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As the month of April draws to a close, our preseason calculations come to a crossroads with our rest of the season expectations in many instances.

In deciphering the data we form a blueprint for constructing a successful rotation.

Unfortunately, forecasting is still an onerous endeavor and sometimes execution gets in the way.

When investing in volatile markets with limited blue chip commodities available, procuring the correct assembly of arms is paramount in obtaining the optimal outcome.

This opening month of baseball can best be described as a call to arms, aces in crisis.

This week our exercise will focus on the recalibration the 2016 starting pitcher market.

Top Thirty Starting Pitchers

PlayerPositionTeamERAFIPK%K-BB%Previous Rank April 1st
Clayton KershawSPLAD2.432.33 28.6%26.4%
1
Jake ArrietaSPCHC 0.872.8524.1%18.5%4
Noah SyndergaardSPNYM 1.690.8236.2%32.4%17
Chris SaleSPCHW1.662.9323.2%19.6%2
Stephen StrasburgSPWAS2.172.1528.7%22.2%11
Max ScherzerSPWAS4.354.5323.1%13.9%3
Madison Bumgarner SPSFG3.643.8529.2%21.5%5
David PriceSPBOS5.762.4435.4%29.2%8
Corey KluberSPCLE4.673.0726.6% 22.0%7
Jose FernandezSPMIA4.372.45 34.0%22.3%10
Jacob deGromSPNYM 1.541.57 19.6%19.6% 9
Matt HarveySPNYM 4.763.6116.9%9.7%6
Gerrit ColeSPPIT 2.782.8020.9%14.3%13
Dallas KeuchelSPHOU4.413.0519.6%10.2%14
Chris ArcherSPTBR 5.474.3631.7%22.8%16
Jon LesterSPCHC 1.98 3.40 23.0%18.0% 20
Johnny CuetoSPSFG 2.652.17 22.6%
19.2%19
Zack Greinke SPARI6.164.2517.5%13.1%15
Carlos MartinezSPSTL1.933.5818.5%11.1%21
Danny SalazarSPCLE2.353.2428.0% 14.0%22
Drew SmylySPTBR 2.512.80 30.8%26.2%N/A
Garrett RichardsSPLAA 2.353.47 23.3%12.4%27
Felix HernandezSPSEA1.804.1522.6%8.518
Cole HamelsSPTEX2.525.1522.3% 11.7%24
Yordano VenturaSP KCR2.353.68 21.4%7.1%30
Masahiro TanakaSPNYY2.923.15 23.7%17.5%N/A
Sonny GraySPOAK 3.814.35 21.5%9.1%23
Jose QuintanaSPCHW 1.471.8126.5%19.849
Kenta MaedaSPLAD 0.362.5224.0%18.8%N/A
Rich HillSPOAK2.422.2633.6%25.5%N/A

Deconstructing The Top Thirty

2.Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs

Jake jumped from the four spot up to number two, Arrieta recorded his second no hitter last week in Cincinnati and that magical run from last season continues on. Yes, his velocity is down, strikeouts are down but until further notice he’s second in line to the throne.

3.Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

Syndergaard has shot up the rankings and deservingly so, Thor is wielding a mighty hammer and Major League Baseball is on notice. The transformation came sooner than later and the best is yet to come.

12.Matt Harvey, New York Mets

Harvey has been inconsistent to start the 2016 campaign, showing glimpses of greatness that have been overshadowed by frustration. Matt has tumbled outside the top ten but I wouldn’t bet against the Dark Knight returning to his former glory.

18.Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks

Obviously not the start Arizona envisioned when they signed Greinke to that lucrative long term deal. Zack is one of the game’s most cerebral pitchers and talented usually wins out, a correction is coming and an awful April will be a distant memory.

22.Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays

“CTM is scooping up shares of Smyly because this injury arm is dripping with potential. The downside is limited when factoring in his current price but the profit could be sizable. Emerging markets or depressed stocks that payoff are powerful portfolio pieces. Rotation construction is immensely important and after securing a solid foundation, investing in Drew is a fantastic upside play.” – 2016 Starting Pitcher Index

28.Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox

Has mister consistent taken his game next level?

Is this Quintana 2.0, can he sustain the spike in strikeouts?

If so a windfall of riches await his owners.

30.Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics

I’ve stated in the past starting Rich Hill is like an adrenaline rush, your scared and exciting at the same time. What does the future hold for him, I honestly don’t know but his numbers dating back to last September are off the charts. Ride the wave!

Obvious omissions were Carlos Carrasco due to injury, Jordan Zimmermann might be the most egregious considering his fantastic start but I’m expecting him to give back some early season gains and finally Michael Wacha just missing the cut.

Here are five intriguing names I’ll be monitoring in May, Steven Matz, Aaron Nola, Drew Pomeranz, Taijuan Walker and Vincent Velasquez, who could be joining next month’s index.

Matthew Modica
Follow Matt!

Matthew Modica

Writer at CTMBaseball.com
Matt Modica enjoyed a decade-long career on Wall St. and then embarked on a second career in film production, while living in Los Angeles and Hawaii. Matt is currently the author of the 2015 Starting Pitching Index at CTMbaseball.com and he's a high stakes Fantasy enthusiast.
Matthew Modica
Follow Matt!

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