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Week 12 Hitting Planner: Rocky Mountain Rain

Photo Credit: Al Case

The Week 12 Hitting Planner falls in the post-draft and pre-trade deadline times. This is where teams begin to figure out if they will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. There are a lot of surprise contenders this year who may look to make small moves early in the trade season. Atlanta comes to mind first. The rebuilding Braves may not want to cash major prospects for what could be a surprisingly early competitive season, s they may look to make a trade splash early. The Week 12 Hitting Planner could be the start of the 2018 trade season.

Week 12 Hitting Planner

Weather Forecast

The Week 12 Hitting Planner should see some rain. The Midwest specifically could have a very wet week. Detroit, Chicago, and Minneapolis all project to see rain throughout the week. This could bring a halt to Dodgers vs Cubs, A’s vs. White Sox and most of the twins week. Denver projects to see rain throughout the week as well. This could mean delays to the Rockies homestead. They are set to host both the Mets and Marlins in the Week 12 Hitting Planner.

Park Factors

Coors field in Denver currently ranks second in terms of HR Park Factor. With the Rockies returning home in the Week 12 Hitting Planner, there could be a lot of fireworks in the mile high city (weather permitting). In terms of park factor, the Rockies home plays host to many high scoring games. Coors currently leads the MLB with 1.420 Runs PF and 1.294 Hits PF as well as being in the top ten in every other category. With the Mets and Marlins coming into town, look for lots of offense in the Week 12 Hitting Planner (weather permitting).

Stolen Base Report

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Speaking of the Mets, they continue their inability to catch runners stealing. Entering the Week 12 Hitting Planner, the Mets have allowed a league-leading 57 stolen bases while only catching 15. They will head to Colorado to face the Rockies who are lead in stolen bases by Trevor Story. He has 9 of the teams 39 steals (10th in MLB). The Mets will host the Dodgers in the second half of the Week 12 Hitting Planner. The Dodgers only have 24 stolen bases as a team, but this might be a matchup Dave Roberts looks to exploit.

Looking at other exploitable matchups takes up to the Nationals. Led by Trae Turner and Michael Taylor, the Nationals rank second in terms of stolen bases this season and will face two of the 10 worst teams in terms of stolen bases allowed. Washington hosts Baltimore (46 SBA, 4th worst in MLB) and Philadelphia (38 SBA, 8th worst in MLB). Maybe Bryce Harper gets into the fun, but at least we know Taylor and Turner will look to run in the Week 12 Hitting Planner.

Under-The-Radar- Players

Trevor Story, COL (vs. NYM, vs. MIA)

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A perfect storm might be brewing in Denver in the Week 12 Hitting Planner. While storms may actually dampen the fun, the Rockies and shortstop, Trevor Story, are set to face both the Mets and Marlins. As previously mentioned, Coors field leans towards high scoring games, and both the Mets and Marlins pitching staffs surrender at least 1.1 HR/9. Trevor Story will be the man standing in the eye of the storm.

Over his last 26 PA, Story’s bat has been red hot. He’s slashing .385/.385/.534 with four extra-base hits (0 HR). He’s made 71.4% of his contact in the air with 57.1% of his overall contact being classified as hard contact. This last week has seen Story’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives rise to 95.8 mph. Look for Story to bring the thunder in the Week 12 Hitting Planner, but as previously mentioned he could also supply the lightning. The Mets haven’t been able to stop many runners from stealing, so Story (Rockies leader in steals) could contribute in a major way to every standard category this week.

Leonys Martin, DET (at CIN, at CLE)

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On the surface, Tigers outfielder, Leonys Martin, enters the Week 12 Hitting Planner on a bit of a skid. For the month, he’s sporting a 127 wRC+, but over his last 28 PA, that numbers dwindled to 68. That production seems to have plummeted due to a bit of bad luck (-.051 wOBA-xwOBA) and a GB% that creeping up. Luck will only get him so far, but with matchups at two of the top 10 parks in terms of HR PF, Martin should bust out of this slide in a big fashion. Even in this mini-slump, Martin hits the ball hard (43.8 Hard%) and continues to hit fly balls (43.8% FB%). He’s hitting over .330 on FB in this stretch leading to a 169 wRC+. As the Tigers leadoff hitter, he could be in terms of power production as his at-bats pile up in the Week 12 Hitting Planner.

Aaron Hinckley

Aaron Hinckley

An aspiring stay at home dad, Aaron is a graduate of Mercer University who is a self proclaimed analytical nut and master grilled cheese maker.
Aaron Hinckley

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