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Week 11 Hitting Planner: After Draft Aftermath

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Let’s start the Week 11 Hitting Planner out with a bit of Atlanta Braves injury news. After what could have been a scary injury to a budding young star, Ronald Acuna has progressed ahead of schedule and could return to action during the Week 11 Hitting Planner.

The Braves have a solid matchup this week, but more on that later.

With the MLB draft right behind us, I also wanted to give a special congratulations to all the future fantasy superstars who heard their names called this summer.

Week 11 Hitting Planner

Weather Forecast

The Week 11 Hitting Planner projects rainfall early in the week in Washington D.C. Luckily, the Nationals travel for most of the week. They visit the east coast with series against the Yankees and the Blue Jays. The Midwest also projects for rain in the Week 11 Hitting Planner. St. Louis, Kansas City, and Chicago may see rainfall, but only the Cubs vs Cardinals series and the Royals week seem to be the only in jeopardy.

Park Factors

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Climbing the ranks all the way up to number two in HR Park Factor, Globe Life Park in Arlington has started to sizzle in the summer heat. The Rangers host the Rockies in the second half of the Week 11 Hitting Planner. Both surrender at least 1.17 HR/9 (1.39 HR/9 for the Rangers), so the sparks should continue to fly in the Texas heat.

Oriole Park in Camden Yards resides on the top of the rankings for HR PF with 1.345. The Orioles host the Red Sox as well as the Marlins. The O’s pitching staff surrenders 1.35 HR/9 only .01 more than the Marlins 1.34 HR/9 mark. Lots of homers should be expected in the second half of the week in Baltimore, but don’t forget about the Red Sox offense with their 93 HR on the season (2nd in MLB).

Stolen Base Report

The Mariners’ as a team rank 4th in successful stolen base attempts with 43. They have only been caught 11 times this season and are led by Dee Gordon (19) and Jean Segura (14). The M’s face the Red Sox and Angles in the Week 11 Hitting Planner. Both teams have only caught 16 of 54 stolen base attempts. It should be a big week for Seattle runners.

As for the team that has allowed the most stolen bases, the New York Mets will host both the Braves and the Diamondbacks. Both teams are in the top 10 in the MLB in terms of successful steals. The Dbacks (37 stolen bases) are led by Jarrod Dyson (10), but Paul Goldschmidt (2) heating up we could see him encroach on Dyson’s lead. The Braves (38) base stealers have been cold lately but could look to pick up steam on the base paths in the Week 11 Hitting Planner.

Under-The-Radar- Players

Starlin Castro, MIA (vs SFG, at BAL)

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With the Marlins heading to the top park in terms of HR park factor, Starlin Castro stands out as a player due for a power surge. Over his last 30 PA, Castro tore the cover off the ball with a slash line of .360/.448/.560 but without a home run (five doubles). The Orioles’ pitching staff allows 1.5 HR/9 at home this season, so we may have to wait till the second half of the Week 11 Hitting Planner catch a home run.

The early week matchup for Castro is another strong one. The Giants finally have ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound to start the series against the Marlins, but after that, the Giants starters look inexperienced. On the road, the Giants pitching staff sport the leagues 8th worst xFIP with an xFIP of 4.37. They are also surrendering 1.2 HR/9 on the road, but Marlins’ Park has played big all season (.836 HR PF).

Yoan Moncada, CHW (vs. CLE, vs. DET)

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Starting the month with a bit of bad luck (-0.074 wOBA-xwOBA), Yoan Moncada should easily bounce back in the Week 11 Hitting Planner. Looking at his batted ball profile since the month began, Moncada made 55.6% of his contact in the air (fly balls and line drives) with approximately 44.4% of his contact being hard contact. He has a 279 wRC+ on those balls, so with the Detriot Tigers rotation surrendering 11.7% HR/FB, Moncada’s ISO should increase in the second half of the week. Be slightly wary of the matchup with the Indians as he’s still striking out 35.5% of the time. The early week matchup could allow Moncada to rack up some steals as the Indians have only caught 6 of 34 attempted base stealers.

Charlie Culberson, ATL (vs. NYM, vs. SDP)

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With Ronald Acuna out, the Braves have turned to a platoon of Preston Tucker and Charlie Culberson in left. With the Mets and Padres coming into town, the attention should turn to Culberson who’s coming off of a hot week (3 extra base hits). Both opposing teams surrender at least 1 HR/9 against right-handed batters which should play into Culberson’s 20% HR/FB ratio over his last seven games. That number does not seem to be sustainable, but with limited exposure, the residual effects could be felt in the Week 11 Hitting Planner.

Aaron Hinckley

Aaron Hinckley

An aspiring stay at home dad, Aaron is a graduate of Mercer University who is a self proclaimed analytical nut and master grilled cheese maker.
Aaron Hinckley

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