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Week 10 DFS Picks: The Top 1%

Week 10 DFS Picks
Photo Credit: Jose Herculano

I am shooting for the top 1% this week.

Modestly, I’ve been hot lately. I know my picks are winning me money, as well as at least a few of you readers. But I’m jonesing for a bigger payday without increasing my investment. Therefore this week I’m shooting for the top 1%. Don’t get me wrong, finishing in top 15% of GPPs often is nice, but I want the major cabbage you get when you finish in the top 1%.

That’s right, I’m giving you the dream shot. Put cinematically, you two characters are going to Top Gun.

We’ve been good, but we can make it better.  We will, of course, provide a cash game option. But most of the plays below in a cash game are absolutely in the Danger Zone. Even for a GPP, they are as reckless as Maverick. But great balls of fire, I’m going for the top 1%. We have a hop to get to….

Week 10 DFS Picks: The Top 1%

Obvious Cash Game Pick

Of course first, we have to mention the obligatory cash game pick.

LeVeon Bell

Is there any reason not to choose Bell as a DFS player this week? Yeah, the fact that his ownership is likely to be sky high. So it’s less than ideal for GPP, but not for cash games. Bell has yet to have less than double-digit PPR fantasy points. He will be taking on Indy, who is giving up the fourth most RB fantasy points.

Bell is the pick.

That should be little surprise. But you may not be prepared for my next pick.

 

GPP Play of the Week

Blake Bortles

You were not expecting that, were you?

I know, I know. Even my inner self momentarily channeled Merlin…

But that’s right, Blake Bortles will be the man piloting my aircraft this week.

No, I haven’t had my tower buzzed one too many times. The Chargers are allowing opposing quarterbacks the sixth highest completion rate. Of course, Jacksonville is going to run a lot but the Chargers have given up only five rushing touchdowns. And Jacksonville is coming off a win where Bortles threw the ball 38 times. Yes, Bortles is the Mach 2 with your hair on fire move. But I honestly don’t think he crashes and burns.

 

Week 10 GPP Lineup of the Week

I’m definitely going full throttle this week. If you fly with the team below, you will have a ton of money left over, as much as $1300 in Draft Kings. You will have far less left over in Fan Duel, but I think the pricing is tighter this week in Fan Duel. Hopefully, I don’t have to remind you that we are going for the top 1%.

QB Blake Bortles, Jaguars (DK $4800 FD $7300)

See Above.

RB Marlon Mack, Colts (DK $3800 FD $5500)

This Mack pick might be even bolder than Bortlers. Mack is still behind Gore on the depth chart. Pittsburgh is the NFL’s fifth overall defense. It’s likely that Pittsburgh goes up big and the Colts will be forced to abandon the run game. I’ll admit, this is a pretty arrogant pick. But even one of the coolest instructors ever will tell you that can be a good thing:

RB Leveon Bell, Steelers (DK $9800 FD $9400)

If this game goes the way many expect to, it’s going to be a huge Leveon Bell day. And I know what I said about ownership. I got plenty of low ownership percentages elsewhere. But you don’t finish at the top without getting a ton of points.

Of course, he’s not the only Steelers player I’m taking.

WR Antonio Brown, Steelers ($9500 DK $9300 FD)

I’m also taking Brown. Many like the Pittsburgh offense this week but as the most expensive receiver on the board, I think his ownership will be low this week. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Juju has higher ownership than Antonio. However, given all the risk I am taking this week, I’m grabbing the security of Brown. And here’s the other thing: I think this game is actually closer than people expect as Jacoby Brissett embarrasses the Pittsburgh secondary. Why? Tell me what quality quarterback the Steelers defense has shut down this year?

Let’s just say that the list is neither long nor distinguished. Thus, I think game flow will dictate that Brown becomes necessary and therefore he becomes a valuable play.

WR Marqise Lee, Jaguars (DK $4100 FD $6000)
Embed from Getty Images

I’ve been on him all year. If I’m going Bortles, I’m pairing him and Lee.

WR Davante Adams, Packers (DK $5000)

That Chicago secondary is pretty good. But this is ridiculous value at this DraftKings price. Adams need to score of course. Yet, if he can do that and only manage to catch three passes for 47 yards like he did the last time he was priced even remotely this low back in week 1? You will make a profit on him.

WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings (FD $7000)

If you like Adam Thielen more, go Thielan. Both Diggs and Thielan are much better values on Fan Duel this week than they are on Draft Kings. However, we are going for the top 1% so give me the bigger boom/bust option which is Diggs. Be aware that Washington is giving up the sixth least amount of fantasy points to wide receivers. It is one reason why I think Diggs might be lightly owned. However, since the Redskins bye four weeks ago they are far lower than that and rank in the bottom half.

FLEX Doug Martin, Buccaneers (DK $4700)

Do you really think they are going to let Fitzpatrick lead a pass-heavy offense? Negative ghost rider, the pattern is full.

TE Eric Ebron, Lions (DK $3100 FD $5300)

Like Stinger, I can’t believe what I’m about to do here with Ebron. I’ve got my speech for him all set:

However, if by Sunday morning I know he will play, I am likely to pivot to Charles Clay. If there’s any selection on here you should hit eject, this is it. But before you’ve lost that lovin’ feeling, know that Cleveland has given up the second most TE fantasy points.

K Kai Forbath, Vikings (FD $4800)

I don’t think the “revenge factor” is really high here, but Forbath will show the Redskins they made a mistake.

DST Jaguars (DK $3900 FD $5200)

The Philip Rivers stinker game is coming. I know San Diego is coming off a bye, but cross country against the #1 rated pass defense? I’m willing to bank this week is a Rivers stinker game. And the irony that I am betting against San Diego, where Miramar (aka Top Gun) is based, is not lost on me. But in some karmic way, that confirms that this is the right pick since I’m going for the top 1%.

 

 

 

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Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.
Mark Strausberg

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