So I do these Daily Fantasy Baseball picks early in the morning instead of the night before. Doing them the night before would get a little more traffic (don’t tell Gonos, he gets all pissy about 75 page views), but unlike most writers, I do my best work in the morning. I also like to have all the latest info when I make my picks.
Here’s an idea of the kind of precision you can expect today. I don’t use an alarm clock because I’m just that damn good. I planned on getting up at 5:00 a.m. to write this; I roll over this morning to get up and the clock says 5 – 0 – 0; on the button! That’s the quality you’ll be getting with today’s FanDuel picks.
I do FanDuel picks on Tuesday and Friday. It wasn’t planned, but this corresponds nicely with two contests that are being offered to us “So-Called Fantasy Expert” types. I’ve yet to miss on the Tuesday Tout Wars Challenge, a 50/50 contest where you get the chance to compete against a bunch of the Touts. But I’ve yet to finish in the money on Friday’s Tout Wars Daily, a tournament involving 40-50 top experts in the industry.
That all changes today. Today I will nail my picks and if you use them and don’t win, you’ll get your money back… Not from me or SCFE of course… Neil Patrick Harris or someone from Heineken will get your money back to you. [Editor’s Note: No one will give you your money back. Please do not contact Heineken. They don’t care about your FanDuel lineups.]
Here are the links you’ll need to compete tonight. I’ve worked hard hard to aggregate these links. The least you “takers” can do is click through to figure out some of this on your own.
Links for MLB Weather:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
Also Check out these helpful tools:
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
My FanDuel strategy always starts with pitching, and today is a day made for tournament play. Tyson Ross may be the closest thing to an ace going today, and he’s on the road in Cincinnati, which means he’s just another average pitcher with iffy control. Carlos Martinez is the most expensive pitcher on the day at $9,100. Just to illustrate the pitching scene for the day, Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, and Edinson Volquez are pitchers four thru six in terms of salary. You feel totally comfortable with any of them? Yea, that’s what I thought.
It’s days like this where there will be a lot of separation in the scoring and choosing a pitcher that has a standout day will likely go a long way toward a money finish. That pitcher is… Jake Odorizzi, who faces the Mariners in Safeco. I’m never confident in the Rays scoring the runs needed for a win, but they’re playing well and Odorizzi has been very consistent this year, pitching six innings or more in each of his 11 starts.
Top Stacking Options for the Day
There are a lot of questionable pitchers taking the mound today. It could be a day filled with offense. Here are the stacking options I’ll be watching.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Ryan Kyle, LHP, DET – Put up a 4.67 ERA in Triple-A and you too can be rewarded with a road start in one of baseball’s better hitters’ parks.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Roberto Hernandez, RHP, HOU – To be fair Faux-Fausto has been decent his season; go ahead and use him in Toronto if you want. [Editor’s Note: Remember, no money back!]
- San Francisco Giants @ Jerome Williams, RHP, PHI – Somehow he’s got a 5.49 ERA and hasn’t really gotten pounded in any one start. Is there something to say for just being consistently pretty bad?
In addition to these games the Marlins and Tom Koehler are in Colorado with Eddie Butler taking the hill for the Rockies. Both pitchers have been decent this season, but Coors Field has returned to form lately, with 112 runs scored over the last eight games. For you mathematically challenged people, that’s an average of 7.0 runs per game for each team.
FanDuel Picks for Friday, June 5, 2015
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
The following rankings take into account skill of pitcher, quality of opposing offense, quality of opposing pitcher, ballpark factors, and of course price at FanDuel.
- Jake Odorizzi ($8,600) @ Seattle Mariners – He’s not been quite as good on the road, but Seattle ranks 24th in the Majors in runs scored at home. On a day like today, there’s something to be said for safety, even in a tournament.
- Edinson Volquez ($8,400) vs. Texas Rangers – At some point we just have to admit that Volquez just might be at least a mediocre pitcher. That’s pretty good for today’s pitching lineup.
- Tim Lincecum ($8,500) @ Philadelphia Phillies – This is all about matchup. The Phillies are last in MLB in runs scored. They are up to 28th in runs scored at home, so they got that going for them.
Top Options at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
Buster Posey ($3,700) vs. Jerome Williams (RHP) – I’m not normally one to spend big at catcher, but this matchup is nice and Posey’s price tag is pretty reasonable. There are also a lot of injry issues with many other top catchers, so Posey looks even better.
