Once we reach this point in the NFL season, trends become more and more important. With the Week 10 Start-Sit predictions I am focusing on players that are trending either up or down.
As we exit the Bye Week Doldrums, we can start to see which direction offenses are taking. At the beginning of the year everyone has a plan and most of the time that plan needs to be changed. Whether it is target-share or an RBBC, coaches have to figure out where they are getting the most bang for their buck.
By this point in the season, we can really see who is taking control of certain roles. Alvin Kamara in New Orleans has taken such a hold of a spot that they traded away Adrian Peterson. JuJu Smith-Schuster has relegated Martavis Bryant to Twitter-pouting. Teams are figuring out how to overcome injuries to their key producers like Dalvin Cook, Ryan Tannehill, and Tyler Eifert.
With all that in mind, we can see which players are on a positive or negative trend within their offense. Speaking of trends, my picks took a bit of a downward spike with an 8-5 showing last week with just four major wins. I had a couple of setbacks in that Jamison Crowder did not play and Ezekiel Elliott did play. That’s the problem with writing this three days before the games, but there’s really no other way to do it with Thursday night games.
As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 10 Start-Sit picks I am 92-54-4 with 58 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and underperforms as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.
So let’s get to the Week 10 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 10 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.
Week 10 Start-Sit
(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 11/9)
Josh McCown: 9 TDs on passes 15+ yards downfield this season, passing Alex Smith for most in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/6a9yGk4EVh
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 3, 2017
Josh McCown, QB, New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (QB12)
Here we are with the Week 10 Start-Sit and McCown is the QB10 in Fantasy Football. He has just .7 points less than Drew Brees in standard scoring. He has averaged 20 points per game over the last month. He has the third most points among quarterbacks in that time frame. Tampa is giving up the 7th most points to opposing quarterbacks, and their team looks completely discombobulated.
Brock Osweiler, QB, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (QB25)
It sickens me to write it, but Osweiler is not a bad streaming option for the QB-needy this week. The Patriots have given up at least 17 points in all but one game this season to the opposing quarterback (and the one game they did not was deflated by a 70-yard Melvin Gordon run). I would much rather roll with Osweiler than Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles or C.J. Beathard, all being ranked significantly ahead of him.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (RB27)
Look at the sealing blocks from James (70), Fasano and Pouncey (51) on the Dolphins’ longest run of the season, produced by Kenyan Drake. pic.twitter.com/aUUEeQVAWR
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) November 6, 2017
While Damien Williams outscored Drake last week, I think Drake is the back to start going forward. With basically the same touch-share out of the backfield (15 to 13 for Drake), Drake accounted for 104 yards to Williams’ 61. Williams just had the fluky touchdown to boost his overall stat line. While the Panthers may be stingy against running backs, they still have given up the 8th most receptions out of the backfield. Jay Cutler will continue to dump it off to Drake who will be a solid PPR option.
Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (RB28)
I know, two different Jets as “Starts” in the Week 10 Start-Sit. It’s like the Twilight Zone. I also know that Forte looked like the back to own with two touchdowns last week. But, those are his only scores on the year so far. Since Week 3 in games Powell has started and finished, he is averaging almost 14 PPR points per game. He is the rusher of the two and only two teams have given up more rushing touchdowns than the Buccaneers.
Latavius Murray, RB, Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (RB41)
Since Dalvin Cook went down, Murray is averaging 16 carries per game with no less than 12 in each outing. While he has not done the most with the carries, he has also faced some stiff run defense in that time frame. Either way, I love a back that is guaranteed 15+ touches.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (WR27)
JuJu is not a one-hit wonder ladies and gentlemen, he is here to stay. Even before the monster game from a couple of weeks ago the rookie had at least 9.8 PPR points in four of the previous six games. That was all as the third receiver, too. As the second option in the potentially explosive Steelers’ offense, JuJu is a beast. Now, he gets the Colts who are giving up the MOST yards per game to receivers in the league. He is a WR1 to me this week.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams vs. Houston Texans (WR35)
— Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF) November 7, 2017
Kupp leads the Rams in both red-zone targets as well as short-pass targets. He has multiple receptions in every game this season. Jared Goff has become adept at spreading the wealth, and after Robert Woods’ big game last week, he will look more towards Kupp. The Texans have given up the sixth-most touchdowns to opposing receivers.
