The Perfect Fantasy Draft, Part I

By on November 16, 2016
fantasy draft Photo Credit: Jeffrey Beall

Yes, we have really reached Week 10 of the NFL season. No other sport flies by as fast as football unless injuries have derailed your season or worse, your draft didn’t go as planned. Trust me when I say that there is absolutely a guy out there that drafted, Keenan Allen, Todd Gurley, C.J. Anderson and Cam Newton. I feel for you man, I really do. No one can predict what is going to happen in any given season. That is what makes Fantasy sports all the more fun. Preparing during the off season for the perfect draft of 2016. Hope you aren’t reading this because your draft went similar to this guys…

 

For the Fantasy owners who have been in leagues with their same buddies for years, you know how each member drafts. There’s always that one guy that reaches for a certain player or drafts veterans over rookies.

I find it interesting how you can even tell by someone’s personality how they are going to draft. Every draft has many different personalities and characteristics.

We are going to be going through a 10 team standard scoring, snake draft (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Defense, 1 Kicker and 5 Bench spots). Each member of this 10 team league will be drafting based off of a different personality that every draft tends to have. I will be drafting in the third spot and be making the perfect draft, based off of what we have seen, a little more than half way into the season. Again, the other nine teams will be drafting by these characteristics but also, by how they would have drafted to start the season without knowledge of how this year would play out, unlike myself.

  1. Stay Safe My Friends
  2. What Am I Even Doing Here
  3. Myself
  4. The Oldies
  5. The Jack Reacher’s
  6. Mr. Upside
  7. Autopick… Really?
  8. All Stats, No Game
  9. All Pats, #@&! Goodell
  10. By The Book

 

The Perfect Fantasy Draft – 2016

Round 1

1 Stay Safe My Friends                               Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2 What Am I Even Doing Here                           Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
3 Myself                                                                      Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
4 The Oldies                                                  Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
5 The Jack Reacher’s                                      David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
6 Mr. Upside                                                          Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
7 Autopick… Really?                                  Odell Beckham Jr. WR, New York Giants
8 All Stats, No Game                                     Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
9 All Pats, #@&! Goodell                     Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
10 By The Book                                                      Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

 

Analysis

If you look at ADP and how the top running backs have fared this season, you can make the case that running backs should not go in the first few rounds. Seven, count them, SEVEN of the Top 10 running backs who lead this year in Fantasy points were drafted after the first two rounds.

I loved picking in the Top 3 this year because based on the draft board construction, it was Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones and then a major drop off. I felt those three were the safest picks. Now ODB struggled early and looks to be on his way to a nice second half, so we will see if he was worth a first round pick by years end. I wrote this year that Julio Jones would be the No. 1 Fantasy player in 2016. Needless to say, he is proving why you took him early in the first round.

There is always that one guy who does not know what he is doing and we see it here with Antonio Brown going No. 1. Kidding, of course. What the Manning is going on here. With QB being the most popular position and with the last name Manning on the board, I have to assume they recognized the last name and just went with it.

David Johnson is the No. 2 (non-quarterback) Fantasy player this season, only behind Melvin Gordon who ended up as the 23rd running back off the board and 68.7 overall. After this season is over, we may look back on our draft strategies and say to ourselves, I need at least one of the top running backs on my squad. There are about five or so great running backs this season and after that there is a big drop off. Great pick by “The Jack Reacher’s” and for those of you who took David Johnson.

As we take a look at the other members here, I always like to stay safe in the early rounds. As you can see, Mr. Upside stayed true to his team name and went with Ezekiel Elliott. In every draft, I can only imagine how the guy in your league who likes upside players reacted when Ezekiel Elliott was still on the board.

10 seconds after making the pick, he writes in chat box…

“So who’s playing for second place?!”

It’s starting to look that way given how Elliott has been playing.

 

Round 2

11 By The Book                                                         A.J Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
12 All Pats, #@&! Goodell                                  LeVeon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
13 All Stats, No Game                                          Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
14 Autopick… Really?                                 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
15 Mr. Upside                                                        Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
16 The Jack Reachers’s                                          Lamar Miller, WR, Houston Texans
17 The Oldies                                                     Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets
18 Myself                                                        Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19 What Am I Even Doing Here                    Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
20  Stay Safe My Friends                           Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Analysis

Wow, do I wish I had these first two picks in every draft this year. Mike Evans has the second most Fantasy points among wide receivers and is sixth overall (non-quarterbacks). Now that I have Julio Jones and Mike Evans locked up, I really don’t have to mess around at that position. I can wait for guys like, Melvin Gordon, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, and Jay Ajayi who all went after the fifth round and are putting up Top 10 Fantasy numbers at the running back position. With Vincent Jackson on IR, Jameis Winston has peppered Evans with targets and will continue to do so.

I had to laugh at All Pats, #@&! Goodell, taking the suspended LeVeon Bell. Roger Goodell laid the hammer down on Bell who missed a drug test a few weeks before the season. Take this as a message to the league.

