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Now that the Super Bowl has been settled, the Fantasy Baseball season has officially begun and it’s time for some infielder ADP analysis.

Over the next few weeks, many Fantasy owners will be hitting the books and preparing for the upcoming campaign. With many drafts having already been completed, we now have some decent data to help us gauge market pricing. ADP information is a great way to see how the public is valuing certain players. Today, we will be conducting infielder ADP analysis and this will be the first installment of the Mispriced Pairs Series.

We will find an assortment of pairs of players where the ADP gap is too large once you consider their past and projected production. We will use the Zeile projections from www.fantasypros.com as they incorporate a variety of sources. Our ADP information will be from the NFBC drafts.

You can lose your draft in the early rounds, but you can win your drafts in the middle-to-late rounds. Finding value is key. If you are able to pick the lower ranked player of the pair, you then free up an earlier round pick to bolster your roster. With the price gap so large, you could even pick the cheaper player a round or two earlier than his ADP suggests and still book a gain.

Now, let’s take a gander at infielder ADP analysis of four pairs of mispriced infielders.

Infielder ADP Analysis; Mispriced Pairs

 

Backstop Battle

J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins (ADP: 170)

AB R HR RBI SB AVG BB/K BABIP LD% Hard% HR/FB
2015 441 49 10 47 8 .259 0.27 .285 21.3% 29.3% 7.9%
2016 Proj 444 49 9 50 8 .252 0.39

Francisco Cervelli, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 247)

AB R HR RBI SB AVG BB/K BABIP LD% Hard% HR/FB
2015 451 56 7 43 1 .295 0.49 .359 21.0% 30.7% 7.3%
2016 Proj 414 49 7 42 1 .285 0.55

When you look at both the 2015 numbers and the projections for next year, you can see that there are only minor differences between Realmuto and Cervelli. Yet, the ADP gap is over six rounds in a 12-team league. Realmuto has a slight speed advantage, while Cervelli will likely posses the stronger batting average. In the grand scheme of things, a single digit stolen base advantage should not be worth nearly 80 picks. Forget the Fish, pick up the Pirate, and enjoy the profits.

 

Second Base Scrap

Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals (ADP: 160)

AB R HR RBI SB AVG BB/K BABIP LD% Hard% HR/FB
2015 499 56 14 73 2 .281 0.82 .278 21.2% 30.8% 8.3%
2016 Proj 535 69 12 67 7 .291 0.67

Neil Walker, New York Mets (ADP: 233)

AB R HR RBI SB AVG BB/K BABIP LD% Hard% HR/FB
2015 543 69 16 71 4 .269 0.40 .306 21.4% 32.0% 9.9%
2016 Proj 518 69 19 67 3 .262 0.55

With both Murphy and Walker moving on to new teams, a little more pressure may be placed on each of them. In fact, this pair becomes even more interesting once you consider that Walker is the man replacing Murphy in the Big Apple.

Murphy’s star is probably shining a little too bright given his tremendous postseason run with the Mets last fall. However, their regular season numbers from last year show that both players performed in a very similar fashion. Once you consider the 2016 projections, it is clear that Walker has a slight power advantage, while Murphy should hit for a higher average.

Park factors may also explain a small portion of the ADP gap, given the unfriendly hitting environment at Citi Field. That being said, a 70-pick gap seems ridiculous. Swat away the Nat, snag the Met, and your Fantasy team will be better off.

 

SS and 3B ADP Analysis

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