Adam Humphries, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets (WR42)
With Mike Evans suspended someone will have to take over his target-share. DeSean Jackson can only handle so much with his limited route tree. Also, with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting for the injured Jameis Winston, expect him to look more towards his familiar target, Humphries, who has worked more with Fitz on the second team.
Tyler Kroft, TE, Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (TE13)
Something that does get talked about enough: how shallow the tight end pool is this year. Only five guys are averaging ten points per game. Since taking over for the injured Tyler Eifert, Kroft is averaging almost 13 PPR points per game. He has at least 9.6 in each week since the bye week. He is about as safe an option you can get at the position and should be a starter every week.
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints (TE15)
Charles Clay is back at practice. 💯 #GoBills
— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) November 8, 2017
If Clay plays, you start him. He has not played for half of the season… and is still TE20. That is how bad the TE crop is this year. Before he got hurt, Clay averaged over 13 Fantasy Points per game. If he is available, play him.
Buffalo Bills D/ST vs. New Orleans Saints (DST15)
A sneaky thing that no one is talking about as well: Drew Brees’ decline. Brees has just two 300-yard games and only one game with more than two touchdowns. Over the past four weeks, he has four interceptions to just five touchdowns. The Bills are giving up the sixth-fewest Fantasy points in the league to opposing quarterbacks.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (QB1)
Dak on the road is just not as good as Dak at home. In his last seven road starts, Prescott is averaging just 162 yards through the air with nine passing touchdowns total. His rushing has boosted his stats some (129 yards and two touchdowns in those games) but his average Fantasy output is just 14.1 points per game. This is all inflated by the San Francisco blowout from a few weeks ago, too. If you just take the games against quality competition, he is barely cracking double-digit scoring. He will not be the QB1 this week, not even a Top-8 option and that is my best bet of the Week 10 Start-Sit.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns (QB2)
Stafford has had a couple of nice games in a row, but lest we forget that he has only cracked 20 points once since Week 1. The Browns, on the other hand, have given up less than 16 Fantasy Points per game to quarterbacks since Week 4. This ranking is too high and based off of a nice outing by Stafford last week.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (RB9)
Ingram has seen his Fantasy production decrease over each of the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara is getting more and more of the touches out of the backfield and exploding with them. Buffalo also has given up the 11th fewest rushing yards in the league but is susceptible to the passing game to the running backs. This feels like a Kamara-game again, and Ingram will have to take a backseat.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (RB17)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 6, 2017
If you recall, the last time Peterson had a huge game I was adamant that he would fall off the week after. What happened? A 21.3-point decrease in Fantasy Production. After the bye week, Peterson came out firing with 167 total yards. But he also had THIRTY-NINE touches. That is the most in a game in his entire career. Do you know what happened the last time he had a career-high in touches? He had just 13 rushing yards the week after. He was also four years younger then.
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (WR8)
As I have already said, I don’t think Dak has a huge game. I also do not think Dez will be 100% if he even plays. The Falcons have also given up the sixth-fewest yards to opposing wide receivers.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (WR13)
With Drew Stanton behind center, Fitzgerald’s old-man re-breakout season has taken a steep nosedive. He has just eight catches for 99 yards and no touchdowns over the past two games. Now with a tough match-up against a hungry/angry Seattle defense, I do not see Fitz doing much.
Devante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (WR16)
This is just too high for Parker. There are too many mouths to feed in the passing game in Miami and Jay Cutler cannot handle feeding that many Fantasy options anymore.
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets (TE6)
Brate has seen his scoring decrease in each of the past four weeks. Jameis had a fondness for the tight end, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center, there is not that same connection.
That’s it for the Week 10 Start-Sit plays! If you have any other questions, send them to me on Twitter @Tomlin3 !
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