2017 Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings: Regression To the Mean

By on April 18, 2017
2017 Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings Photo Credit: Arturo Pardavila III

Week 2 of the baseball season has now come to a close. In last weeks 2017 Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings article, we said to not take too much consideration into hot and cold starts.

Baseball is a long season, and takes the longest time out of any sport for stats to actually be trustworthy. So early on in the season you have to normally expect a player to produce like he has normally produced in his career rather than having the first few weeks be indicative of an entire season.

While there still are some exceptions, we have seen many players bounce back from cold starts or go back down to earth after starting out on fire.

However, just like we had in our previous week, there are some players who’s hot or cold starts may actually indicate their future performance going forward. Also, there are some particular stars that we are going to cover that have gone back to their usual ways.

So, before we reveal this weeks 2017 Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings, let’s go over a few players who deserve some extra attention.

2017 Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings

Stock Up

Daniel Murphy, 2B, Washington Nationals

After a breakout season last year, Fantasy owners still were a little cautious when drafting Daniel Murphy this season. There was reason for this as well: he was a proven .290 hitter (valuable, but not elite) who didn’t do much else. Then all of a sudden, he batted .347 on his way to a batting title, almost doubled his previous career high in home runs, and topped 100 RBI for the first time in his career when his previous career high was 78.

However, Murphy has quieted doubters early on this season. He is batting .408 through 50 plate appearances this season with two home runs, 10 RBI and seven runs scored. This should fully wipe out any doubts of Murphy’s elite Fantasy status, and that leads to a pretty decent rise in our rankings.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets

Yoenis Cespedes is an elite Fantasy player, there is no arguing that. He is one of the few players who can hit over 30 home runs without punting the batting average category. Fantasy owners may have been surprised to see a slow start from Cespedes, but the sample size was too little to begin to worry about. During this past week, Cespedes raked, including one game where he hit three home runs.

He now has six home runs, nine runs scored and 10 RBI through 53 plate appearances on the year. Cespedes should be able to build off of his last few great seasons with the Mets, and this week of production ensures that that first week was only a fluke.

Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami Marlins

Coming into the season, everyone knew that Dee Gordon would be one of the best sources of stolen bases out there. The question was if his batting average would be able to propel him from good to great like in years past. Last season, Gordon missed a lot of time due to injury, but his important counting stats looked on par with years past. The batting average was the stat of worry for him. In 2014 he batted .289 and in 2015 he batted .333. Both seasons he put up great run and stolen base totals on his way to huge years. Last year, other than injuries, he was held back by his pedestrian .268 batting average.

I figured that Gordon would have a bounce back year, and for that reason, I tried to grab him in as many leagues as possible. This move has rewarded me so far. After a bit of a cold start in the first week, he tore the cover off the ball in the second week, and his batting average now sits at a clean .300. If he can keep this up, he could prove to be a huge steal and one of the elite Fantasy second baseman this year.

 

Stock Down

Kenta Maeda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Coming into the season, I thought that Kenta Maeda was extremely overrated in the Fantasy world. He had a good season last year, but I don’t think it was good enough to warrant his ADP, which hovered right around the #100 mark. He was easily not a Top 100 player for me and I made sure not to touch him in my drafts.

This has also turned out to be a good move for me. Maeda has given up 11 runs over 14 IP (three starts), giving him a 7.07 ERA to open up the year. While I expect that he should still end up being a solid pitcher this year, I seriously doubt he will live up to his ADP.

Todd Frazier, 3B, Chicago White Sox

Going into this year, I had two players that I recognized to have pretty much the exact same profile. They were both aging sluggers who had been consistent Fantasy studs on the same team before being traded to a new team last year and struggling. I thought that both would finally adjust to their new teams this season and be great value picks. One of these players was Jay Bruce, who has been playing great to start the season, making me look good and just missing the Stock Up section of this very article. The other one is Todd Frazier, and he is a different story.

Through 31 plate appearances, Frazier is batting a mere .111 with one home run, a solo shot that gave him his only RBI so far on the year. While it would be a stretch to expect this level of bad from Frazier for the rest of the year, I think it would be fair to say that last year was an accurate representation of Frazier.