All Stats, No Game has to love his pick of Cam Newton who had the most Fantasy points in 2015 and it wasn’t even close. Russell Wilson and Tom Brady were tied for second with 344 Fantasy points while Newton totaled 391 in standard scoring leagues. Unfortunately, every year in the NFL is different. Going into the season with Todd Gurley and Cam Newton, you would have thought that you’d be set. Needless to say that it has been tough sledding so far this season.

The Oldies with the oldest average age thus far at 31.5 years of age, have Adrian Peterson and Brandon Marshall on their squad. It would be a nice team if it were 2012. Aaron Rodgers, one of the most popular quarterbacks on television (discount double check and Jeopardy). This is the classic, ‘Hey I know him!’ pick from the What Am I Even Doing Here team.

 

Round 3

21 Stay Safe My Friends                                 Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
22 What Am I Even Doing Here                             Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
23 Myself                                                                       LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
24 The Oldies                                                     Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
25 The Jack Reacher’s                                  Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
26 Mr. Upside                                                          Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills
27 Autopick… Really?                                           C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
28 All Stats, No Game                                Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29 All Pats, #@&! Goodell                    Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
30 By The Book                                                       Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers

 

Analysis

LeSean McCoy had to come off the board here in the third round, ranking sixth among running backs and eighth overall (non-quarterbacks). I love me some shady McCoy in this round. It assures me one of those top running backs. Now he has to stay healthy into the Fantasy playoffs to be worthy of this pick, but I felt he was the best guy on the board. You know that he comes with some risk. Of course, he has been dealing with a hamstring injury this season that sidelined him in Week 8 against the Patriots. Other than the Miami Dolphins game the week before where he aggravated his hamstring, he has scored more than eight points in every game this season. After his Week 10 bye, his schedule is very soft the rest of the way and into the Fantasy playoffs.

The Jack Reacher’s went with a classic reach at tight end with Jordan Reed, looking to have an advantage at this rough position. Speaking of reaching, I bet they were proud of the All Pats, #@&! Goodell squad for really reaching for wide receiver Julian Edelman.

The Oldies added to that average age, snagging another 31 year old coming off an ACL injury in Jordy Nelson. This one looks to be a hit though, as he is right behind Mike Evans with seven receiving touchdowns. Mr. Upside proved why I like to stay safe for my first few picks rather than go for upside guys. Mr. Upside went with Sammy Watkins. He has had his fair share of injuries so far in his young career and is out for at least the Fantasy regular season.

Autopick … Really? You had to run into a bump in the road at some point here. He slid right into OBJ and Lamar Miller with his first two picks. Anderson is a tough one who probably won him a few weeks early in the season but struggled and then was put on IR. A round of applause I think is needed for the What Am I Even Doing Here squad for veering off of the quarterback position and taking a wide receiver!

Round 4

31 By The Book                                             Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
32 All Pats, #@&! Goodell                               Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
33 All Stats, No Game                                         Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
34 Autopick… Really?                                              Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
35 Mr. Upside                                                      Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
36 The Jack Reacher’s                             Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
37 The Oldies                                                         Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
38 Myself                                                           DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans
39 What Am I Even Doing Here                        Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
40 Stay Safe My Friends                                     Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

 

Analysis

I got myself four of the Top 8 Fantasy scorers (non-quarterbacks) so far with my first four picks and more importantly, locked up the running back position. I wanted to snag Tom Brady in this round, but just like in every draft, there is that one guy who reaches for him who is a die-hard.

I mean, can we blame All Pats, #@&! Goodell for reaching for Tom Brady in the fourth round? I am a Patriots fan, so of course, no bias here, but I like the pick. It is easy to find a replacement quarterback for the first four games, especially in a 10 team league. He has been nothing short of sensational since he has returned, so it is not a bad pick for the die-hard Pats fan here.

The same goes for, All Stats, No Game going with Doug Baldwin. Can we blame him here?! The dude had 14 touchdowns last year and I bet he thought this was a steal. His first four seasons prior to that massive season, he had a total of 15 touchdowns… There has been some obvious regression in the touchdown department, but hey, those stat fans out there couldn’t get their eyes off of those 14 touchdowns, including this one in this draft.

The Oldies adding a 37 year old Drew Brees to the squad was a given. What Am I Even Doing Here also added another quarterback, in Andrew Luck. Classic.

 

Round 5

41 Stay Safe My Friends                               Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
42 What Am I Even Doing Here                             Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
43 Myself                                                                    T.Y Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
44 The Oldies                                                 Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
45 The Jack Reacher’s                                           Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
46 Mr. Upside                                                 Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
47 Autopick… Really?                                      Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
48 All Stats, No Game                                                      Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets
49 All Pats, #@&! Goodell                       Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers
50 By The Book                                                 Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

 

Analysis

The T.Y. stands for thank you! It’s not like I am Marty Mcfly with my sports almanac. Or am I? He has been a Top 5 wide receiver so far this season and his ADP had him going around the 44th pick. T.Y. Hilton has done pretty much what we expected him to do this season. Well not a Top 5 wide receiver, but a guy that can help you win, but could also lose games for youl. Here are his point totals: 7, 4, 23, 10, 23, 4, 19, 2, 8. I’ll be happy to pair him up with Mike Evans and Julio Jones.

