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Week 14 Start-Sit: Take Some (Calculated) Swings For The Fences

Week 14 Start-Sit
Keith Allison

It’s playoff time, baby! Well, it is for a good amount of leagues. Even if the playoffs have not started, you might have a de facto playoff matchup so the Week 14 Start-Sit predictions are more important than ever.

I have become one that advocates swinging for the fences in the majority of playoff matchups in Fantasy Football. ANYTHING can happen in a single weekend, so the last thing you want to do is leave elite production on your bench.

Unless you have such a strong advantage over your opponent that playing it safe will advance you thanks to some sort of pre-matchup points-advantage, I would start your highest ceiling players.

As we head into our Week 14 Start-Sit plays, keep that in mind. Losing is not an option. If you are not the highest scoring team from here on out, odds are you will not win a title. Don’t be scared. Last week I bounced back slightly with a 9-5-1 record and 4 major wins.

As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 14 Start-Sit picks I am 131-79-6 with 86 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and underperforms as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.

So let’s get to the Week 14 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 14 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.

Week 14 Start-Sit

(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 12/7)

Start

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Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (QB12)

The Ravens have had the second-best defense in the league besides Jacksonville. With the loss of Jimmy Smith though, Antonio Brown will have a field day.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (QB21)

I’m going back to the Jimmy G bag. In his first start in San Francisco, he completed over two-thirds of his passes for almost 300 yards. The touchdowns will come in time, especially against the Texans who give up the second-most points to quarterbacks this season.

Peyton Barber, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (RB27)

Barber got the starting job last week and exploded f or 143 yards. Doug Martin should be back this week, but I think Barber has found a niche in the Bucs’ offense. The Lions have given up the fourth most Fantasy Points to running backs this season and I think Barber continues his hot streak.

Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (RB35)

This is a gut call, but I just loved the way Davis looked last week. He’s the most complete back on the roster and I think they start feeding him. Even with the tough matchup, he will deliver.

Marquise Goodwin, WR, San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (WR30)

Jimmy G to the rescue! Goodwin will get deep for one score.

Kenny Stills, WR, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (WR39)

The Patriots’ pass defense has been better of late. Stills has been sneaky good this year though. He has at least three catches in eight straight games. The Dolphin has at least 11.7 PPR points in six of those eight games. He is the epitome of swinging for the fences though, as he has had at least 20 points in three of those games.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (WR40)

Agholor has been very streaky this season, but I think he is on a hot streak that can continue. I think there will be a high-scoring game script here and Agholor has scored in back-to-back games (with a touchdown called back the game before that).

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers (TE21)


Njoku is starting to figure it out as he has increased his targets, yards and Fantasy Points in each of the past three weeks. With four catches in back-to-back games, he is taking advantage of the umbrella coverage to try and contain Josh Gordon on the outside.

Indianapolis Colts D/ST at Buffalo Bills (DST24)

The Colts’ defense is not good. But, I mean, did you see what Nathan Peterman did in his first start?

Sit

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Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Redskins (QB2)

Washington has not been great against the pass and Rivers is on a roll. It seems like Rivers is a safe bet. I think this is a game flow issue, though. The Chargers are firmly in the Playoff Picture while the Redskins are out of it. I can see Melvin Gordon breaking a couple of big runs, the Chargers getting a big lead, and Rivers putting it on cruise control.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (QB6)

Even after how dominant the Jaguars’ defense has been this year, especially against the pass, people are pointing out that they have faced “bad QB’s.” I don’t care who is playing quarterback, Jalen Ramsey is the real deal. If he played in New York or Boston he would be seen as the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. The pass rush will destroy the leaky Seattle offensive line and chase Wilson around all day.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (RB12)

For just the third time since his rookie season and the first time since 2014, Beast Mode had a run longer than 50 yards last week. It was his first 100-yard rushing day in his last 14 games and only his second such outing in his last 20 games. He had not cracked even 77 yards with the Raiders. It was a complete outlier and yes, I am bitter that he cost me money in Draft Kings last week.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (RB19)

McKinnon has been on quite a downswing since Week 5. He has not rushed for more than 50 yards over the past six games while also failing to crack 4.0 YPC with just one rushing touchdown. His receiving numbers have kept him relevant, but not enough to be a mid-level RB2. Without a receiving touchdown, he is a non-starter in most leagues this week.

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (WR14)


I know, he got the score last week and had a great game. Something underlying though was how inaccurate and inconsistent Dak Prescott still was in that game. Now, Dez gets matched up with Janoris Jenkins again which has not been great for him. He is still being over-ranked based on his name.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (WR19)

Doug, this is Jalen. He is really good at football.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (TE5)

Ertz is banged up and might not even play. The Rams have been really good against tight ends, giving up the sixth fewest yards, fifth fewest receptions and seventh fewest Fantasy Points to opposing tight ends.


That’s it for the Week 14 Start-Sit plays! Good luck in the playoffs (unless you are playing against me!) and if you have any other questions shoot them to me on Twitter @Tomlin3 !

Michael Tomlin
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Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.
Michael Tomlin
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