Connect with us

In this week’s edition I will provide comprehensive analysis of six compelling arms with regards to their past, present and future.

The beauty of Baseball is it’s measured over a length of time that exposes and rewards it’s contestants.

There is an abundance of games to be played over the next four months.

This diverse arrangement of arms is intriguing and observing how their fortunes will play out rest of the season is a curios proposition.

Here is my appraisal of these interesting, surprising and talented commodities of the starting pitcher market.

 

Six Compelling Arms

John Lackey, SP, Chicago Cubs

Preseason prognosis: I was confident betting against Lackey and thought the 37-year-old would struggle mightily away from Busch Stadium where he enjoyed tremendous prosperity during his time with the Cardinals. The Cubs free agent pitching prize has found immediate success with his new team, especially at the comfy confines of Wrigley Field.

2015 Season Statistics:

• 33 GS
• 218.0 IP
• 2.77 ERA
• 3.57 FIP
• 46.0 GB%
• 19.5 K%
• 13.6 K-BB%
• 70.8 FPK%
• 9.4 SWK%

2016 Statistics: 4/7/2016 – 6/3/2016

• 11 GS
• 75.0 IP
• 2.88 ERA
• 3.19 FIP
• 42.2 GB%
• 26.5 K%
• 19.9 K-BB%
• 70.4 FPK%
• 12.9 SWK%

ROS: Lackey has an impressive strikeout percentage (12th in MLB), an MLB BEST first pitch strike percentage and a stout swinging strike percentage (7th in MLB) among qualified starting pitchers. John has pitched 189, 198 and 218 innings the last three seasons. The Cubs starting rotation of Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hammel and Kendrick all own sub 3.00 ERAs after 53 games.

Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Preseason prognosis: On the cusp, he has the characteristics and capabilities of an ace pitcher. I was aggressive with Martinez prior to the season and while shoulder concerns scared some away, I saw a buying opportunity.

2016 April Statistics: 4/9/2016 – 4/26/2016

• 4 GS
• 28.0 IP
• 1.93 ERA
• 3.59 FIP
• 48.1 GB%
• 18.5 K%
• 11.1 K-BB%
• 63.9 FPK%
• 9.0 SWK%

2016 May Statistics: 5/1/2016 – 5/30/2016

• 7 GS
• 39.0 IP
• 5.08 ERA
• 3.94 FIP
• 59.3 GB%
• 22.2 K%
• 13.2 K-BB%
• 59.3 FPK%
• 8.8 SWK%

ROS: Martinez is only in his second full season as a starting pitcher and the best is yet come. The ground ball percentage is solidifying in elite territory but his strikeouts and swinging strike percentages are currently down. Despite the early season inconsistencies, I remain resolute in this talented Red Bird and betting that the talent wins out.

Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees

Preseason prognosis: Prior to the season, Big Mike profiled as a No. 3 Fantasy starter with substantial upside, but a risky proposition as well due to an injury riddled past.

2016 April Statistics: 4/6/2016 – 4/30/2016

• 5 GS
• 27.0 IP
• 6.33 ERA
• 5.27 FIP
• 3.82 xFIP
• .359 BABIP
• 70.2 LOB%
• 40.5 GB%
• 21.9 HR/FB%
• 24.2 K%
• 17.7 K-BB%
• 61.3 FPK%
• 14.3 SWK%

2016 May & June Statistics: 5/6/2016 – 6/2/2016

• 6 GS
• 32.0 IP
• 6.47 ERA
• 3.37 FIP
• 3.11 xFIP
• .427 BABIP
• 64.8 LOB%
• 14.8 HR/FB%
• 47.0 GB%
• 25.2 K%
• 20.4 K-BB%
• 68.0 FPK%
• 13.9 SWK%

FullSizeRender-1 2

ROS: Pineda or as he’s affectionately called now Pinata, has an interesting stat line two months into the 2016 campaign. Michael is among MLBs worst in ERA, owner of baseball’s highest BABIP, Top 15 lowest LOB% and an insanely high home run to fly ball percentage. He does have an impressive strikeout percentage, is one of only five qualified starters with a swinging strike percentage north of 14-percent and has increased his velocity this season. The big guy has nowhere to go but up!

