My Weekly Value-Based Drafting system had a strong showing last week with my top suggested lineup scoring 169.36 points on Fan Duel.
Even the other guys not included in that lineup but suggested showed well with Jeremy Langford (23.7 points), Cam Newton (34.6) and Julio Jones (18.7) particularly having good weeks.
There really was not a dud between the group with every player getting at least double-digit points.
There are not as many easy-to-see value plays this week with no massive running back injuries that led us to DeAngelo Williams and Langford.
The only possibility would be the new Patriots’ pass-catching back to take Dion Lewis’ place. However, no one is really sure whether it will be James White, Brandon Bolden or Travaris Cadet. My money is on White, and he is not even listed on Fan Duel.
As usual these prices and projections are for the Fan Duel style of play, but I have thrown in a few Draft Kings nuggets as well. The Value Factor (VF) is a quantity of the player’s projected points against the cost to put him on your roster.
Value Based Drafting Targets
Value of the Week: Aaron Rodgers, VF: 3.68
With no great value plays at running back or wide receiver, the best value is the best player overall. Detroit is giving up over 37 points a game over their last four and it is not like they were playing elite quarterbacks. Rodgers knows that he cannot have his team lose a third straight especially with Minnesota sitting atop the division with them.
I have Rodgers projected to be the top scoring player overall by a wide margin. He also is the safest play for guaranteed points.
Cam Newton, VF : 3.95
Landry Jones, VF : 4.04
Once again, Cam Newton is being under-valued by his price tag as I have him as the second highest projection this week. Landry Jones is a good cheap option as I see the Browns forcing him to beat them. He will see a lot of stacked boxes to stop DeAngelo Williams (or his backups if he is unable to go) meaning one-on-one coverage for Martavis Bryant and Antonio Brown.
Blake Bortles is a solid value on Draft Kings at just $5600 along with Derek Carr at just $5800.
Mark Ingram, VF: 4.58
Justin Forsett, VF: 4.58
Darren McFadden, VF: 4.65
Giovani Bernard, VF: 4.76
I have Ingram projected to score the second-most points of all running backs this week, but he will only cost you the 7th most money. With Khiry Robinson out and C.J. Spiller disappearing, Ingram is the go-to workhorse for the high-scoring offense.
Forsett and McFadden get a couple of bad defenses that should yield scoring opportunities.
Bernard is a good inexpensive play at just $6300. The Bengals get a Texans’ team that has really struggled with pass-catching running backs. Lamar Miller and Devonta Freeman combined to score 72.5 points including eight catches for 142 yards receiving. I think Bernard has a massive day.
McFadden is especially valuable on Draft Kings, costing you just $4900 to roster him. Antonio Andrews is another cheap play at just $3700.
Demaryius Thomas, VF: 4.93
Michael Crabtree, VF: 4.99
Alshon Jeffery, VF: 5.09
Julian Edelman, VF: 5.09
I have Thomas projected as the highest-scoring receiver this week and he will cost you the 8th most money. Peyton Manning will be breaking the all-time yardage record pretty early on in the game, and usually when there’s a record to be broken he looks DT’s way.
Michael Crabtree is still being priced significantly lower than Amari Cooper, yet he is getting more targets and points over the past few games. He seems to have developed chemistry with Derek Carr who trusts him with difficultly-placed passes.
Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman are about as consistent as you can get at receiver right now with the other elite options having big question marks at quarterback (except for Odell Beckham, but I am sure Belichick will devise a way to shut him down).
Brandon LaFell is the only receiver with a better price on Draft Kings, as he only has a $4100 price tag. He has seen his targets increase the past couple of weeks and I think the trend continues.
Jordan Reed, VF: 5.32
Tyler Eifert, VF: 5.35
Notice I did not include A.J. Green as the elite option because his red zone targets now are all sucked up by Eifert. Eifert has also turned into a model of consistency with at least four catches in every game he finished except one. I have him projected as the second-highest scoring tight end, only slightly behind Rob Gronkowski
Jordan Reed has become a target monster. He is average nine targets and over six catches a game. His last couple he has found the end zone three times as well, and I see him scoring again this week. At just $5800 he is a solid and inexpensive option.
Richard Rodgers gives solid value on Draft Kings with a minimum cost at $3000. He seems to be Aaron Rodgers’ most trusted red zone target now.
My All-Value Team
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Giovani Bernard
RB: Justin Forsett
WR: Michael Crabtree
WR: Alshon Jeffery
WR: Demaryius Thomas
TE: Jordan Reed
DST: Cincinnati Bengals
K: Dan Bailey
I love the pass-catching probability between my two backs along with the scoring chances of the wide receivers. As I said, I think Rodgers has his best game of the season.
The Bengals’ defense has been a strong unit and they get an offensively challenged Houston Texans team. If you have watched any of the Cowboys with Matt Cassel under center, you know they struggle to convert chances into touchdowns so Dan Bailey will get his opportunities.
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