This article will focus on trading highly-valued Fantasy assets to non-savvy owners who can’t see past the gold polish.
I’ll provide a breakdown of why a player is doomed to fail or meeting the ridiculous expectations that are set through optimism, unmet potential, and offseason hype.
I’ll also provide several ways to approach (or counter) others when discussing a trade with said player in hopes of inflating his value, thereby increasing your perspective ROI.
A number of players can fit this bill.
So let’s take a look at the high-valued option to trade.
THAT Fantasy Guy: Sucker Trading
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
Jeffery has everything you look for in a WR. The size, speed, and extreme weekly upside is all there. He has a gunslinger BFF of a QB in Jay Cutler who loves feeding him the ball. So why trade him? And to make this statement worthwhile, let’s all just ignore the obvious fact that he shows up on the injury report more than baby pictures on your Facebook feed.
Adam Gase heading to Miami
This is a big time loss. First, Cutler just lost the man that brought him back from several years of mediocrity and inconsistency. He was a reckless QB who thought he could fit the ball in every hole, on every play, win-lose-or draw. Gase helped him regain a sense of pride at the QB position. But he’s gone. And by reviewing history of John Fox, we see a trend that will most likely try to flip the dynamic of the Chicago Bears as a whole.
When Gase was running the offense, Fox appeared to step back and let him run the show. Now, people may point to the previous non-Gase years in which Jeffery dominated the Fantasy stat lines, which brings me to my second point…
He has spent the entire offseason focusing on the defense. This was a team that improved by nearly 3 ppg in Fox’s first year taking over a defense that was letting up just over 27 ppg in 2014. They added Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency. They traded up to snag Leonard Floyd. This defense will get better and look to be the focal point of the team. They will not be involved in shootouts or chasing teams from behind. I believe that the better the defense, the more John Fox will try to limit Cutler from making typical Cutler moves. Because of this, I see a more balanced rushing attack and safer play calling on offense, preventing the big play opportunities that Jeffery has been known to do.
Losing Matt Forte
He was the engine of the offense for so long. Do you think people are going to fear the RBBC of Jeremy Langford, Jordan Howard, or anyone else? Langford, for example, averaged 3.6 YPC last year and was horrendous at gaining yardage after initial contact. Along with his counterparts, he will need to prove they can pick up the slack to keep defenses honest the way Forte did for many years. Do you think Cutler feels safe with any of those guys picking up a blitz? Happy feet are coming. Also, teams will spend extra attention focusing on shutting down Jeffery. Until the Bears can prove that they can survive a full season of Forte-less offense…they are going to have a difficult time drawing up plays that take longer to develop, minimizing the high upside impact from Jeffery.
Since we are talking about a Fantasy asset, let’s take a closer look at his actual Fantasy performance. In his dominant years in 2013 & 2014, he averaged around 17.5 ppg. Sounds good right? Well, sure it does, that’s a great number. However, in 2014, that would have put him as the 11th highest average at the WR position, finishing below the likes of Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Calvin Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders. And that’s when he was fully healthy. He’s a good to great receiver. He’s not an elite receiver.
Sucker Tips for Boosting Value
- He’s playing on the franchise tag. He has every incentive to dominate this year’s stat sheets in hopes of gaining a long term, insanely valued, contract.
- They lost Matt Forte and traded Martellus Bennett. That is over 140 targets they need to disperse to others on the team.
- Jeremy Langford will do fine filling in for Forte. He is a one-cut and go type of RB that will eat up chunks of yardage and give the Bears plenty of opportunities to dial-up the big play.
- Jay Cutler always locks onto one WR and that WR gets plenty of chances to dominate
- Kevin White will be back this year and is looking great! He should take some of the coverage off of Jeffery to roam free.
- Injuries can happen to anyone at any time. I’d much rather have a WR that has a higher weekly upside than a more consistent, but lower ceiling player.
Depending on your league mates and how your roster is currently shaped, there are several ways to approach trading Alshon Jefferey off of your roster. Remember, Fantasy trade value is about perception. People treat him like the WR that has already reached the upper echelon of WRs, so…you might as well trade him as if he was one.
- Package him and trade for a superstar or upcoming WR. Someone like DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen or Allen Robinson. And if you have the ammo, don’t be afraid to go big game hunting with Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. or Antonio Brown.
- Sell him for a lesser valued WR and a high draft pick in keeper or dynasty leagues. I’d target WRs like Jeremy Maclin, Eric Decker, or Jarvis Landry.
- Go after a RB upgrade/WR downgrade package – If you have the WR depth, I’d look to boost your RB core with someone like Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley or David Johnson. Add in a lesser valued commodity at WR like Michael Crabtree or John Brown.
- Even in his dominant years when he was perceived healthy, he was averaging around 17.5 ppg. Compared to other Top 10 Fantasy WRs, that is typically below where the stud WRs end up.
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