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When it comes to overrated players, three heads are better than one, right?

That’s why I reached out to my fellow senior writers, John LaPresto and Mike Tomlin.

Because even if a player has the same projected stats by two experts, one might say he is overrated and the other might say he is appropriately rated.

If all three of us think a guy is overrated, there is a good chance he is. Of course, whenever you get a couple of SCFE writers discussing Fantasy, there is never just one opinion about one thing.

Our discussion on overrated players is your gain….

Overrated Players? Not When Three Heads Are Better Than One

The Beginning of the Discussion

Tomlin/LaPresto,

Good morning. Was thinking about a potential article about who might be overrated. If I asked each of you for say three to four guys that you think are overrated, who would you say?

And I don’t necessarily mean poor ADP values. I can think of plenty of those. I mean guys whose buzz is out of control.

For example, last year, the Ameer Abdullah hype train was out of control and I just KNEW he was being overrated. I am trying to come up with players like that. Or after that third Philly preseason game, the hype over the Eagles offense was ridiculous. I saw Sam Bradford go in the Top 50 in one league! But we haven’t had any third preseason games yet.

Any thoughts?

Thanks,

Mark

 

The discussion

John LaPresto Reply

Hey Mark,

I think the Ezekiel Elliot buzz is out of control but I actually think he’ll be pretty good… I heard the other day that no rookie R has ever had a consensus first round ADP prior to Elliot. I don’t know if that’s true but I couldn’t think of anyone so maybe it is…

Meanwhile, here’s a few guys from my overrated list for this season:

Frank Gore

Keenan Allen

Steve Smith

Doug Baldwin

Kelvin Benjamin

DeAngelo Williams

Justin Forsett

Mohamed Sanu

-John

 

Mark Strausberg Reply

You and I have the exact same thoughts on ‘Zeke.

-MDS

 

John LaPresto Reply

I get it… But it’s crazy. I’ve seen him go ahead of guys like A.J. Green, Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Allen Robinson… In PPR leagues.  Seems awfully risky for your first pick IMO.

-JL

 

Mike Tomlin Reply

I agree with you guys on Elliot, but he’s not the first rounder whose hype is most out of whack. I’m sure everyone is tired of hearing me talk about it, but I think David Johnson has too much C.J. Anderson potential. The fact that he is considered a top overall pick is ludicrous  to me.

Jordan Reed is also getting over-hyped and I don’t think he can match the TDs or games played of last year.

Ben Roethlisberger is definitely the most over-hyped quarterback. I could go with Cam Newton as well, but he will probably still finish as a Top 5 option. I think Ben struggles to finish as a QB1.

Receiver wise, I would say the two Colts, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Hilton is such a boom or bust weekly, and I just don’t get why Moncrief is being hyped at all

-Mike

 

John LaPresto Reply

I really like David Johnson but between Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd, Andre Ellington, J.J. Nelson and Chris Johnson, there’s a ton of mouths to feed so I can definitely understand someone saying he’s too hyped.

Totally agree on Cam. He barely threw the ball last season. It was a freak year.

Big Ben’s numbers without Martavis Bryant are definitely not the same so that makes sense too.

I like Moncrief, personally.

I also don’t understand why people suddenly believe in Arian Foster…

-JL

 

Mark Strausberg Reply:

Completely agree about Jordan Reed. While I think Big Ben, for example, is totally overrated, I think the buzz is starting to die down on him but Reed is being discussed as a round or two later alternative to Rob Gronkowski! That’s just crazy. His upside makes him a great value around 70/80th pick overall once you’ve built your “core” starters, but to think he’s worth one of the Top 40 picks is Lindsey Lohan-crazy.

Moncrief is definitely one of the players I like this year. I have him on every team I’ve drafted so far and I’m trying to acquire him in one of the ones I haven’t. So, I’ll explain the love to you Mike….

Last year, even when Andre Johnson was originally gifted the starting WR position, Moncrief had 64 catches, 733 yards, and 6 TDs. I think we can agree that’s probably his basement this year and that makes him a low WR3.

But with Andrew Luck back, I think we can expect even more targets and more catchable balls going Moncrief’s way. So his opportunity should increase.

Also, the Colts defense is still terrible. I expect a lot of passing late in games.

Furthermore, there is all the talk out of camp saying how good he looks, people expect him to lead the team in receptions, blah blah blah.

Do I think he’ll be a WR1? Probably not. Solid WR2? Probably. But his ADP right now is middle of the sixth round! That’s superb value to get a WR2. Even a WR3 is fair market price at that point.

As far as why people believe in Arian Foster? I think it’s because people don’t believe in anyone in Miami. Foster, while proven to be a severe injury risk, when he plays he has proven to be a stud. If I knew I was going to get say 12 games out of Foster, I would take him. I don’t think I’m going to get 12, but depending on his cost, it might be worth it.

I actually have Foster in one of my keeper leagues for a fairly low price and I can’t decide whether to throw him back or not. Remember when AP and Foster each went super late in drafts and then each rewarded their owners with a Top 10 season? I think that’s what people are thinking about. The production risk outweighs the injury risk, at least in people’s mind. Not saying it’s right, but I get it.

BTW, completely disagree about Gore. I think he’s underrated and if he’s my RB3, I’ll gladly take that. I think he can push 1,000 yards…..

-MDS

 

John LaPresto Reply

If Gore gets close to 1,000, then he’ll be the first guy his age to ever do that … I don’t know, man. His YPC at the end the year was pretty bad.  Obviously, Luck being out might have been the reason …

Wel,l on Fantasy Pros ADP, Moncrief is going at the end of the fourth round. He’s going ahead of Larry Fitzgerald and Jordan Matthews, (both No. 1 options on their teams) as well as Danny Woodhead, Duke Johnson and Giovani Bernard, all who turned in Top 20 seasons last year. Give me the known vs. the hype/hope. As far as Gore, I think he will flirt with 1,000 yards. I mean he did last year with no Luck (get it?) and he didn’t have too heavy of a workload to wear him down.

 

Heat Check?

Mark Strausberg Reply|

So, let’s do a heat check….

Reed–all three of us agree he is strongly overrated.

Elliott–all three of us agree the hype is too much and he’s not going to be a Top 3 RB, but he’ll be good enough not to be a bust.

While the “buzz” might be dying down, all three of us think Roethlisberger is overrated too. Similarly, none of us think Cam Newton is the No. 1 guy.

Moncrief/Gore–Mike thinks Moncrief is overrated, John thinks Gore is overrated. I say neither are. If Foster picks up buzz, we all think he’ll be overrated. Anyone else we should discuss?

John mentioned Sanu earlier and I think for a guy who has never caught 60 passes or even 800 yards in four years, he’s overrated too. But I might be too blinded by my Hardy love. What do you think Mike? And are there any other WRs you think are overrated that we haven’t discussed?

-MDS

 

Michael Tomlin Reply

Alshon Jeffrey and Sammy Watkins.  strictly because of the injury possibilities and high costs. I find myself avoiding Kelvin Benjamin as well.

-MT

 

Agreed, John, agreed. But this is probably a good place to stop. I think you, the reader, has enough examples of overrated players, right?

Looking for some tools to avoid your own overrated players? Check out the SCFE draft kit or any of these tools at our friends over at Fantasy Pros….

Draft Simulator:
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Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.
Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.

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