Before I begin this weeks article I would like to welcome a new guy to So Called Fantasy Experts. His name is Christopher Diaz. He has decided to join the ranks of Fantasy Sports writers and publish his first article. This is a thankless job and one where people are not afraid to inform you when you are wrong. This job also requires a lot of passion for the labor of love called writing. My advice to you is just be yourself on paper, anyone can write down numbers. What makes anything you write special is you. So welcome to the show my man. If you are interested you can read Christopher’s debut article by clicking the link right here: Daily Fantasy Sports: Tips for success
The end is drawing near. The end of what? Baseball of course. We are down to mere weeks before the end of the regular Major League Baseball season. My Dodgers appear to have the N.L. West firmly in hand but you never can count out them pesky Giants.
I have been watching this post season ritual now for thirty-three years. The first World Series I remember watching was the Los Angeles Dodgers versus New York Yankees in 1981. This is back when teams really fought hard to get in. There was no Wild Card and only the Eastern and Western divisions. No Central. And pitch counts? What pitch counts. We also had no wOBA, FIP, BABIP, or anything else that ends in IP except for “innings pitched”. But, we sure had a lot of great memories. No matter how many times you watch Kirk Gibson hit that walk off home run in 1988 or Bill Buckner watch that ground ball roll between his legs you feel something, that twinge of emotion that only a true Baseball fan feels. These emotions are what made me forever a Dodgers fan. Being a child watching the celebration on the field when the Dodgers won made me happy. Very happy. They after all were the winners and I wanted to be a winner as well. We all do. I forever associated the Dodgers with winning, this is perhaps the only time I was band wagon jumper. Since that day I have watched every world series from 1954 to the present day. I used to rent them at the video store when I was kid, remember BETA and VHS tapes? I just love watching teams win. You know who else I like to see win? You, so let’s go…
Daily Fantasy Baseball tip of the day
I find this time of year harder to win 50/50’s and Double-ups and easier to cash single entry tournaments. I base this hypothesis on this assumption, the only ones still playing for the most part are the veterans and professionals like myself. Most of the new players or average players have stopped and are waiting for NFL week one. This creates a dirty little secret in Daily Fantasy Sports, the unfilled GPP tournament or “overlay”. You can find these tournaments all the time. The entry numbers will look a lot like this 139/1500. If the top 100 players all cash in a single entry then how hard is it to win? Can you beat thirty-nine people? The easiest place to find this occurrence is the newer sites like Yahoo, Beckett DFS (Yes, the Baseball card magazine), and the other smaller Daily Fantasy Sports sites like Draft Demons, Fantasy Aces, etc. Give it a try, you can win money or maybe even throw out a first pitch at a Dodgers game.
Today’s FanDuel Strategy
We have a full schedule today with only one afternoon game. So instead of giving you my usual picks for the day and night I am going to give you “cash” first and “GPP” line ups second.
This is a night with horrible starting pitching across the board to pick on and very little to use. The best starting pitchers on the board today are facing each other, Jacob deGrom versus Stephen Strasburg. I am of the opinion the Mets arms are tired so deGrom scares the hell out me going up against them red hot Washington Nationals bats. I also find it less enticing going against the Mets bats with Strausburg. This makes my work a little harder and the decisions a little tougher.
We currently have an incredible eleven of fourteen games with an expected point total of 8.0 or higher. I see no need to list the entire schedule and with this much to feast on tonight we can go anywhere for offense. So here we go.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for Wednesday, September 9th
Colin McHugh (15-7, 3.75 ERA) Houston Astros $9,000 – Mchugh is overlooked. With so much young talented bats and arms on the Houston Astros it is hard to capture the spotlight. Well if you look into it McHugh is pitching much better than his overall stats let on. In his last nine starts he has only allowed more than two runs once and that was versus the Angels on July 28th when he surrendered five of them over five innings. He is doing my favorite thing when looking for pitching, getting better each start. Over the last sixty days he has an ERA of 2.65, over the last thirty days his ERA is 1.59, and over the last fourteen days his ERA is 1.29 with a 1.07 WHIP. He also has 14 strikeouts over his last 14 innings pitched. He gets a great pitchers park in Oakland that is 25th in Major League Baseball in home runs and 20th in runs scored.
