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Tyreek Hill’s Fantasy Value: Overvalued, Undervalued, Or A Fair Price?

tyreek hill
Photo Credit: Brook Ward 

For the 2017 Fantasy Football season, you will see Tyreek Hill drafted between Rounds 3-5. Some Fantasy players will reach for him in hopes of landing a Top 5 receiver, while it will be a game of chicken of who will add him first if he falls out of Round 4.

For my best-ball drafts and high-stakes leagues, I’m not targeting Hill. Now, to have some exposure to him in Scout’s Online Mock Draft Championship where I can draft up to 3,000 teams, I am adding him.

But in general, I’m avoiding Hill. I’m going to make my case why first, and then I’m going to ask experts around the industry what they think of Hill’s value.

The Case Against Tyreek Hill

Hill can have all the athletic ability in the world, but it doesn’t mean anything if Alex Smith is just a game manager. Smith has never thrown more than 23 touchdown passes in a season. In fact, he only has two seasons in his entire career with 20 or more touchdown passes.

Year Passing Yards TDs INTs
2013 3,313 23 7
2014 3,265 18 6
2015 3,486 20 7
2016 3,502 15 8

 

Last year, though, you could have argued that Smith’s touchdown production didn’t matter for Hill. He hauled in six touchdown passes, recorded three rushing touchdowns, and he added three more touchdowns to his totals on special teams.

However, special teams coordinator Dave Toub said Hill will not return kickoffs this year. And because he will be relied on more as a receiver, Hill’s owners might not get bailed out by a touchdown on special teams if he has a poor performance as a receiver.

I understand his upside, but he has so much more downside as a fourth-round pick. I would much rather draft Demaryius Thomas or Davante Adams because I know the volume will be there for them to be consistent Fantasy starters. Adams finished with the fifth-most targets in the red zone in the entire league last year, and Thomas finished in eighth.

Granted, red-zone targets don’t guarantee success, but more targets allow wide receivers more opportunities to score Fantasy points. I see Thomas and Adams having more upside than Hill, and their downside is limited compared to the 23-year old receiver.

 

However, that’s just my humble opinion. If you search for why you should draft Hill, you’re going to find exactly what you’re looking for. If you search for why you should avoid Hill, you’re going to find exactly what you’re looking for. Instead, I wanted to bring in different perspectives. You can weigh each argument, decide if you agree or disagree with the opinions, and make a more well-informed decision.

The first Fantasy Football analyst I talked with was Kevin English of Draft Sharks.

Kevin English’s Take on Tyreek Hill’s 2017 Fantasy Football Value

Q1: Is Tyreek Hill undervalued, overvalued, or valued fairly (and why)? 

At WR22 in ADP — per recent MFL drafts — I think Hill’s going in the right range.

Detractors will point to his ridiculous scoring pace last year (nine TDs on 85 offensive touches, plus three more on returns). That’s fair given his size, poor college production, and, well … common sense.

But it’s hard for me to overlook the volume here, especially after the release of Jeremy Maclin. He saw 76 targets last year, or 6.3 per game. 

HC Andy Reid has outright said that Hill is in for a bigger role, too.

“Growing Tyreek in the offense will be important,” Reid said back in March.

In June, Reid compared the 5’10, 185-pound Hill to an explosive guy he knows well.

“I had DeSean Jackson and he kind of was the same [as Tyreek],” Reid noted. “When he was young he did all of the return stuff, we moved him all around the offense, he took snaps as a quarterback, we had him everywhere. He made it to the Pro Bowl in two different positions — as a wide receiver and a returner.”

It’s also worth noting that Hill wasn’t even a full-time receiver in college. There’s room for growth, as Reid admitted this offseason.

Ultimately, Hill’s short-range, run-after-catch prowess fits well with Alex Smith. Hill posted an average depth of target (aDOT) of roughly 8.0 yards last year. The result was a strong 73.1% catch rate and just two drops.

His floor is higher in PPR leagues, where I’m fine rostering him as a low-end WR2. 

Q2: Is there another receiver on the Chiefs you’d rather own instead of Hill? 

Nope — it’s Hill or bust for me on an offense that’s historically brought low pass volume and a limited QB. 

 

When I asked A. Don Davenports of TwoQBs.com, he made a good point that the format is important to consider when trying to determine Hill’s value.

