As with all of our lineup recommendations, these FanDuel Picks are based on the information we have at the time of posting. Make sure you keep an eye on the weather and all of the latest lineup changes.
It’s been a very uneven season thus far, but I think things are evening out. The stars who started out cold are warming up and the Trevor Storys of the world are coming back to reality.
The good news is that we can use this for Daily Fantasy Baseball. Salaries seem to be pretty extreme right now, meaning that there are many bargains to be had. Let’s face it, when a guy like Ryan Raburn is more expensive than a proven power monster like J.D. Martinez, you know there is a huge correction coming.
And that’s what the next month of DFS is all about; catching the bouncebacks and breakouts at the right time and cashing in on it. Let’s hope we get started on that today.
Before we get started though, here are the links you need to prepare for the night’s action and of course following that are my FanDuel Picks for the late slate on Wednesday, April 27, 2016.
Links for MLB Weather:
Probable Pitchers and Lineups:
Batter vs. Pitcher: I’m not much of a believer in Batter vs. Pitcher numbers. You can read why here. Still, a lot of people use this data and I have to admit occasionally taking a pick when I make my DraftKings picks, so here are the two that are most useful in my opinion.
FanDuel Strategy for the Day
A day after six former Cy Young award winners took the hill, there’s a much more varied field. You can pay what it takes to get Jake Arrieta or look for a lesser pitcher with solid strikeout potential.
I don’t have any problem going back to Arrieta after his no-hitter, but I do also like some of the cheaper options. In particular I like Justin Verlander against Oakland and Matt Moore taking on Baltimore. The matchups aren’t perfect as both Oakland and Baltimore sit in the bottom third of baseball in strikeouts. In the case of the Orioles, I don’t buy it. They have a lot of swing and miss hitters and I think Moore will take advantage of that if he has his good stuff.
As I’m writing this, FanDuel has no pitcher listed for Minnesota. They have called up rookie Jose Berrios and he might be worth a look in GPPs if the price is right. I’m not a fan of using pitchers in their first Major League start though. They frequently expend a lot of energy dealing with nerves and typically don’t make it much past the fifth inning.
Pitchers to Stack Against
There’s a lot of uncertainty on the hill today, which gives us plenty of freedom. For 50/50s you have to consider Jose Quintana, who faces the Blue Jays. Quintana is a fine pitcher, but Toronto is not kind to left-handed pitchers.
I also like Cub hitters against Taylor Jungmann and the Rangers against CC Sabathia. Then of course feel free to liberally apply Pirates and Rockies hitters in their matchup at Coors. Jon Gray is starting for Colorado and Jon Niese for the Pirates.
FanDuel Picks for Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Top Starting Pitchers for the Day
A lot of people will steer clear of Arrieta a start after he made history. I don’t think you have to. The Brewers have the fifth most strikeouts in baseball and Jungmann’s K/9 and BB/9 are eerily similar.
I’m going to build a lineup with Arrieta and one with Verlander, who seemed to remember his 2015 second half form in his last start. While Oakland doesn’t strike out a ton, they are in the bottom third of MLB in runs scored.
Top FanDuel Picks at Each Position
Here are two choices at each position; one is the best bet for production and the other is a lower priced option with a favorable outlook.
I’m not a fan of spending big on catching. Once you get past Buster Posey, who’s playing in the day game, it’s just a big pile of mediocrity. So the plan is to use that mediocrity when they have the platoon advantage.
Russell Martin ($2,500) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP) – Martin has struggled this year and also missed the last three games with neck spasms. He’s expected back for Wednesday’s game and hit almost 50 points higher against lefties in 2015. The Blue Jays will score plenty of runs and Martin should have the opportunity to score well. I also like the low price tag.
J.T. Realmuto ($2,400) vs. Scott Kazmir (LHP) – Realmuto has been very quiet thusfar in 2016, but he is hitting .271. He also hit .281 against LHP last year. He’s not the big sleeper everyone wants him to be in season-long leagues, but he works on this day in DFS.
Edwin Encarnacion ($3,800) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP) – More about potential opportunities than platoon advantage. EE has been pretty neutral throughout his career, though he has pounded lefties to a .357 average so far this year. The power has been slow to come this year after an injury-riddle spring, but he’s as likely to pop off a two-homer day as any player in baseball.
Albert Pujols (3$3,300) vs. Chris Young (RHP) – The .175 average isn’t pretty, but it’s obvious there is still plenty of power in his bat. Young is an extreme fly ball pitcher and the Angels bats seemed to be in a groove last night. I like Pujols chances of multiple RBIs.
Robinson Cano ($3,400) vs. Collin McHugh (RHP) – Cano is hitting just .238, but the seven bombs tells me he’s hitting just fine. Take advantage of the relatively low salary while you can. He looks like one of the top few second basemen to me.
Starlin Castro ($3,000) vs. Martin Perez (LHP) – Castrohas slowed down after a scorching start, but he’s always had a slight platoon advantage favoring southpaws and I expect the Yankees to score some runs of Perez.
Josh Donaldson ($4,800) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP) – You just start Donaldson against left-handed pitching. You just do. He’s hitting .353 against LHP this year, and while hiss batting averages aren’t extremely skewed, Donaldson’s power tops out when a southpaw is on the rubber.
Evan Longoria ($3,000) vs. Chris Tillman (RHP) – I don’t put much faith in Batter vs. Pitcher stats, but I’ll make an exception here because the scouting report matches the results. Longoria has hit .333 with seven home runs in 56 plate appearances vs. Chris Tillman. Tillman just doesn’t have the fastball to throw it by Longoria and he doesn’t have the wipeout slider to make him chase.
Troy Tulowitzki ($3,900) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP) – Yep, another lefty masher in Toronto. Tulo hit .350 against lefties in 2015 and is at .316 for his career. He’s not the player he was at Coors, but his splits and a Jays team that wreaks havoc on LHP make him a nice play today.
Brad Miller ($2,200) vs. Chris Tillman (RHP) – Miller has struggled this year, but seems to be coming out of it. If you’re looking to save cap room at shortstop, this matchup is ideal for Miller. He’s also moved up to second in the order which could sneak in an extra at-bat.
Corey Dickerson ($3,200) vs. Chris Tillman (RHP) – Moving out of Coors may take away some batting average, but Dickerson’s power is very real. Tillman is exactly the type of pitcher Dickerson should hit well. There aren’t many days to use multiple Rays hitters. Today might be one.
Gregory Polanco vs. Jonathan Gray (RHP) – Any of the hitters in this game would be a good choice, Polanco may just be the best value. He’s got plenty of speed, developing power and is facing a pitcher with an 8.42 ERA in Coors.
Adam Jones ($2,700) vs. Matt Moore (LHP) – Yes, I like Moore tonight, but Jones is an extreme value at this price point. He swung the bat very well Tuesday night and can still turn around a good fastball.
Carlos Gomez ($2,800) vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (LHP) – Gomez may be a bit of a dart throw at this point, but he’s an affordable dart throw. He may not be the player we thought he was, but he will break out at some point. In GPPs I take that chance.
My FanDuel Lineup for Wednesday April 27, 2016
I just didn’t feel like I could put a decent lineup together with Arrieta’s salary, and I think Verlander still has plenty of strikeout upside. I did lean heavy on the right-handed bats in Toronto, but had to hold myself back on Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. Honestly if you put all the Blue Jay hitters’ names in a hat, you’d probably be happy with your draw.
Hopefully you’ve found something in my FanDuel picks to help you out. It’s been an uneven season thus far, but trends are starting to form and hopefully you’ll get in your DFS rhythm.
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