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I’m here today to look at the NFBC Average Draft Position (ADP) Rankings that are published over at NFBC.  

In the table below I will show the NFBC Top 150 player rankings with their average pick (Avg Pick), minimum pick (Min Pick) and maximum pick (Max Pick).

I also provided some notes on the Top 50 players by position.

Also, be sure and check out our positional rankings.

Now that the formality is out of the way, I will look in depth at the rankings.

NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis

Overall Rankings

RankPlayerTeamPosAvg PickMin PickMax Pick
1Mike TroutLAACF1.0812
2Mookie BettsBosRF2.5715
3Jose AltuveHou2B4.6428
4Kris BryantChC3B4.76110
5Clayton KershawLADSP4.83110
6Nolan ArenadoCol3B5.0929
7Paul GoldschmidtAri1B5.86210
8Manny MachadoBal3B8.45412
9Bryce HarperWasRF10.35715
10Trea TurnerWas2B10.67118
11Max ScherzerWasSP11.25325
12Josh DonaldsonTor3B11.84819
13Anthony RizzoChC1B12.99819
14Miguel CabreraDet1B14.97824
15Madison BumgarnerSFSP15.36921
16Charlie BlackmonColCF16.461024
17Carlos CorreaHouSS16.741223
18Noah SyndergaardNYMSP19.931030
19Corey SeagerLADSS20.251132
20Jonathan VillarMilSS20.36830
21Chris SaleBosSP20.811230
22Joey VottoCin1B23.581441
23Corey KluberCleSP23.891635
24Starling MartePitLF24.081335
25Edwin EncarnacionCle1B25.091538
26Freddie FreemanAtl1B26.51940
27Xander BogaertsBosSS28.031640
28Francisco LindorCleSS29.841947
29Trevor StoryColSS31.821645
30Robinson CanoSea2B32.511844
31Jake ArrietaChCSP33.122055
32George SpringerHouRF34.21552
33Yu DarvishTexSP35.032256
34Brian DozierMin2B35.51755
35A.J. PollockAriCF35.641853
36Jon LesterChCSP36.32155
37Daniel MurphyWas2B38.592462
38Giancarlo StantonMiaRF38.782159
39Rougned OdorTex2B39.311655
40Buster PoseySFC39.342060
41Nelson CruzSeaRF41.062359
42Justin VerlanderDetSP42.052357
43Johnny CuetoSFSP42.442559
44David PriceBosSP44.593066
45Dee GordonMia2B45.952764
46Aroldis ChapmanNYYMR47.282667
47Kenley JansenLADMR48.292864
48Gary SanchezNYYC49.421767
49Ryan BraunMilLF50.153269
50Billy HamiltonCinCF50.782979
51J.D. MartinezDetRF52.523375
52Ian DesmondColCF53.0820105
53Chris ArcherTBSP53.512569
54Jonathan LucroyTexC53.633569
55Jean SeguraSea2B54.243176
56Stephen StrasburgWasSP55.073672
57Carlos CarrascoCleSP56.044271
58Wil MyersSD1B57.713278
59Zach BrittonBalMR57.754869
60Christian YelichMiaLF57.863980
61Yoenis CespedesNYMCF59.083476
62Jose AbreuCWS1B62.193186
63Gregory PolancoPitRF65.24081
64Kyle HendricksChCSP65.513982
65Carlos GonzalezColRF66.025098
66Kyle SeagerSea3B67.934089
67Andrew McCutchenPitCF68.233997
68Carlos MartinezStLSP68.995788
69Mark TrumboBalRF69.724397
70Mark MelanconSFMR69.865392
71Jacob deGromNYMSP71.514396
72Matt CarpenterStL3B72.334099
73Seung Hwan OhStLMR73.625593
74Todd FrazierCWS3B75.0841105
75Ian KinslerDet2B76.1751110
76Kyle SchwarberChCLF77.1834116
77Craig KimbrelBosMR77.375297
78Roberto OsunaTorMR81.8961103
79Edwin DiazSeaMR82.2356105
80Hanley RamirezBos1B82.2339113
81Chris DavisBal1B82.3344121
82Cole HamelsTexSP82.7956119
83Justin UptonDetLF83.6562109
84Adrian BeltreTex3B83.762111
85DJ LeMahieuCol2B86.5553120
86Wade DavisChCMR87.5660153
87Masahiro TanakaNYYSP88.9657115
88Willson ContrerasChCC91.465128
89Ken GilesHouMR91.9875124
90Anthony RendonWas3B92.1958121
91David DahlColLF92.4957118
92Alex BregmanHou3B92.8871121
93Jason KipnisCle2B93.4261117
94Jose RamirezCle3B96.9961121
95Zack GreinkeAriSP97.663126
96Matt KempAtlRF98.568132
97Kenta MaedaLADSP100.8676129
98Khris DavisOakLF101.0268129
99Danny DuffyKCSP102.8977146
100Evan GattisHouC103.1266148
101Alex ColomeTBMR103.5487141
102Aaron SanchezTorSP103.9167143
103Kelvin HerreraKCMR104.777321
104Eric HosmerKC1B104.7664148
105Andrew MillerCleMR105.1271147
106Cody AllenCleMR105.8376131
107Evan LongoriaTB3B106.5873137
108Jose QuintanaCWSSP107.1474135
109Rick PorcelloBosSP109.6868144
110Julio TeheranAtlSP111.4270145
111J.T. RealmutoMiaC112.7281138
112Jeurys FamiliaNYMMR112.9880148
113Gerrit ColePitSP113.9575146
114Eduardo NunezSFSS115.4286156
115Miguel SanoMinRF116.1573161
116Adam JonesBalCF11776145
117Jose BautistaTorRF117.1772151
118Javier BaezChC3B118.4862162
119Carlos SantanaCle1B121.2894155
120Odubel HerreraPhiCF121.3392151
121David RobertsonCWSMR125.2191162
122Maikel FrancoPhi3B126.7976196
123Adam EatonWasRF128.2895176
124Justin TurnerLAD3B128.2864175
125Rich HillLADSP128.4396159
126Salvador PerezKCC128.7284163
127Danny SalazarCleSP129.1999172
128Lorenzo CainKCCF129.6683179
129A.J. RamosMiaMR13084175
130Stephen PiscottyStLRF130.1586163
131Jose PerazaCin2B130.6975187
132Francisco RodriguezDetMR130.93101161
133Andrew BenintendiBosLF133.9999166
134Addison RussellChCSS134.4431175
135Felix HernandezSeaSP138.62105184
136Albert PujolsLAA1B139.5778191
137Michael FulmerDetSP139.691190
138Dustin PedroiaBos2B142.71108178
139Tanner RoarkWasSP142.9591191
140Alex ReyesStLSP143.3391686
141Matt HarveyNYMSP144.5682181
142Dallas KeuchelHouSP144.7895184
143Sam DysonTexMR145.0995199
144Jackie Bradley Jr.BosCF145.49100196
145Yasmani GrandalLADC145.98102196
146Tony WatsonPitMR147.9106185
147Yasmany TomasAriLF148.2296195
148Jake LambAri3B148.3118203
149Byron BuxtonMinCF148.36104212
150Kevin GausmanBalSP148.79117196