Drew Pomeranz, SP, San Diego Padres

Preseason prognosis: I owned Pomeranz everywhere in 2015 and nowhere in 2016. It seemed Drew was destined for the Padres pen but he was given another opportunity to win a rotation spot in Spring Training and seized it!

2016 April Statistics: 4/9/2016 – 4/25/2016

• 4 GS
• 22.0 IP
• 2.86 ERA
• 3.12 FIP
• 3.48 xFIP
• .306 BABIP
• 76.3 LOB%
• 45.1 GB%
• 9.5 HR/FB%
• 33.0 K%
• 20.2 K-BB%
• 56.4 FPK%
• 15.5 SWK%

2016 May & June Statistics: 5/1/2016 – 6/3/2016

• 4 GS
• 43.0 IP
• 1.88 ERA
• 2.91 FIP
• 3.59 xFIP
• .178 BABIP
• 82.9 LOB%
• 51.0 GB%
• 5.9 HR/FB%
• 27.4 K%
• 16.1 K-BB%
• 57.7 FPK%
• 9.3 SWK%

ROS: That crazy good curve is being thrown almost as much as his fastball and this new distribution is paying major dividends for Pomeranz. Drew is due for some regression as warranted by his advanced metrics, but I’m buying this version of the former No. 5 overall pick. Of note, Pomeranz has never pitched more than 96.2 innings in the majors and that was back in 2012.

Matt Shoemaker, SP, Los Angeles Angels

Preseason prognosis: Shoemaker was off my radar heading into 2016 and for good reason, anything outside of a late speculative play was a stretch as 2014 seemed liked an outlier season.

2016 April & May Statistics: 4/8/2016 – 5/16/016

• 7 GS
• 29.2 IP
• 8.49 ERA
• 6.02 FIP
• 5.19 xFIP
• .337 BABIP
• 57.5 LOB%
• 33.3 GB%
• 17.1 HR/FB%
• 15.1 K%
• 6.2 K-BB%
• 68.5 FPK%
• 9.6 SWK%

2016 May & June statistics: 5/21/2016 – 6/1/2016

• 3 GS
• 22.0 IP
• 1.59 ERA
• 0.39 FIP
• 1.46 xFIP
• .357 BABIP
• 80.0 LOB%
• 42.9 GB%
• 0.0 HR/FB%
• 35.6 K%
• 35.6 K-BB%
• 73.6 FPK%
• 21.1 SWK%

FullSizeRender

ROS: Shoemaker’s last three starts have been a perfect storm of statistical stardom and desperately needed after an awful start to the season for a depleted Angels rotation. Can Matt keep this magic moving forward? Even with an altered pitch distribution, this sample size if multiplied, would have him in rarified air.

Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City Royals

Preseason prognosis: I thought Yordano had a come to Jesus moment last season when he was demoted but quickly returned. Ventura seemed to finally pitch up to his highly regarded potential down the stretch.

2015 statistics: 8/11/2015 – 10/3/2015

• 11 GS
• 68 IP
• 2.38 ERA
• 2.74 FIP
• 54.0 GB%
• 27.9 K%
• 18.3 K-BB%
• 60.0 FPK%
• 12.2 SWK%

2016 statistics: 4/8/2016 – 6/2/2016

• 11 GS
• 61.2 IP
• 4.82 ERA
• 5.29 FIP
• 43.2 GB%
• 14.7 K%
• 2.2 K-BB%
• 57.0 FPK%
• 6.8 SWK%

ROS: This season, Ventura has been as vexing as any pitcher in baseball and has given back any and all gains from his dominate late season run. An ugly array of statistics is foreboding of an ominous forecast for Yordano.

Matthew Modica
Follow Matt!

Matthew Modica

Writer at CTMBaseball.com
Matt Modica enjoyed a decade-long career on Wall St. and then embarked on a second career in film production, while living in Los Angeles and Hawaii. Matt is currently the author of the 2015 Starting Pitching Index at CTMbaseball.com and he's a high stakes Fantasy enthusiast.
Matthew Modica
Follow Matt!

More in Blog