Before we begin, let me explain my definition of a bust. I use the term “bust” as a player who does not live up to their draft day value. Some players can be more of a bust than others. Some players have a normal season, and then break out the next year. The question is, is the break out real, or is it simply an outlier.
Certain players can struggle, but may not live up to their expectations. Second base is deeper than it has been in recent years.
You have veterans switching teams, while others are getting their feet wet in their first season as “the man.” Another is coming back from a PED suspension season, and the other is going way too high for my liking.
The players mentioned below fall into my criteria of busts. These players will still have value, but the argument I will set before you, is that their ADP may not pay off for you come draft day.
Now let’s take a look at players I believe will not live up to the draft day hype in 2017.
Second Base Busts
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Some people are actually drafting Trea Turner in the first round of redraft leagues. While I could make the argument in Dynasty leagues, drafting Turner this high as a proven player is getting a little crazy. I completely understand the excitement. In his 73 games in 2016, Turner hit an absurd .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 stolen bases. Numbers like that get people chomping at the bit for what that player could be.
And at just 23 years old, Turner has a bright future ahead of him. Even in that lineup, thinking that the baseball world will not catch up to Turner is not logical. I’m high on Turner, but to say you will draft him ahead of names like Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and in some instances, his teammate Bryce Harper, is crazy high. He will still be a very valuable asset, but he should not being going as high as he is at this point in his career.
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
How about those 42 home runs! Everyone was very excited to own Brian Dozier and his home runs in 2016. Unfortunately, this only propels his draft status come draft day. And with that comes a higher possibility of busting. Looking at his split stats, it was two very different halves for Dozier.
Pre All-Star break, he hit .246/.335/.450 with 14 home runs and seven stolen bases. After the break, he hit a whopping .291/.344/.646, doubling his home runs to 28 and 11 stolen bases. The more impressive, and unrealistic part, is 23 of those home runs came in the last 2 months. Getting value from Dozier will not be the problem. The problem will be asking him to repeat the year he had last year which I believe is asking too much.
Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins
Oh Dee Gordon. After serving his 80-game suspension, Gordon came back and underwhelmed with his .268 average. He did, however, still manage to get 30 steals, which is what gave him value in 2016. Over the past two years, Gordon hit .289 and .333, respectively. He also stole 122 bases over that span as well.
As with Turner, I expect some regression from what he was a couple years ago. You also have to keep in mind, Gordon would incur a 162 game ban if he tests positive again. Where Gordon is being drafted, coupled with the fact he is coming off a year in which he was hit with the 80-game suspension, he is not someone you want to trust with such a high pick. Maybe Gordon can bounce back, or maybe last year is a sign of things to come for his career.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
People still remember Javier Baez and his impact on the World Series run of the Chicago Cubs in 2016. The problem is, for Fantasy purposes, they are looking through rose colored glasses. Baez is no doubt an amazing talent, but will he get the regular paying time everyone wants him to have?
The fact remains that Ben Zobrist is still the starting second baseman for the Cubs. Now you add in Kyle Schwarber to occupy an outfield spot, which leaves Baez as a super utility player for 2017, barring an injury. His defense will get him into games, but his swing and miss rate will keep his value in check.
Much like Turner, his Dynasty value is not in question, but for redraft leagues, swiping Baez at his current ADP could leave you caught in a pickle.
There are the second base bust i recommend that you try and avoid at your Fantasy Baseball draft this year.
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