 

Let’s take a look at some interesting notes I see in the first 50 players.

Catcher

NFBC Catcher Rankings

 

The first catcher off the board(no surprise), is Buster Posey. Posey is the consensus top catcher. And if he doesn’t have it already, he will more than likely get 1B eligibility sometime during the season. What blows me away is that Gary Sanchez is ranked as the second catcher and the 48th overall player.

I love what Sanchez did in his limited time in the bigs last year, but to have him ranked ahead of Jonathan Lucroy seems odd to me. Some will say “well it’s only six spots.” It’s not just the gap between the two catchers, look at the other position players being overlooked in favor of Sanchez. Ryan Braun, Billy Hamilton, J.D. Martinez and Ian Desmond.

You are also passing on an established arm in Chris Archer who could be dealt to a contender during the season. Archer had 19 Quality Starts (QS) last season. Which was good for 21st in the league. He also had 233 strikeouts in 201.1 innings pitched.

Another surprise is Willson Contreras, who will get outfield eligibility, all the way at 88th. Fantasy Baseball is all about flexibility.

 

First Basemen

NFBC First Basemen Rankings

 

No surprise that Paul Goldschmidt is first. Not only is he a power hitter, but he can also steal you bases. That type of player is not usually someone you find at first base. The next names off the board are pretty standard.