Jonathan Lucroy ($2,800) vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP) – Call me predictable, but I’m using Lucroy at this price unless he’s facing an elite right-handed starter. Gibson has been pitching well, but he’s not elite.
Joey Votto ($3,900) vs. Raisel Iglesias (RHP) – Votto is an on-base machine and that works pretty well with FanDuel’s scoring system. He’s cooled off since a scorching start to the season, but is still hitting for power and has even added five stolen bases to the mix.
Jose Abreu ($3,700) vs. Kyle Ryan (LHP) – Abreu is a .331 career hitter vs. LHP. Kyle Ryan has had 4.00-plus ERAs in three of his five minor league seasons. The Cell is a great hitter’s park. I’m taking Abreu at a reduced price and will spend it elsewhere.
Dee Gordon ($3,900) vs. Eddie Butler (RHP) – I know Coors Field aids power hitters, but it also does a nice job boosting averages with plenty of space in the gaps. With similar quality pitchers going this game should be competitive (even if high scoring), so Gordon’s speed is still in play.
Jimmy Paredes ($2,700) vs. Shaun Marcum (RHP) – Of course he’s slowed down since his first couple of weeks, but this is a matchup he should feel comfortable in. I expect the Orioles to scores some runs against Marcum and Paredes could be in the middle of it. This is definitely a tournament pick.
Nolan Arenado ($4,200) vs. Tom Koehler (RHP) – It’s that time of year where Coors Field starts living up to its billing. I like Arenado better against lefties, but Koehler has modest stuff and I expect the Rockies to tee off.
Mike Moustakas ($2,600) vs. Alex Gonzalez (LHP) – Chi-Chi Gonzalez is all nickname and his 5.4 K/9 in Triple-A says plenty. Mouse Tacos has of course fallen back to earth after an other-worldly start, but he’s still hitting .339 against right-handed pitching. His price also allows me to spend money at shortstop with…
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,800) vs. Tom Koehler (RHP) – Damn you FanDuel, Tulo hasn’t done enough to warrant this salary… but I’ll still take it. Shortstop is a quagmire of uselessness and Tulowitzki has upside no other shortstop can sniff. That’s the stuff tournament victories are made of… Well, that and five-RBI days from Jose Lobaton. Note: There is a very high probability of rain in Colorado tonight. Be ready to change things up if the forecast stays doesn’t change.
Marcus Semien ($2,600) vs. Wade Miley (RHP) – Not sure why Semien’s salary is so depressed on FanDuel. He’s hitting for a decent average with the moderate power/speed combination we were hoping for. He’s also on my list of 50 Hitters to Use Against Left-Handed Pitchers.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5,300) vs. Eddie Butler (RHP) – I wonder how far Stanton can hit a ball at a mile high? I think we may find out tonight. Coors Field tends to take a little bend out of breaking balls and that should be to his liking.
Mike Trout ($5,100) vs. Nate Eovaldi (RHP) – Stars and scrubs is an ideal tournament lineup, and there’s not a bigger star than Trout. His price is slightly depressed for showing that he’s not an alien cyborg, but I’ll still use him in a lineup or two today.
Jay Bruce ($3,100) vs. Tyson Ross (RHP) – Bruce is still scuffling, but Tyson Ross on the road is a pretty good matchup for him. Ross usually puts his share of runners on base outside of Petco and Bruce can still clear the bases with one swing.
Hunter Pence ($3,000) vs. Jerome Williams (RHP) – Similar to Jonathan Lucroy, I’m just not gonna pass up Pence at this price. He can contribute in a variety of ways and should be happy toreturn to Philly and rub it in their faces. Pence was out Wednesday with a minor wrist injury, but it looks like all systems are a go for today.
My Lineup for the Day
As usual, here is the lineup I’ll be using tonight. Of course I’ll be visiting RotoWire and BaseballPress.com to make sure all of my recommendations take the field tonight. If one of my picks isn’t in the lineup, I’ll try to select options from my other recommendations. And of course I also reserve the right to tweak things if I hear other news during the day. I will be watching the weather in Colorado. If things change and it clears up, I’ll probably be swapping Tulo in for Stanton and using the savings to bolster second or third base.
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