Seriously though, where have all of the good Fantasy quarterbacks gone? As we get into the Week 11 Start-Sit picks, I am merely looking at the current crop of starters, not whether or not players out of the league would be better options.
After the Tyrod Taylor benching, the list of starting quarterbacks this weekend includes the following, in their FantasyPros.com ranked order: Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Nathan Peterman, Brett Hundley, Tom Savage, Brock Osweiler and DeShone Kizer. Excuse me while I go wash my hands after typing that list.
Obviously there are a few injuries to studs (Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, DeShaun Watson, and Andrew Luck) and capable signal callers (Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Palmer). In general though, the quarterback pool is no longer as deep as it seemed going into the season for single-QB leagues.
Trust me, I know this more than anyone as I am an avid follower of the “Wait on your QB” strategy. Of course, the one year I stray and take Rodgers in a few leagues he breaks his collarbone. Nevertheless, for the Week 11 Start-Sit we need to find the diamonds left in the rough. We also need to see who is affected negatively by the atrocious level of quarterback-play.
Speaking of atrocious, my Week 10 picks were not stellar. I was 11-8 with 8 major wins, but my “Starts” were actually under .500. My faith in the Jets and white-pass catchers was misplaced. Hopefully I can bounce back with the Week 11 Start-Sit picks.
As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 11 Start-Sit picks I am 103-62-4 with 66 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and under-performs as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.
So let’s get to the Week 11 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 11 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.
Week 11 Start-Sit
(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 11/16)
— PFF ATL Falcons (@PFF_Atlanta) November 15, 2017
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (QB13)
I know, it feels weird to talk up a quarterback going TO Seattle. With no Richard Sherman it is just not the same defense, not to mention Kam Chancellor might be out as well. Even with those guys, Seattle has really just taken advantage of bad quarterbacks. In their last five games they have given up at least 247 yards passing to every quarterback not named Eli Manning. They also have shown that they can be torched by the best signal callers (Aaron Rodgers for 311 yards, DeShaun Watson for 402 yards).
Mitch Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (QB27)
When I say that the current quarterback landscape is ugly, I truly mean it. However, I think Trubisky could have a decent game Sunday. I think the bye week helped get him some much needed extra reps and it showed last week when he threw for 297 yards and did not turn the ball over. The Lions give up the 8th most passing yards per game.
Jamaal Williams finished with 20 for 67 (about 3.4 ypc), but his running efficiency was excellent (60%).
A big reason: getting a couple extra yards on hard-fought runs like this one. pic.twitter.com/IGtc3Z4rsT
— Jack Wepfer (@jackwepfer) November 15, 2017
Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens (RB30)
With Aaron Jones hobbled and Ty Montgomery nursing multiple injuries, it is time for the rookie Williams to shine. Baltimore has given up the third most rushing yards to running backs on the season. Once Jones went down last week, the Packers showed their willingness to roll with their other rookie back and I think Williams breaks out.
Alfred Morris, RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (RB37)
I know that the offense looked horrible last week, but I thought Morris actually showed some signs of life. He had a few long runs that showed a burst. I know, the Eagles do not give up rushing yards. I also know that Dallas will try to force feed Morris to slow the pass rush down.
Samaje Perine still learning. But more patient than earlier this season. A few runs show the change. Now? Produce. https://t.co/cXdJdqMlZd
— John Keim (@john_keim) November 16, 2017
Samaje Perine, RB, Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (RB40)
With Rob Kelley done for the season, Perine will take over the backfield split with Chris Thompson. I can see Perine getting early-down work as well as the goal line carries. Kirk Cousins and his receivers have had their issues at the goal line over the past couple of seasons, so I think Perine finds his way in the end zone Sunday.
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (WR25)
I mean I am not the biggest believer in Woods, but you better be damn sure I am starting a guy averaging 30 PPR points per game after the bye week. He has increased his Fantasy output in each of the last four games. He has at least 10 points in every game but one since Week 2. While it is a tough match-up with Minnesota, he is still worthy of WR2 status.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (WR28)
I know, he had just one catch last week. The thing about the NFL is that it is a zig-zag league. There is so much parity that a team will look like world-beaters one week and cellar-dwellers the next week. The same can be said for some players: whenever they are not involved in the offense one week they will explode the next. Jones had gone four straight weeks with at least six catches and three straight with at least 96 yards. I bet he gets closer to those stats than the one-catch performance last week.
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (TE14)
With the surprising benching of Tyrod Taylor, I think Clay’s stock actually hit a slight uptick. Nathan Peterman will want to check down to his reliable tight end, meaning more targets for Clay as he continues to get up to speed off of his injury.
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST at Dallas Cowboys (DST14)
As we are about to get to in the “Sit” portion of the Week 11 Start-Sit column, the absence of Tyron Smith would boost the Eagles to arguably the top spot in the defensive rankings.
Dak Prescott saw Adrian Clayborn about six times too many on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/DfmrHlEzsX
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 13, 2017
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (QB6)
I mean did you see Chaz Green last week? Tyron Smith is still a huge question mark again this Sunday, and even if he plays he will not be 100%. The Eagles are already averaged two and a half sacks a game and have the third most interceptions in the league. It is going to be rough sledding for Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense again this week.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (RB16)
Mixon has become a bit touchdown-dependent. He has not rushed for even 50 yards since the Week 6 Bye week and has yet to crack the 70-yard mark all season. His carries have also seen a dip since the off week. Now he faces the Broncos, a team that has given up 100 rushing yards just twice all season while holding teams less than 80 yards six times.
Adrian Peterson’s 3.2 PPR fantasy points are the third-fewest by any player who had at least as many as his 22 touches in a game since 1960.
— Tristan H. Cockcroft (@SultanofStat) November 10, 2017
Adrian Peterson, RB, Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (RB17)
Last week was even worse that I could have imagined for Peterson. He had just 29 yards off of 21 carries. I’m no math major, but I can tell that his yards per carry were not that good. Now he gets the Texans who have given up the fewest Fantasy Points to running backs in the league. Houston has not given up a rushing touchdown to a back since Week 1.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals (WR11)
Hopkins will see a lot of Patrick Peterson this weekend which is never a good thing for Fantasy purposes. Against the elite receivers, Peterson has shut down Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton completely, and held Mike Evans to nothing until a garbage time touchdown. Oh, and Tom Savage is throwing Hopkins the ball.
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (WR15)
Dez did not look 100% last week and he most likely will still be struggling this week. The thing about the Philly defense is they give up plenty of catches and yards to opposing wide receivers. However they have given up just the 4th fewest touchdowns to wide-outs. For a player like Dez, who has not cracked 100 yards in OVER a calendar year, that does not equate to Fantasy goodness.
Embed from Getty Images
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons (TE5)
Speaking of touchdown-dependency, Graham has six scores over his last five games with two multiple-touchdown outings. He also has not cracked 60 yards in any of those performances. Enter a matchup with an Atlanta defense that has yielded just one score to an opposing tight end all season and has yet to give up 60 yards since Week 4. If Graham does not find the end zone, he is not worthy of starting.
That’s it for the Week 11 Start-Sit predictions! If you have any game-day questions, shoot them to me on Twitter, @Tomlin3 !
Latest posts by Michael Tomlin (see all)
- Week 14 Start-Sit: Take Some (Calculated) Swings For The Fences - December 9, 2017
- Week 13 Start-Sit: Bouncing Back With Contrarian Plays - December 1, 2017
- Week 12 Start-Sit: What Does Your Team Actually Need? - November 22, 2017
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