What Am I Even Doing Here snagged a tight end off of the board in Greg Olsen. Coming into the season, Kelvin Benjamin was a sleeper for many until reports came to the surface that Devin Funchess could be the main wide receiver in the Panthers offense, with Benjamin working his way back from injury.

I got a little chuckle with the All Pats, #@&! continuing the run of Patriots players even if they are not with the team anymore.

Coming into this year, I loved Keenan Allen. Before Allen got hurt last season, he had 67 catches for 725 yards and four touchdowns. He also had an incredible 89 targets. In three of his eight games he had 15 or more targets. He was on pace for 134 catches, 1,450 yards, 8 touchdowns and 178 targets. That’s Top 10 wide receiver numbers right there. Unfortunately for those of you who bought shares of Keenan Allen like By The Book squad did, he is out for the season once again.

 

Round 6

51 By The Book                                                 Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers
52 All Pats, #@&! Goodell                           Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
53 All Stats, No Game                                                  Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
54 Autopick… Really?                                        Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks
55 Mr. Upside                                                Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
56 The Jack Reacher’s                                        Jeremy Langford, RB, Chicago Bears
57 The Oldies                                                     Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans
58 Myself                                                         Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
59 What Am I Even Doing Here                   Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders
60 Stay Safe My Friends                                             Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets

 

Analysis

Melvin Gordon is perhaps the Fantasy MVP this season, leading in Fantasy points (non-quarterbacks) with 159. Gordon was the 23rd running back and 68th overall player off of the board based on ADP. His value was astronomical. The dude has spotted you with 10 or more points, other than in Week 6 against the Denver Broncos where he was still able to put up 9 points.

Some of these games he has been a very touchdown dependent guy and questions were raised about if he was a sell high option after a few bad games in week’s three and four, based on yardage totals. In those two games, Gordon went up against the Colts and Saints. Those were great matchups right? He managed 35 and 36 rushing yards in those two games but made up for it with three rushing touchdowns total in those two games.

His last two games though, he has rushed for over 100 yards, so hopefully you didn’t sell him. You also have to love Gordon being used in the passing game. He has 28 catches for a total of 284 receiving yards and two touchdowns. I really don’t see any of this usage in the passing game going away in a Philip Rivers offense. Hang on to him tight.

Autopick guy ran into some trouble as they all do later in the draft with the injured players staying at the top of the board. As a Patriots fan, Larry Fitzgerald has been rumored for years as a new toy for Tom Brady. I can see the pick by the Pats lover taking Fitzy.

One of the more consistent and safe players in the NFL coming into this season was Eric Decker. Even without Peyton Manning, Decker has found a way to put up numbers with whatever quarterback is throwing the ball to him. He had 74 receptions for 962 yards and 5 touchdowns on 115 targets in 2014. He managed 80 catches for 1,027 yards and 12 touchdowns on 132 targets in 2015. He was one of the better value picks as well coming into this year. Sadly, a hip injury has sidelined him for the rest of the season, but you just can never predict injuries.

 

Round 7

61 Stay Safe My Friends                                     Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts
62 What Am I Even Doing Here             Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
63 Myself                                                      Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders
64 The Oldies                                                Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
65 The Jack Reacher’s                                      John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
66 Mr. Upside                                                         Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
67 Autopick… Really?                                       Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins
68 All Stats, No Game                             Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
69 All Pats, #@&! Goodell             Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England Patriots
70 By The Book                                              Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals

 

Analysis

I knew Michael Crabtree was having a solid year, but I did not realize how great he has been this year. He has really revived his career in Oakland and it helps when you have Derek Carr throwing you the ball.

He has had two weeks where he was nowhere to be found, totaling three points in those two combined, but other than those two games, he has had more than nine points in every game this year.

Guess where he is overall among wide receivers? He is seventh with 93 total Fantasy points and that is only two points behind Amari Cooper. I would never have thunk that coming into 2016.

I command the NFL to do an investigation on whether or not Frank Gore is human. The 33 year old running back is somehow having a career year, sitting at 592 rushing yards, four rushing and three receiving touchdowns. Not to mention 130 yards in the air on 24 catches.

I do not see Frank Gore getting two more receiving touchdowns this season, as his career high is three back in 2009. He is 11th overall in Fantasy points (non-quarterbacks) and has been the definition of consistent. He has no fewer than six Fantasy points in a game since Week 1.

The guy has not lost you a week and that is all you can ask for from your RB2. IN 2016, he was once again overlooked, going as the 26th running back and 77th overall pick in drafts.

All I have to say about this round is Stephen Gostkowski … Please.

 

Drafts are long in general, so I will let you guys take a little breather as we are half way through the draft. Part 2 will be out tomorrow.

Josh Carlson

Josh Carlson

Josh recently graduated in 2015 with his Bachelor's in Business Administration, from Husson University. He currently works for Sports Radar covering professional teams in the Texas area. You can also find him blowing money on DraftKings and FanDuel. Always remember the motto: Numbers do tell a story. Find him on facebook as well as twitter @Josh_Carls0n. Yes, that is the number zero in my last name. I love numbers.
Josh Carlson

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