Two guys that didn’t make it into the Top 150 that I think could surprise some people are Tommy Joseph and Brandon Belt. Joseph has the full time job this year and did admirably last year, splitting time with Ryan Howard. And Belt, the Baby Giraffe, is coming into his own with the Giants. I would not be surprised to see them both finish ahead of Eric Hosmer, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Second Basemen

NFBC Second Basemen Rankings

 

The biggest surprise here is Trea Turner going as the second 2B and 10th player overall. I love Turner’s skills, I’m just not sure he should be going as high as he is. I go into more detail here.

The same reason I believe Turner is going too high, is a reason why Jose Peraza could be a good poach later in drafts; steals. He’s got the starting gig and should get some reasonable home run numbers in Great American Ballpark. He could be a steal as the 12th second baseman off the board.

 

Third Basemen

NFBC Third Basemen Rankings

 

We are splitting hairs with the top third basemen. Kris Bryant is the reigning MVP, Manny Machado has Shortstop eligibility and Nolan Arenado is the NL home run co-champ with Chris Carter.

Maikel Franco could out perform his number 14 ranking.

Players that could jump to the 10-15 range include Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos. Ranked as the 19th and 20th third basemen of the board. I see both players doing better than Jake Lamb this year.

 

Shortstop

NFBC Shortstops Rankings

 

I have no problem with four of the Top 5. However, can Jonathan Villar replicate his steal numbers? I’m not sure that he can.

The next wild card is Trevor Story at six. He was having a very nice season before his injury. Playing in Coors Field helps, and I cannot say to grab anyone behind him before he goes off the board. I would say just try and manage expectations.

Someone who could soar up the ranks is Orlando Arcia, who made his major league debut last seasonand is also one-year younger than Francisco Lindor. Let’s take a look at their 5 years in the Minor Leagues

 

Name Runs Hits HR RBIs SB AVG OBP SLG
Arcia 312 584 30 247 104 .282 .339 .404
Lindor 253 459 21 162 90 .279 .354 .384

 

As you can see, Arcia was the better player in the minors. Lindor has adapted to become a very good hitter. Maybe this is the year Arcia breaks out, but with a 230 pick gap between them, you can get real value here.

 

Outfielder

NFBC Outfielder Rankings

 

It is no surprise that Mike Trout is the consensus number one overall pick. He should be. The only real complaint I have in the Top 10 is Giancarlo Stanton. I understand what his power potential is, but he just cannot stay healthy. He’s been susceptible hamstring and quadricep injuries. Those can be chalked up to conditioning, even though he is a physical specimen. The two injuries out of his control were the hit by pitch in the face and the left hamate bone fracture.

Meanwhile, Stanton is going 38th overall. While being the eighth outfielder off the board might be a discount to some, I would look elsewhere at that current cost.

Other players that could make some noise in the rankings are Ian Desmond, Stanton’s teammate Christian Yelich, David Dahl and Andrew Benintendi.

 

Starting Pitcher

NFBC Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

There are not a whole lot of problems at the top. The biggest questions in the Top 15 is Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco’s health.

Looking toward the bottom of the rankings, Jose Quintana, Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey stand out. In fact, it seems more likely that Quintana gets dealt during the season. With his QS numbers (tied for sixth in the league with 23 last season), if he’s moved to a team that gives him run support, look out.

Next question is can King Felix can bounce back or is his decline real. His innings, strikeouts and K/9 are down across the board.

The final question is how will Harvey bounce back from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery? If he can come back to 80 percent of what he used to be, he could be a nice grab in the middle of your draft.

 

Relief Pitcher

NFBC Relief Pitcher Rankings

No real surprises at the top. Bullpens are always changing, but a couple names to keep an eye on are Wade Davis, Alex Colome, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Brandon Maurer.

Davis is coming back from a forearm strain. Regardless, the Cubs thought he checked out well enough to send Jorge Soler for him in a trade this off-season.

Alex Colome and David Robertson are potential trade candidates.

Jeurys Familia is coming back from suspension and, as a result, may lose his job altogether to Addison Reed in the interim.

Brandon Maurer will be trying to hold onto the job as he will have Carter Capps breathing down his neck.

 

So there are my thoughts on the NFBC ADP Rankings. Who do you believe is ranked too high, or someone who will outperform their current ADP? Let us know in the comments.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
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Derek Harvey

Derek Harvey

Derek is an avid fantasy player, playing keeper and dynasty formats for two decades. This is his first year writing about fantasy sports. Have any questions about dynasty football, baseball or basketball? Ask me on twitter @derek_harvey.
Derek Harvey

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