Being able to identify the overvalued hitters in you draft allows you to get value later on, and give you a better chance to win your league. Injuries play a big part during the Fantasy season. The teams who can minimize their misses puts them at a greater advantage over their opponents.
Obviously, hitters stats fluctuate from year to year. Some have breakout years, only to be followed up by a sohomore slump. Others have breakouts and then just cannot live up to the expectations. Baseball is a grind, and if a hitter rests on their laurels, the game will inevitably catch up to them and make them an afterthought. The last statement is an extreme. I’m not suggesting these players will no longer be relevant.
Just because hitters are on this list does not mean they do not hold value. It just means the risk in taking them where they are being drafted is not worth it. I will be using the NFBC ADP for the rankings.
I will not necessarily be looking at the same position for each comparison. We have our Mispriced Pairs articles for that. I am looking strictly at each players Average Draft Position(ADP).
Let’s look at some overvalued hitters to stay away from come draft day.
Jonathan Villar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 20.31)
Before the breakout in Milwauakee in 2016, Jonathan Villar wasn’t on a whole lot of Fantasy players radar. Before we move on, let’s take a brief look at his career to date:
Now let’s take a look at few players that can be had later, but may provide more value than Jonathan Villar.
George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (ADP: 34.17)
Let’s take a look at what Springer has done for us since the 2014 season.
I would much rather bet on a guy leading off for a much better Astros lineup. And he is durable as well. Springer played all 162 games last year.
Now let’s look at someone who has done well for a while, but does have some injury concerns.
A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 35.85)
Pollock has had his fair share of injuries. But when he has been on the field, he has done well. Now fully healed from his fractured elbow and groin strain, Pollock is eager to get back to work. Let’s look at what you can expect from Pollock if he has a full season as he did in 2015:
Again, Pollock will also be the leadoff man, like Villar and Springer. Pollock does not come without risk, but getting him 25 picks later is easier to justify if he doesn’t live up to the expectations.
I just cannot bank on a guy who had 45 stolen bases in the minors, and hadn’t gotten more than 20 before last year. Yes, the Brewers will run, but most of Villar’s value is tied more to stolen bases, which are hard to predict from year to year.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins (ADP: 38.43)
I hate to add to the injury narrative, but Giancarlo Stanton cannot stay on the field. Whether it be soft tissue injuries, such as hamstring or quad injuries. Or the ones out of his control like the pitch to the face and the hand fracture. Either way, grabbing Stanton at the 38th pick is a little too rich for me. Let’s look at his last three years:
Those are really good numbers for him over that time. But once we look at some players going 11-20 picks later, you may not want to pay for Stanton’s production.
Need someone to draft instead of Giancarlo Stanton? Check out these options:
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 49.64)
Since his PED suspension, Braun has done pretty well for himself. While his home run numbers have dropped some, he is still a really good talent. Compare him to Stanton, and he is just a more durable and reliable player. While his team isn’t as good as the Marlins on paper, he still puts up the runs and RBIs. All the while having a better average than Mr. Marlin.
J.D. Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 52.31)
Now let’s look at Martinez and what he has been doing in the Motor City. Hitting in a better lineup where he hits in front of an all-time great (Miguel Cabrera), Martinez will see his share of pitches to hit. His OBP is close to Stanton, but his average is where he excels. He’s no slouch in the home run and RBI department either. He’s just a solid overall hitter.
Ian Desmond, 1B, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 52.75)
The case study of Ian Desmond has a more intriguing twist this year. He will help more in stolen bases, but now he gets to call Coors Field home. With the team around him, he could be a much better player coming 16 picks later. Not only that, he’s as durable as they come. Other than his first year in 2009, Desmond has topped over 150 games each season, except in 2012, but he still played in 130 games. I could see him in the 30/30 club this year.
Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (ADP: 58.15)
Now let’s look at Stanton’s teammate, Christian Yelich. He is finally starting to come into his own. As you can see he doesn’t hurt you in any one area. He’s been pretty durable as well, playing in 144, 126 and 155 games the last three years. Hopefully Don Mattingly will let the kid run so he could get close to a 20/20 season.
Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees (ADP: 49.43)
This one, no matter how many times I see it, I just cannot believe. Yes, Gary Sanchez has a bright future. Yes, he came up and set the baseball world on fire. But he cannot reasonably sustain the tear he was on. Once he gets the everyday grind as an everyday catcher and the teams in the league get a book on him, things will even out.
Now he could regress and then adjust , which is entirely possible. But right now he is only going 10 picks later than an established Buster Posey (39.44). And ahead of guy like Jonathan Lucroy (53.69). Let’s look at the extrapolation of Sanchez’s numbers.
I do not see him ever coming close to a 50 home run season. Once the team has been together and they get better, I could see 70-80 RBIs. But not the numbers that he put up last year. This year he will not surprise anyone.
Now let’s take a look at a player going 140 picks later.
Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 193.79)
Molina has been the poster child for catchers the past decade. His defense is stellar and his bat has been solid the past eight years. His type of production is what you look for. Especially when he can help your pitching staff get outs by calling a great game. Let’s take a look at this past season, when the Cardinals were not at their best.
Molina doesn’t crush home runs like others, but he has had three double-digit home run seasons. But at least with Molina, I’m getting a floor I can handle, with some upside for more at a much cheaper price.
So there are my overvalued hitters for the upcoming season.
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