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2017 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

The Top 8 Fantasy Football Mispriced Pairs Of 2017

Fantasy Football mispriced pairs
Photo Credit: Brook Ward 

If you’re 2017 Fantasy Football draft is in the next few weeks, you still have time to find some values.

Today, I’ll be reviewing Fantasy Football mispriced pairs. What we’re doing here is comparing ADPs to consensus projections from FantasyPros for a pair of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Through these comparisons you’ll have a few bargains in mind before draft day. The ADP data is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Fantasy Football Mispriced Pairs

Quarterback ADP Analysis

Derek Carr ADP: 6.10

Year Comp Att Passing Yards Total TDs INTs
2016 357 560 3937 28 6
2017 Proj 361.2 587.2 4,074.8 28.7 11.3

Dak Prescott ADP: 10.06

Year Comp Att Passing Yards Total TDs INTs
2016 311 459 3,667 29 4
2017 Proj 318.7 492.6 3,754.7 27.9 9.5

 

I’ve been back and forth in my support for Carr. But after awhile, I started to wonder if we’ve seen the best he has had to offer.

And when I saw the projections, I started to feel like maybe this is as good as the 26-year old quarterback can perform for Fantasy players. In these projections, Carr doesn’t even make it in the Top 15.

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However, he’s still being drafted in Round 6.

In comparison, Prescott could record very similar numbers and is being drafted four rounds later. I know Carr is projected to throw for 300 more yards, but Prescott is expected to rush for 189 more yards than Carr. That doesn’t even out perfectly in terms of Fantasy points, but it’s still pretty close.

And considering you can wait until almost Round 11 to draft Prescott, the difference is negligible.

 

Running Back ADP Analysis

Spencer Ware ADP: 4.05

Year Rushing Yards Rushing TDs Receptions Rec Yards Rec TDs
2016 921 3 33 447 2
2017 Proj 847.7 6.1 32.9 302.9 1.3

Frank Gore ADP: 7.03

Year Rushing Yards Rushing TDs Receptions Rec Yards Rec TDs
2016 1,025 4 38 277 4
2017 Proj 816.9 4.9 30.7 236.6 1.6

 

Ware is projected to score 153.6 Fantasy points and Gore is projected to score 140.1 Fantasy points. That’s a difference of just 13.5 points, but Gore is being drafted in Round 7 and Ware is being drafted in Round 4.

Each of these players has competition waiting behind them, and I know Gore is a 34-year old back. However, the backups behind Gore should compliment him and give him time to rest. Marlon Mack and Robert Turbin can handle a few carries to move the chains, and Gore can punch it in when the Indianapolis Colts get close to the red zone.

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In comparison, Ware could completely lose his job to Kareem Hunt.

Gore has his risks, but he has similar upside to Ware right now and is being drafted three rounds later. I don’t like spending such an early pick on Ware, but Gore is a nice value in Round 7.

 

Wide Receiver ADP Analysis

Tyreek Hill ADP: 4.03

Year Rec Rec Yards TDs
2016 61 593 6
2017 Proj 69.3 773.5 5.3

Stefon Diggs ADP: 7.02

Year Rec Rec Yards TDs
2016 84 903 3
2017 Proj 82.2 960.7 4.8

 

Hill can have all the athletic talent in the world, but his upside is limited with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback. I just don’t think Fantasy players are taking that into consideration.

Smith has never thrown more than 23 touchdowns in a season, and he’s never thrown for more than 3,502 yards. Known for being a game manager, he’s reportedly trying to throw more deep passes. This is likely an attempt by Smith to stay on the field and keep Patrick Mahomes off, but this could also mean Smith will make more mistakes and turn the ball over more.

Also, Hill will not be returning as many kicks as he did in 2016. Last year, three of his 12 touchdowns were from kick returns or punt returns.

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Instead of spending a fourth-round pick on Hill, you can draft Diggs a few rounds later. He’s projected to catch more passes and record more receiving yards, and his touchdown reception totals are almost the same as Hill’s projections.

However, this estimate may be too conservative. With a year under his belt, Sam Bradford should be more comfortable with the playbooks and potentially more effective.

Diggs was also dealing with a groin injury last season, which may have hindered his productivity. With a quarterback more comfortable with the playbook and Diggs healthy to start the season, I would project he could haul in six or seven touchdowns.

 

Tight End Analysis

Martellus Bennett ADP: 7.06

Year Rec Rec Yards TDs
2016 55 701 7
2017 Proj 60.1 653.6 5.9

Eric Ebron ADP: 12.05

Year Rec Rec Yards TDs
2016 61 711 1
2017 Proj 61.4 669.2 4.1

 

When was the last time you could consistently start a tight end in Green Bay in Fantasy Football?

As far as projections go, I think Bennett’s will turn out to be extremely accurate. He’s only topped five touchdown receptions twice in his career, and he only has three seasons with 700 or more receiving yards.

Ebron hasn’t met expectations yet, but 2017 could be the year he puts it all together.

Anquan Boldin is leaving behind 24 red-zone targets from 2016, and Ebron is one of the biggest receivers on the team for Matthew Stafford to target. Kenny Golladay may absorb some of those targets if he can live up to the hype, but Ebron should still see more work when the Detroit Lions are nearing the red zone.

If you can wait five rounds, you can draft a tight end who at the very least is expected to score almost as many points as Bennett.

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At best, you landed a tight end who could have a much bigger role in 2016 than he did in 2017.

 

2017 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Positional Rankings | Sleepers | Busts | Player Analysis | Strategy | Preseason Analysis | Mock Drafts | Tools

If you are looking for a place to conduct a mock draft or need assistance with drafting in general, check out the Fantasy Pros Draft Wizard. This is a terrific tool that will help you dominate your league, along with So-Called Fantasy Experts, of course.

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Jack Delaney

Jack's love of craft beer and gangster rap is only surpassed by his love of pass-catching running backs. He was a top-40 finisher and $1,500 prize winner for the 2014 RotoBowl, a top-50 finisher in the 2015 Mock Draft Online Championships, finished first in draft accuracy for quarterback rankings in 2015 on Fantasy Pros, and was a contributor to the 2015 and 2016 The Fantasy Football Guide.
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