Today he faces the Oakland Athletics who have a .306 wOBA versus RHP and a .260 home batting average. They are however a bit stingy in strikeouts doing so only 18.8% of the time versus RHP but with so much of nothing to choose from today I can live with this. I also should add he is facing Aaron Brooks who has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 8 1/3 innings pitched, this should aid in the bonus for the win.
James Shields (10-6, 3.83 ERA) San Diego Padres $8,500 – Big “lame” James Shields. This is how I usually refer to him because I believe he is one of the most overrated pitchers in Major League Baseball. While others consider him perhaps a great cash game play today I cannot bring myself to say it. I do believe he is a great GPP play tonight though. Over the last fourteen days he has 12 strikeouts over 12 innings with a decent ERA of 3.00. Despite Petco park being 8th in Major League Baseball in home runs I believe he still gets a positive park shift in San Diego where his home ERA is 2.78. He has a current K/9 rate of 9.60 which is outstanding facing the Colorado Rockies who strikeout 19.5% of the time versus RHP. Speaking of the Colorado Rockies they have a .289 wOBA and .236 batting average on the road which is near the bottom in the bigs. Big “GPP” James Shields.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Colin McHugh $9,000
- Jacob deGrom $10,900
- Stephen Strasburg $9.900
- James Shields $8,500 (Top GPP)
- Garret Richards $8,400
- Josh Tomlin $8,100 (GPP)
- J.A. Happ $7,300 (GPP)
- Tom Koehler $6,600 (On occasion sneaky good at home)
A.J. Pierzynski (.295 Avg., 7 HR) Atlanta Braves $2,500 – It seems at times Pierzynski will be playing while doing commercials for the senior menu at Denny’s. I mean he keeps playing and playing and…playing. He also keeps hitting. He has a .342 wOBA and .311 batting average versus RHP while barely striking out doing so at a rate of 7.8%. You add in he is batting .300 over the last seven days and has not homered since August 3rd and I am all in today.
J.P. Arencibia (.379 Avg., 3 HR) Tampa Bay Rays $2,800 – So here is the deal. I believe Arencibia is swinging a hot bat at the moment and it should be taken advantage of in GPP play. He is batting .450 with three home runs in the last seven days and has a .447 wOBA versus LHP. The problem is he strikes out 46.2% of the time also versus LHP. This means that he will turn back into Mike Zunino at some point and it could be today. Still gets my call verse the horrible Kyle Lobstein.
Freddie Freeman (.280 Avg., 16 HR) Atlanta Braves $3,700 – The Atlanta Braves tonight in a great hitters park in Philadelphia facing a horrible David Buchanan who has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 5 2/3 innings are my top stack. Freeman also has a .387 wOBA versus RHP and bats third in the line up. My call, Freeman homers.
Brandon Belt (.279 Avg., 17 HR) San Francisco Giants $3,000 – Belt has a .364 wOBA , .284 batting average, and .845 OPS versus RHP. Tonight he is in a great hitters park in Arizona facing the young Zack Godley who has been less than stellar to say the least allowing six earned runs in his last 3 2/3 innings.
Logan Forsythe (.286 Avg., 15 HR) Tampa Bay Rays $3,300 – No punt this week at second base. This match up is way too sweet to not take advantage of. Forsythe has .325 wOBA, .311 batting average, and incredible 1.022 OPS versus LHP. Today he bats clean up against lefty Kyle “The Lobster” Lobstein who has allowed six earned runs over his last 4 1/3 innings and is not missing many RHB. Easy play and great value today.