A. Don Davenport’s Take on Tyreek Hill’s 2017 Fantasy Football Value

Q1: Is Tyreek Hill undervalued, overvalued, or valued fairly (and why)? 

I think the format matters… There’s a risk with drafting a player with problems like strangling his pregnant girlfriend.  They don’t suddenly become good people, model citizens and donate a large part of their newfound wealth to charity.  Instead, that newfound wealth becomes a new stressor.

I think he’s (appropriately) faded in dynasty and undervalued at #27 expert consensus ranking (ECR) in redraft. Every day we get closer to the new season and he hasn’t been arrested for something new is a good day for having the player on your team in redraft. I would be trying to get out from under him in dynasty (if I had him on any team – which I don’t).

Q2: Is there another receiver on the Chiefs you’d rather own instead of Hill? 

I’d much rather have Chris Conley in a dynasty format. At 6’3 with a 4.35 40- time and catching 67.9% of his targets in his last year at Georgia, I think Conley is a good bet for sustained NFL production once his quarterback situation improves.

Q3: If you’re avoiding Hill, who are other players you’d recommend drafting instead?

This year in my preferred format of dynasty I’m focusing on John Brown of the Cardinals, Josh Doctson of the Redskins, and Sterling Shepard of the Giants in Hill’s neighborhood instead of drafting him. In redraft, I’d be drafting Hill slightly ahead of his ECR if I wanted a WR in that round and range.

 

Finally, I turned to Jon Kelly of the Football Diehards Podcast to get his general thoughts on Hill.

Jon Kelly’s Take on Tyreek Hill’s 2017 Fantasy Football Value

“Tyreek Hill turned many heads last season with his game breaking speed. But his flashy style has inflated his draft price this football season. Hill finished the season strong with four touchdowns over his last seven games but there are multiple reasons to be skeptical on draft day.

 

First, Hill had just five touches or less in eight games last season and that is including designed rushes. He is not a big volume guy based on his size and skill set. This means that you are basically banking on him to continue his unsustainable touchdown trajectory this season.

He excites people because of his ability to break a long play. Just because a guy can dunk doesn’t make him a good basketball player. Don’t get me wrong, there is no denying Hill’s God-given talent, but it all comes down to opportunity cost in Fantasy Football.”

Hill’s current ADP is the middle to back end of the fourth round. This is when guys like DaVante Adams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Crabtree are all coming off the board and most of the time it is after Hill. All three of those players finished as WR1s last season. While last season isn’t always indicative of future production, it is a solid baseline to use. All three of those players have better quarterbacks, offenses, and roles than Hill. Let other players reach on flashy gadget players like Hill while you target consistency and better situations. You won’t be disappointed.”

While last season isn’t always indicative of future production, it is a solid baseline to use. All three of those players have better quarterbacks, offenses, and roles than Hill. Let other players reach on flashy gadget players like Hill while you target consistency and better situations. You won’t be disappointed.”

 

Conclusion on Tyreek Hill’s 2017 Fantasy Football Value

Well, there you have it. The experts make a lot of good points. Now you have a lot of different views to take into consideration before drafting Hill. But ultimately, it comes down to your expectations and your risk tolerance for whether you should add him to your roster on draft day.

Before heading out, I wanted to share with SCFE readers that I just released a new ebook on strategies and players to draft in best-ball leagues like MFL10s.

You can get your copy of the “2017 Fantasy Football: Best-Ball Draft Advice to Help You Dominate Your League,” right here.

Also, make sure to check out this video on another receiver Fantasy players are torn about.

 

Follow Jack

Jack Delaney

Jack's love of craft beer and gangster rap is only surpassed by his love of pass-catching running backs. He was a top-40 finisher and $1,500 prize winner for the 2014 RotoBowl, a top-50 finisher in the 2015 Mock Draft Online Championships, finished first in draft accuracy for quarterback rankings in 2015 on Fantasy Pros, and was a contributor to the 2015 and 2016 The Fantasy Football Guide.
Follow Jack

Jack's love of craft beer and gangster rap is only surpassed by his love of pass-catching running backs. He was a top-40 finisher and $1,500 prize winner for the 2014 RotoBowl, a top-50 finisher in the 2015 Mock Draft Online Championships, finished first in draft accuracy for quarterback rankings in 2015 on Fantasy Pros, and was a contributor to the 2015 and 2016 The Fantasy Football Guide.

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