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2018 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Mispriced Pairs; Pitcher Edition

Photo Credit: Rhys A.

Today, we will continue our ADP analysis and look at mispriced pairs of players for the 2018 Fantasy Baseball season. Earlier, our ADP analysis looked at pairs of infielders that were mispriced. This time we take to the hill and analyze which pairs of pitchers are being drafted incorrectly, given their projected output.

As a refresher, a player’s cost is being determined by their NFBC ADP. On the other hand, a player’s output is being determined by their projections from Fantasypros.

In today’s piece, we will not only show you that these pairs of hurlers have a misguided gap in ADP given their 2018 projections, but their recent statistics also show that a material gap is not warranted.

Without further adieu, here are the 2018 Mispriced Pitcher Pairs.

2018 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

The Stro versus The Shark

Gerrit Cole, SP, Houston Astros

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Jeff Samardzija, SP, San Francisco Giants

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2016-2017 IP ERA WHIP K-BB% Hard% LD%
Gerrit Cole 319 4.12 1.32 15.0 30.8 22.4
Jeff Samardzija 411 4.12 1.17 17.1 30.8 21.0

 

2018 projections IP ERA WHIP K ADP
Gerrit Cole 184 3.94 1.29 193 77
Jeff Samardzija 194.5 3.88 1.22 180 131

 

Gerrit Cole’s move to Houston, in a vacuum, appears to be a wash. While the move to the AL should make things tougher, Minute Maid Park has been a more pitcher-friendly environment than PNC Park.

Jeff Samardzija has been a model of consistency and extremely durable since becoming a full-time starter in 2012. Over the recent six-year period Shark has thrown a minimum of 174.2 innings, including five consecutive 200-plus campaigns. He has also recorded a minimum of 163 strikeouts, including three 200 strikeout seasons.

As you can see, over the past two seasons, Shark’s numbers stand up amazingly well when compared to Cole’s. In fact, Shark has the upper hand; however, as Cole distances himself from his previous elbow troubles, the gap could close. The 54-point ADP gap between Cole and Samardzija seems flat out wrong, pay for the numbers and not the name. You will be handsomely rewarded when you pass on Cole and wait to pick up Samardzija.

 

Soft Contact Scuffle

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros

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Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs

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2016-2017 IP ERA WHIP K-BB% Hard% LD%
Dallas Keuchel 313.2 3.79 1.21 13.5 27.5 17.4
Kyle Hendricks 329.2 2.51 1.07 15.9 27.8 20.5

 

2018 projections IP ERA WHIP K ADP
Dallas Keuchel 178.6 3.45 1.19 165 75
Kyle Hendricks 177.6 3.40 1.18 161 112

 

Dallas Keuchel loves to keep the ball on the ground, as his 61.2-percent groundball rate leads the majors over the past two seasons. He also bounced back from a disappointing 2016 season with a solid year last year, which helped prove his Cy Young season in 2015 was not a fluke.

Kyle Hendricks always seems to fly under the radar, but he continues to put up stellar numbers. Part of it has to do with the plethora of big names that have pitched in the Windy City including the likes of Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, and Quintana. He is also boring and not very flashy as his best pitching attributes are his control and ability to induce weak contact.

Among qualified starters since 2016, Hendricks holds the second highest soft hit rate allowed along with the seventh lowest hard-hit rate allowed. Over the same time period, Keuchel holds the fourth highest soft hit rate allowed coupled with the sixth lowest hard-hit rate allowed. Both of these pitchers have non-elite strikeout rates, limit hard contact, and play on solid teams. However, over the past two seasons, Hendricks clearly has the superior numbers. These starters are nearly spitting images of each other, it only makes sense to buy the cheaper version. Let someone else in your league overpay for Keuchel, while you wait in the weeds and select Hendricks later on in your draft.

 

Young Ace versus the Revamped Vet

Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins

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Charlie Morton, SP, Houston Astros

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2017 IP ERA WHIP K-BB% Hard% LD%
Jose Berrios 145.2 3.89 1.23 14.8 27.9 21.0
Charlie Morton 146.2 3.62 1.19 18.3 26.9 19.2

 

2018 projections IP ERA WHIP K ADP
Jose Berrios 173.1 4.19 1.35 163 104
Charlie Morton 159.6 3.41 1.23 164 170

 

Last year, Jose Berrios lived up to the hype and made people forget about his rocky rookie debut with the Twins in 2016. He made improvements across the board including his strikeout rate, walk rate, and batted ball profile.

Charlie Morton’s newfound velocity translated into Fantasy success last year. Morton’s average velocity on his heater has gone from 92.0 MPH to 94.3 MPH to 95.0 MPH over the past three campaigns.

There is no question that Berrios oozes with potential and he is clearly the better dynasty bet, but in terms of redraft value, Morton is the clear choice. The projections and recent statistics both suggest that these two hard throwers are nearly identical; therefore, the near 70-point ADP gap is nothing but an opportunity to draft Morton and disregard Berrios.

 

Closer Confusion

Alex Colome, RP, Tampa Bay Rays

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Brandon Morrow, RP, Chicago Cubs

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2016-2017 IP ERA WHIP K-BB% Hard% LD%
Alex Colome 123.1 2.63 1.12 18.0 31.9 19.9
Brandon Morrow 59.2 1.96 1.04 19.3 30.5 24.5

 

2018 projections IP ERA WHIP K ADP
Alex Colome 59.1 3.05 1.17 58 127
Brandon Morrow 49 2.76 1.08 50 163

 

Alex Colome has been solid as the Tampa Bay closer over the past two seasons, compiling 84 saves. He seems entrenched in his role, with no legit threat within the bullpen. The one risk with Colome is that his name has constantly been mentioned in trade rumors as the Rays have been shipping out veterans of late. There is a chance that he is dealt to a contender and his role would then be up in the air.

Brandon Morrow’s biggest issue over his career has been the injury bug. Last year, he pitched 43.2 innings, which was his highest total since 2013 when he was with the Blue Jays. He showed what he can do when healthy in 2017 and that has landed him the coveted closer role with the Cubs this year.

Morrow’s numbers, absent saves, and innings pitched were materially better last year, and even when you include the 2016 season Morrow holds the upper hand. While both of these closers carry different risks, Morrow’s draft day cost is too cheap to pass up. Forget about the Ray and grab the Cubbie.

 

 

ADP analysis is vital all Fantasy owners as they prepare for their drafts. When you are armed with the knowledge that certain players get mispriced for a variety of reasons, finding value becomes easy. You need to remember that players that are expected to produce similar statistics should have a similar draft day ADP. Thorough ADP analysis is just one way the SCFE team can help you get ready for the 2018 Fantasy Baseball season. Make sure that you check back often so you don’t miss out on any high-quality analysis.

 

 

Fabian Taylor
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Fabian Taylor

Fabian Taylor lives in Vancouver, BC. In his previous life, he traded natural gas for a couple firms in Calgary. He now trades stocks, bonds, and commodities out of a float home office. Family, finance and Fantasy Sports -- Is there anything else?
Fabian Taylor
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