Average Draft Position, or an ADP Report is an invaluable tool to use in your Fantasy Football draft preparation.
A player’s ADP gives you a statistic of when he is most likely to be drafted. This can help you formulate your strategy if you are trying to gain the most value with each draft pick.
However, many Fantasy Owners do not use ADP correctly. It sounds stupid, but you can use the factual information provided in an incorrect way.
The key is finding the consensus data that is most relative to your league. You also need to realize that ADP is an average: it takes into account all extremes that a player might get taken.
Besides looking at the average spot that the player is taken, you should look at the sources of data (which platforms the drafts are coming from) as well as the high and low spots. For example, Adrian Peterson has a PPR ADP around eighth overall. If you play on Fantrax, his ADP is sixth. On My Fantasy League he is going 14th. The different rankings at the websites can drive these numbers as well as your own draft.
Earlier this summer I looked at how the ADP had changed from the end of June to the beginning of August. Now, we will see how exponentially more data affects the report. As draft season kicked into full gear this past week, the ADP will be much more representative for where the players are taken in an average league.
So keep your own league situation in mind as you analyze this ADP report from the end of August. I am going to compare the consensus Fantasy Pros ADP from August 1 with the data collected on August 22.
2016 Fantasy Football ADP Report
|Player||ADP 8/1||ADP 8/22||Diff.||Player||ADP 8/1||ADP 8/22||Diff.|
|Foster, Arian||97.3||65.5||31.8||Foster, Arian||115.3||86||29.3|
|Coates, Sammie||150.5||130.8||19.7||Williams, DeAngelo||103.5||89.9||13.6|
|Sproles, Darren||142.3||124.3||18||Denver D/ST||94.3||81.3||13|
|Williams, DeAngelo||103||86||17||Tucker, Justin||153.5||140.9||12.6|
|Washington, DeAndre||162||146||16||Gates, Antonio||125.5||113.9||11.6|
|Thomas, Michael||151.3||136.3||15||Hauschka, Steven||141.3||129.9||11.4|
|Boyd, Tyler||192.3||180.5||11.8||Bennett, Martellus||157.2||146.9||10.3|
|Perriman, Breshad||175||164.3||10.7||Gostkowski, Stephen||118.5||109.1||9.4|
|Booker, Devontae||161.5||151.3||10.2||Aiken, Kamar||156.8||147.8||9|
|Shepard, Sterling||101.3||91.8||9.5||Manning, Eli||94.7||86.1||8.6|
- Arian Foster is far and away the biggest riser over the last three weeks. At the time of the last report, he was already a fast riser in PPR formats. He was seen as a third-down option then, but now it looks like he might be the starting back in Miami.
- DeAngelo Williams is the other back getting a massive boost in ADP. While it may seem weird with LeVeon Bell’s suspension getting reduced, before August 1 some thought he would get it completely wiped out. Now that we know for sure that Williams will get at least three starts, so he becomes a much more valuable commodity.
- The other PPR risers are mostly pass-catching rookies. DeAndre Washington, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Devontae Booker and Sterling Shepard are all showing in the preseason that they will have solid roles in their respective offenses and get plenty of targets.
- I just don’t get it Standard people: a defense and three kickers rising this quickly? Every Fantasy Football League I have played in since I started in 2003 has been some form of PPR, so maybe it’s a different mindset. But I just cannot fathom taking the Denver Defense eight spots before DeAngelo Williams or five spots before Arian Foster. Or that Stephen Gostkowski is going ahead of Antonio Gates. I would guess that the Fantasy newcomers are driving this ADP up, as sites like ESPN push for their “Standard” leagues without PPR.
