2017 Fantasy Lookout: Power-Speed Hitters; Will The 20/20 Pace Continue?

By on June 3, 2017
20/20 pace Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Now that we are essentially at the one-third point of the 2017 campaign, we can have fun with numbers and extrapolate some statistics through the end of the year. In today’s Fantasy Lookout, we will see which power-speed hitters are on a 20/20 pace.

Whenever you extrapolate statistics, you need to make sure that you are looking at the bigger picture. Given the fact that a 50 game sample is quite small, a hot streak can have a large impact on any extrapolation. As we uncover the hitters on a current 20/20 pace, we will be sure to provide commentary on the sustainability of the pace being maintained.

Given the amount of games played, we will use a minimum of seven home runs and stolen bases as our threshold for a 20/20 pace.

Last year, there were nine hitters that reached the 20/20 plateau. The list consisted of Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Wil Myers, Melvin Upton Jr, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Ian Desmond.

There is obviously a ton of value in finding the hitters that can provide meaningful contributions in a number of roto categories. Let’s now take a look at the potential members of the 2017 20/20 club.

Will the 20/20 Pace Continue?

Aaron Hicks, OF, New York Yankees

 

Aaron Hicks has compiled eight long balls and has swiped seven bags so far in 2017. In fact, he has already equaled last year’s home run total in just one-third of the at-bats. Hicks will be hard pressed to maintain his pace given a lack of playing time as the Yankees’ fourth outfielder. He is also rocking an inflated HR/FB ratio of 22.2-percent, which appears to be unsustainable given that his batted ball profile is in line with his career marks and his career HR/FB ratio comes in at 10.6-percent.

He is also rocking an inflated HR/FB ratio of 22.2-percent, which appears to be unsustainable given that his batted ball profile is in line with his career marks and his career HR/FB ratio comes in at 10.6-percent.

Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins

 

Brian Dozier has so far recorded eight home runs and eight stolen bases in the early going. After falling just two stolen bases short of his second 20/20 season last year, Dozier looks like a decent bet to stamp his membership card once again in 2017. He has managed a

He has managed a career-best walk rate and on-base-percentage so far this year and that should allow for plenty of stolen base opportunities. Dozier is also on track to record his fourth consecutive 20 home run season, which seems likely when you consider that he is making hard contact at a career-best rate and that should offset a slightly lower fly ball and pull rate.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Kevin Pillar has made himself comfortable atop the Toronto batting order so far in 2017, as he has already notched seven home runs and eight stolen bases. Pillar is very likely in the midst of his first career 20/20 season. As long as he maintains his career best on-base-percentage, led by his new career best walk rate, Pillar should continue to provide his Fantasy owners with a plethora of stolen base attempts as the Jays leadoff hitter. He is also squaring up the ball as well as he has at any point of his career, evidenced by his

He is also squaring up the ball as well as he has at any point of his career, evidenced by his career-best hard hit rate of 30.3-percent (previous career high was 27.2-percent in 2016).

Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox

 

As a consensus Top 5 pick heading into drafts this year, Mookie Betts is basically doing what everyone expected. Betts is well on his way to back-to-back 20/20 seasons as he has hit nine bombs and stolen eight bases already. His power definitely is not in question, as he is on pace for new career highs in both hard hit rate and pull rate. Betts has managed this all while recording a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate. Going forward, he should be an even greater threat on the base paths as his .265 BABIP regresses towards his career mark of .311.

Betts has managed this all while recording a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate. Going forward, he should be an even greater threat on the base paths as his .265 BABIP regresses towards his career mark of .311.

Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

 

The transformation of Jose Altuve from a light hitting speedster to a middle of the order five-category monster has been very impressive. Altuve has already hit seven home runs and stolen 10 bases this year, putting him on pace for his second straight 20/20 campaign. His speed is still elite as he is on track for his sixth consecutive 30-plus steal season. With his hard hit and pull rates down from last year, he may struggle to surpass his 24 home run total from 2016, however, eclipsing the 20 home run plateau is definitely a serious possibility.

His speed is still elite as he is on track for his sixth consecutive 30-plus steal season. With his hard hit and pull rates down from last year, he may struggle to surpass his 24 home run total from 2016, however, eclipsing the 20 home run plateau is definitely a serious possibility.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

 

Mike Trout was putting together another AL MVP season until he required surgery on his left thumb this past week. Having already accumulated 16 home runs and 10 stolen bases, Trout had done nothing but show why he is Fantasy Baseball’s premier talent. If everything goes to plan, he should be back on the field sometime in late July. If he does indeed return before August, there is nothing stopping him from having the fourth 20/20 season of his career. One can only imagine what his 2017 numbers would have looked like if he had stayed healthy.

If everything goes to plan, he should be back on the field sometime in late July. If he does indeed return before August, there is nothing stopping him from having the fourth 20/20 season of his career. One can only imagine what his 2017 numbers would have looked like if he had stayed healthy.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

 

Paul Goldschmidt is arguably in the midst of his best season yet. He is the only player not named Trout to already have double-digit totals in both home runs (12) and stolen bases (12). If the season were to end today, Goldschmidt would set a new career high in both hard hit rate and fly ball rate, which is great for his power outlook for the remainder of 2017. Goldschmidt has also significantly cut down on his strikeout rate, helping him achieve a new career high

Goldschmidt has also significantly cut down on his strikeout rate, helping him achieve a new career high on-base- percentage, which should continue to allow him to be productive with respect to stolen bases. Since he is already more than halfway to his third straight 20/20 season with over two-thirds of the season remaining, Goldschmidt’s membership to the exclusive club can be safely assumed.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

 

Always a threat on the bases, evidenced by his eight straight 20-plus stolen base seasons, Elvis Andrus, who currently has seven home runs and 12 stolen bases, appears to have added a new dimension to his game so far in 2017: power. Andrus’ current hard hit rate would be a new career high, as would his pull rate and fly ball rate. A material jump up in his swinging strike rate and strikeout rate (both new career worsts), further confirm his new approach at the dish.

Given his track record, I would place doubt on Andrus getting to 20 home runs, especially when you consider that his career high came last year with a paltry total of eight. That being said, with his new plan at the plate and given his age of 28, a power surge is a distinct possibility.

In the end, I believe he will fall short. Maybe he ends up with a home run total in the low teens to go along with his usual 25 or so stolen bases.

 

As you can see, many of the hitters on a 20/20 pace are some of Fantasy’s best, all you have to do is look where they place in the rest-of-season rankings.  Hitters that can provide across the board production are rare and therefore extremely valuable. Until the next Fantasy Lookout, enjoy the games!

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball
Rankings | Waiver Wire | Daily Fantasy Baseball | Bullpen Briefs | Rookie Report | Injury Report | Pitching Planner | Hitting Planner | Player Analysis

Data courtesy of www.fangraphs.com

Fabian Taylor
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Fabian Taylor

Fabian Taylor lives in Vancouver, BC. In his previous life, he traded natural gas for a couple firms in Calgary. He now trades stocks, bonds, and commodities out of a float home office. Family, finance and Fantasy Sports -- Is there anything else?
Fabian Taylor
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