 

2017 Rest-Of-The-Season Rankings

RankNameTeamPositions
1Mike TroutLAACF
2Kris BryantCHC1B,3B,LF,RF
3Nolan ArenadoCOL3B
4Paul GoldschmidtARI1B
5Bryce HarperWSHRF
6Jose AltuveHOU2B
7Clayton KershawLADSP
8Manny MachadoBAL3B,SS
9Josh DonaldsonTOR3B
10Mookie BettsBOSRF
11Noah SyndergaardNYMSP
12Miguel CabreraDET1B
13Anthony RizzoCHC1B
14Madison BumgarnerSFSP
15Joey VottoCIN1B
16Charlie BlackmonCOLCF
17Max ScherzerWSHSP
18Corey SeagerLADSS
19A.J. PollockARICF
20Starling MartePITLF,CF
21Freddie FreemanATL1B
22Nelson CruzSEARF,DH
23Chris SaleBOSSP
24Trea TurnerWSH2B,CF
25Corey KluberCLESP
26Daniel MurphyWSH1B,2B
27Yoenis CespedesNYMLF,CF
28Robinson CanoSEA2B
29Jake ArrietaCHCSP
30Francisco LindorCLESS
31Carlos CorreaHOUSS
32Edwin EncarnacionCLE1B,DH
33Rougned OdorTEX2B
34George SpringerHOUCF,RF
35Brian DozierMIN2B
36Ryan BraunMILLF
37Yu DarvishTEXSP
38Christian YelichMIALF,CF
39Dee GordonMIA2B
40Trevor StoryCOLSS
41Carlos GonzalezCOLRF
42Giancarlo StantonMIARF
43Jon LesterCHCSP
44Stephen StrasburgWSHSP
45Chris DavisBAL1B
46Justin VerlanderDETSP
47Johnny CuetoSFSP
48Xander BogaertsBOSSS
49Jacob DeGromNYMSP
50Chris ArcherTBSP
51Jonathan VillarMIL2B,3B,SS
52Buster PoseySFC,1B
53Jose AbreuCWS1B
54Wil MyersSD1B,RF
55Matt CarpenterSTL1B,2B,3B
56Ian KinslerDET2B
57Adrian BeltreTEX3B
58DJ LeMahieuCOL2B
59Justin UptonDETLF,CF
60Kyle SchwarberCHCC,LF
61Khris DavisOAKLF,DH
62Andrew McCutchenPITCF,RF
63Adam JonesBALCF
64Kenley JansenLADRP
65Carlos MartinezSTLSP
66Aroldis ChapmanNYYRP
67Jose BautistaTORRF,DH
68Carlos CarrascoCLESP
69Zach BrittonBALRP
70Jean SeguraSEA2B,SS
71Cole HamelsTEXSP
72David PriceBOSSP
73Zack GreinkeARISP
74Jonathan LucroyTEXC,1B
75Matt HarveyNYMSP
76Billy HamiltonCINCF
77Gregory PolancoPITLF,RF
78J.D. MartinezDETRF
79Gerrit ColePITSP
80Kyle SeagerSEA3B
81Mark TrumboBALRF,DH
82Kyle HendricksCHCSP
83Mark MelanconSFRP
84Evan LongoriaTB3B
85Dallas KeuchelHOUSP
86Jose QuintanaCWSSP
87Carlos SantanaCLE1B,DH
88Adam EatonWSHCF,RF
89Gary SanchezNYYC
90Edwin DiazSEARP
91Ian DesmondCOLLF,CF
92Dustin PedroiaBOS2B
93Julio TeheranATLSP
94Seung-Hwan OhSTLRP
95Lorenzo CainKCCF,RF
96Wade DavisCHCRP
97Albert PujolsLAA1B,DH
98Aaron SanchezTORSP
99Stephen PiscottySTLCF,RF
100Eric HosmerKC1B
101Odubel HerreraPHICF
102Hanley RamirezBOS1B
103Matt KempATLLF,RF
104Anthony RendonWSH3B
105Roberto OsunaTORRP
106Craig KimbrelBOSRP
107Rick PorcelloBOSSP
108Kenneth GilesHOURP
109Kendrys MoralesTOR1B,RF,DH
110Danny SalazarCLESP
111Justin TurnerLAD3B
112Miguel SanoMIN3B,RF,DH
113Todd FrazierCWS1B,3B
114Kelvin HerreraKCRP
115Aledmys DiazSTLSS
116Brandon BeltSF1B
117Jose PerazaCIN2B,SS,LF,CF