Joe Panik (.314 Avg., 8 HR) San Francisco Giants $2,400 – This is one of the greatest values today on Fanduel. You have a player with a .372 wOBA, .313 batting average, and batting near the top of the order in a hitters park facing a struggling young pitcher like Zack Godley for a near minimum price. You take advantage.
Evan Longoria (.273 Avg., 19 HR) Tampa Bay Rays $3,300 – Take a picture because it will probably be a long, long time before you see two Rays in my line up again. There is just some great value in this match up today and I cannot help but take advantage. Longo has a .420 wOBA and .345 batting average versus LHP. He is also red hot batting .385 with four home runs over the last seven days.
Todd Frazier (.257 Avg., 30 HR) Cincinnati Reds $2,200 – J.A. Happ has been great lately. Todd Frazier continues to struggle. Can you think of a better time in a tournament to take him? He is only $2,200 for god’s sake. Frazier still has a .384 wOBA and .278 batting average with 13 home runs off of LHP. In a great hitters park for the minimum price this is a no brainer.
Xander Bogaerts (.317 Avg., 5 HR) Boston Red Sox $3,400 – He just continues to get it done day after day and his price remains fair. Bogaerts is batting .300 with a .307 wOBA versus RHP. Over the last seven days he remains hot batting .345 with one home run and 10 RBI. This is one Bogie you have to love.
Eugenio Suarez (.290 Avg., 11 HR) Cincinnati Reds $3,100 – Does anyone expect J.A. Happ to keep up the numbers? He is so overdue for a bad outing it is almost painful to watch the anticipation. Suarez has a .296 batting average and .366 wOBA versus LHP. He also is red hot batting .409 with two doubles and six RBI in the last seven days.
Nick Markakis (.297 Avg., 2 HR) Atlanta Braves $2,900 – This is number three in my Atlanta Braves stack in my cash game line up. Markakis usually bats lead off and has a .349 wOBA versus RHP. He is also batting .273 with three doubles in the last seven days. I expect him to be on base and often today.
Andrew McCutchen (.301 Avg., 21 HR) Pittsburgh Pirates $4,700 – Who know who has been terrible? Keyvius Sampson. He has allowed eight earned runs over his last 6 2/3 innings. Who know is awesome? You got it. Andrew McCutchen. He has a .380 wOBA and .290 batting average with 15 home runs off of RHP. He is in a bit of a slump this week only batting .238 with one home run and three RBI. I hope he slumps like that tonight in a great hitters park. Just be sure to check the weather on this one prior to line up lock.
Mike Trout (.293 Avg., 34 HR) Los Angeles Angels $4,300 – Not a lot to say here, Trout is still the best hitter in Baseball facing Mat Latos who is an absolute trainwreck allowing 16 earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings. With Trouts price down this much it is hard to not take him.
Mookie Betts (.285 Avg., 13 HR) Boston Red Sox $4,000 – The Red Sox sure have hit the cream of the crop with their outfield have they not? Today Mookie should lead off against the terrible Drew Hutchinson who without all the run support would have a record of 3-13 not 13-3. Betts has a .341 wOBA and is batting .278 with 10 home runs versus RHP. He remains hot like the rest of the Red Sox outfield batting .480 over the last seven days. Loving me some Mookie tonight.
Other Outfielders to look at:
- Adam Jones
- Brett Gardner
- Adonis Garcia
- Odubel Herrera
- Gregory Polanco
- Chris Colabello
- Jackie Bradley Jr.
- Lorenzo Cain
- Matt Kemp
- Wil Myers
- A.J. Pollock
- David Peralta
- Kole Calhoun
- George Springer
- Colby Rasmus
- Mark Trumbo
- Nelson Cruz (Top OF play if in line up)
- Atlanta Braves
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Boston Red Sox
- San Francisco Giants
- Washington Nationals
- San Diego Padres
- Miami Marlins
Well guys that is for me for this week. Good luck and I hope we all win tonight. Unless it comes down to me and you. Then I hope I win.
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