It is hard to believe that Week 1 of the NFL and Fantasy season is so close, so it is time to focus on Daily Fantasy Football and our Daily Fantasy Picks! That being said, it is time to start looking forward to switching our Fantasy Baseball mentality for Daily Fantasy Football.
I am hoping to help fill your rosters by naming a few high ceiling players each and every week. If you could simply buy every single player you wanted on Daily Fantasy Football, it wouldn’t be as challenging would it?
The key to a successful lineup in any DFS game is to have consistency, frequent touches, and of course a few unexpected players having big weeks. We won’t hit every week, but if you find that value player who blows up any particular week your chances of cashing are very high.
Week 1 may actually be the most opportune week of the entire season since prices were released very early to help build anticipation. This means injuries, position battles, and trades were not taken into account. That is a good thing!
The next key is defining what a value play is. To me a value play is a player who is likely to come close to matching their price point, and costing under $7,300 on FanDuel. So if a player costs $7,100, I would hope the player matches or exceeds 7.1 points.
Elite options should double, or nearly double their price point if you were wondering what I expect from them. So for example, Eddie Lacy costs $8,500 this week on FanDuel. If he ends up with 16 points, that meets the definition of value.
Some links for you to check out to further help your Daily Fantasy Football lineups:
Doug Anderson created an awesome table that he’s going to post each week that breaks down the “ Fantasy Points Allowed by Position.” The best part is – it breaks it down according to the individual scoring rules on several DFS sites, including FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces, Drafster and FanThrowdown.
Last month, David Gonos wrote a piece on FanDuel Insider discussing the average benchmarks you have to hit to win different contests on FanDuel, but I expect those numbers to rise (at least) by 10 percent for this Week 1 set of games.
Now that my guidelines are out of the way, let’s get in to the juicy stuff shall we?
Week 1 Daily Fantasy Football
3 Value Running Backs
Lamar Miller, Miami at Washington ($7,300)
Miller wasn’t given much of an opportunity to truly dominate the carries in Miami until it was too late. When all was said and done, his numbers were gaudy and without much in the way to threaten his touches, he will certainly produce. Toss in facing the Redskins defense in Week 1 and Miller makes a Top 10 play at minimal value for an RB1 on Fan Duel.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina at Jacksonville ($7,100)
Stewart, like Miller, when healthy and given the opportunity can produce at high levels in Fantasy. He is facing an improved but not intimidating run defense in Jacksonville in Week 1 and that price will make an excellent value pick at running back.
Chris Ivory, New York Jets vs Cleveland ($6,400)
This will likely be the last time Ivory is at a price point this low. He will be the horse in this offense, and facing a rush defense that is middle of the pack makes him well worth the risk, and most importantly worth the value. Other positions can be bolstered and Ivory should meet his value.
3 Running Backs to Avoid on FanDuel
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo vs Indianapolis ($8,400)
Pricing was done very early for Week 1 and because of this McCoy’s name brought a steep price tag. Do not take the plunge this week even if he is listed as a starter. He is considered a risk now, and the team has had no qualms in saying the rookie back-up will play as needed. Avoid!
— SundayNight Football (@SNFonNBC) September 2, 2015
DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh at New England ($7,600)
Williams has looked sharp this training camp, but he is not Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers are going to do what it takes to win. Their strength is passing the ball and with their top running back out of the picture, Williams will likely be used sparingly. He could produce, but I simply don’t trust it. It is also a Thursday night game which I typically try to avoid. Go with a cheaper option this week.
Alfred Morris, Washington vs Miami ($7,400)
Morris is still the main man in Washington but with Kirk Cousins as the starter, and a sharp looking rookie in Matt Jones waiting in the wings, Morris may not have a very long leash, or value. His price is reasonable, and he could meet value but I would trust the three names above far more this week.
Best of luck this week in your Daily Fantasy Football game and hopefully these recommendations help you take the win.
- Daily Fantasy Baseball: Picks for Saturday, May 14th - May 14, 2016
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- Daily Fantasy Baseball: Picks for Saturday, May 7th - May 7, 2016