118J.T. RealmutoMIAC
119Marcus StromanTORSP
120Kevin GausmanBALSP
121Addison RussellCHCSS
122Rich HillLADSP
123Willson ContrerasCHCC,LF
124Cody AllenCLERP
125Jay BruceNYMRF
126Jason KipnisCLE2B
127Marcell OzunaMIALF,CF,RF
128Masahiro TanakaNYYSP
129Danny DuffyKCSP,RP
130Jeurys FamiliaNYMRP
131Kenta MaedaLADSP
132Felix HernandezSEASP
133Andrew MillerCLERP
134Jose RamirezCLE2B,3B,LF
135Jackie BradleyBOSCF
136Adrian GonzalezLAD1B
137Michael FulmerDETSP
138Tanner RoarkWSHSP
139Alexander ColomeTBRP
140Jake LambARI3B
141Salvador PerezKCC
142Adam DuvallCINLF,RF
143Lance McCullersHOUSP
144Francisco RodriguezDETRP
145Ben ZobristCHC2B,LF,RF
146Eric ThamesMILLF,RF
147Jameson TaillonPITSP
148Eduardo NunezSF3B,SS
149Kole CalhounLAARF
150Joc PedersonLADCF
151Jake OdorizziTBSP
152John LackeyCHCSP
153Hunter PenceSFRF
154Troy TulowitzkiTORSS
155David RobertsonCWSRP
156Manuel MargotSDCF
157Nomar MazaraTEXLF,RF
158Andrew BenintendiBOSLF,CF
159Elvis AndrusTEXSS
160Brad MillerTB1B,2B,SS
161Keon BroxtonMILCF
162Victor MartinezDET1B,DH
163Maikel FrancoPHI3B
164Jonathan SchoopBAL2B
165Yasmany TomasARILF,RF
166Mike MoustakasKC3B
167Yangervis SolarteSD2B,3B
168Alex BregmanHOU3B
169Brandon CrawfordSFSS
170Kevin KiermaierTBCF
171Marcus SemienOAKSS
172Greg HollandCOLRP
173Aaron NolaPHISP
174Randal GrichukSTLLF,CF
175Nick CastellanosDET3B
176Robbie RayARISP
177Drew PomeranzBOSSP
178Michael BrantleyCLELF
179David PeraltaARIRF
180Joe RossWSHSP
181Neil WalkerNYM2B
182A.J. RamosMIARP
183Brian McCannHOUC,DH
184Yasiel PuigLADRF
185Michael PinedaNYYSP
186Joe PanikSF2B
187Matt MooreSFSP
188Dansby SwansonATLSS
189Garrett RichardsLAASP
190Brandon FinneganCINSP
191Neftali FelizMILRP
192Sonny GrayOAKSP
193Jason HeywardCHCCF,RF
194Mark ReynoldsCOL1B
195Ryan ZimmermanWSH1B
196Jarrod DysonSEALF,CF,RF
197Jayson WerthWSHLF
198Ryon HealyOAK3B,DH
199Wilson RamosTBC
200Mitch HanigerSEALF,CF,RF

 

Thank you for reading! Be sure to check out other great articles from our other awesome writers using the links below.

2017 Fantasy Baseball
Rankings | Waiver Wire | Daily Fantasy Baseball | Bullpen Briefs | Rookie Report | Injury Report | Pitching Planner | Hitting Planner | Player Analysis

 

Josh Morgan
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Josh Morgan

Josh is a current student at Las Lomas High School in California. This is only his first year writing for the So-Called Fantasy Experts, but he has been an avid fantasy player for a long time and loves writing. If you have any fantasy related questions, be sure to ask him on Twitter @SCFE_Josh.
Josh Morgan
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