|Player||ADP 8/1||ADP 8/22||Diff.||Player||ADP 8/1||ADP 8/22||Diff.|
|Smith, Steve||107||143.3||-36.3||Ajayi, Jay||61||84.1||-23.1|
|Williams, Karlos||122.3||158.3||-36||Green-Beckham, Dorial||115.7||134.9||-19.2|
|Green, Ladarius||88.8||123.8||-35||Smith, Steve||107.7||125.7||-18|
|Ajayi, Jay||69.5||101||-31.5||Dixon, Kenneth||129.2||146.3||-17.1|
|Eifert, Tyler||67.8||81.8||-14||Green, Ladarius||95.8||108.9||-13.1|
|Doctson, Josh||152.5||165.8||-13.3||Jackson, Vincent||132.8||144||-11.2|
|Prosise, C.J.||112.3||125.3||-13||Doctson, Josh||135.5||145.8||-10.3|
|Dixon, Kenneth||125.5||138.5||-13||Johnson, Chris||142.2||152.5||-10.3|
|Hogan, Chris||161.8||172.3||-10.5||Parker, DeVante||72.7||82.9||-10.2|
|Romo, Tony||122.5||132.3||-9.8||Yeldon, T.J.||88||97.9||-9.9|
- Karlos Williams, Jay Ajayi and Ladarius Green are the three easy ones to figure out here. Williams was suspended and subsequently released by the Bills this past weekend. However, watch out for a team with a thin RB group picking him up mid-season. Green’s football future is still possibly in jeopardy with concussion headaches. And we already mentioned the Dolphins’ backfield situation and Ajayi’s freefall.
- Josh Doctson seems to be going the exact opposite way of his rookie counterparts. I think people are starting to realize that there are a lot of mouths to feed in Washington, and Kirk Cousins is due for some regression.
- Steve Smith is just getting no love in either format. Everything seems to be good with his rehab/recovery so this one boggles my mind a little bit. Give me the 37-year old former All-Pro over the likes of Kamar Aiken and Breshad Perriman.
- Kenneth Dixon is in a freefall in both formats as well with Justin Forsett looking to take back the majority of touches in the Ravens’ backfield.
- Chris Johnson is falling because of David Johnson’s hype. Once again, I know I’m a broken record on this but I am not a believer. Give me CJ in the 15th Round over DJ in the first.
- Dion Lewis hasn’t shown up on here but he definitely will soon, along with James White on the ADP Risers.
“Jesse James is in line to start…Don’t be surprised if [Ladarius Green] starts the season on IR” https://t.co/EYOzq3nJqb
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) August 18, 2016
These are players whose consensus ADP does not tell the whole story. They have large gaps between their ADP on different sites/platforms, which can be misleading.
|Rounds 1-4||Rounds 5-8|
|Greg Olsen||52||38||14||Dorial Green-Beckham||161||97||64|
|Matt Forte||46||33||13||Josh Gordon||120||64||56|
|DeMarco Murray||57||46||11||Travis Benjamin||153||101||52|
|Dion Lewis||49||39||10||Laquon Treadwell||138||93||45|
|Brandon Marshall||22||13||9||Ladarius Green||156||114||42|
|Julian Edelman||37||28||9||Markus Wheaton||140||100||40|
|Cam Newton||44||35||9||Sterling Shepard||112||74||38|
|Jeremy Maclin||43||34||9||Stefon Diggs||125||89||36|
|Latavius Murray||48||39||9||Jimmy Graham||130||94||36|
|Eric Decker||50||41||9||Torrey Smith||121||86||35|
- As usual, the Top 4 rounds have much less variance in the ADP gaps as the next four.
- The New York Jets’ offensive weapons seem to cause division among Fantasy Analysts, as all three of Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have nearly a round difference in ADP from different sites.
- Some of the bigger differences can easily be accounted for with injuries (Lewis, Green) and change of scenery/status (Green-Beckham, Murray and Gordon), as well as some guys coming back from injury (Edelman, Graham).
- I expected more quarterbacks on the list, but with the “Draft your QB Late” trend taking hold, there’s just not that many going in the first eight rounds (seven total).
- Fantrax has Sterling Shepard at 112, almost FOUR rounds later than some of the other sites. This makes me want to steal him in some Fantrax leagues immediately.
- These are some of the most important trends mentioned, because theses ADP’s are derived from the different site’s stock rankings. I would make a tab on your spreadsheet that compares the site your league is on to the overall ADP so that you know where each player stands.
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