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Week 13 DFS picks: Taking A Beating

week 13 dfs picks
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Man oh man did I take a beating this past week. For the first time this season, I lost in every one of my seasonal money leagues. And I had a few DFS wins, but so many big DFS losses that I need to deposit more money. As I said, a beating.

Last week I also switched the format up a little. The format switch and the beating I took are probably not related. However, I’m being overly superstitious, so back to the usual format.

When you take a beating, you want to move on quickly, so let’s get right to this week’s picks.

Week 13 DFS Picks

Cash Game Pick of the Week

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FD $7500

This is not the franchise WR’s first time being recommended in this spot. And last time I did so, he put up a dud. However, the last time he was priced this low he notched 95 yards and a touchdown. And that was against Arizona. This week he takes on Green Bay who is the fourth most generous team in giving up Fantasy points to wide receivers.

Throw in the fact that he hasn’t scored in five weeks, let’s just say he’s due. And that’s just not gut, but positive regression to a mean. Expecting him to score a dozen times again this year is ambitious, but the fact with just five left weeks to go, Evans only has a third of what he had last year, the scores are coming. Meanwhile, while Evans is on the sideline…

GPP Pick of the Week

Jordy Nelson (FD $6400 DK $4400)

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I have been fading Nelson all season. And he’s understandably become a very unpopular pick with DFS players as he has disappointed week after week. But now is the time to jump back on him. I don’t like him as a WR1 or even a WR2, but he’s priced down in the Jermaine Kearse and Devante Parker area. I’m not one to spring for a Rolex or drive a Jaguar, but if you offer me the former legitimately for the price of a Seiko or the latter for the price of a Hyundai, you better believe you have my attention.

Additionally, Hundley has looked better each week and they are facing the most generous pass defense for Fantasy receivers, I’m buying.

 

GPP Lineup of the Week

QB Geno Smith (FD $6000 DK $4500)

I’m sure Geno Smith has done something since the beating he got in training camp last year. Just don’t ask me what. Because you have to be absolutely crazy to choose Geno Smith this week. (Nodding and smiling slyly) Crazy like a fox.

WR Sterling Shepard (FD $6700 DK $7000)

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Don’t laugh. If I’m grabbing Geno, I’m grabbing Shepard. I’ll be the one laughing when he has 10 catches for over 100 yards.

WR Jordy Nelson (FD $6400 DK $4400)

See above.

WR Dede Westbrook (FD $4700 DK $4100)

He had 10 targets last week. That won’t happen again, but it tells me that Blake Bortles is willing to look his way. I’m willing to take the chance that Bortles looks his way against the putrid Indy secondary.

RB Todd Gurley (FD $8800 DK $8200)

Given the amount of caution I’m throwing to the wind, I need an anchor or two. Gurley fits that bill.

RB Alex Collins (FD $5900 DK $4500)

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Since the Ravens bye, Alex Collins is averaging 18 carries and more than four targets a game. With Danny Woodhead healthy, I expect those targets to plummet. But consider the following facts:

  • Collins is averaging just under five YPC on the season
  • He has scored each of the last two weeks
  • The Ravens are facing Detroit, who is giving up the fifth most Fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Facts can sometimes be hard to argue with, especially at his price. And if you don’t like this pick for your Fan Duel team, pivot to the guy below.

FLEX Leonard Fournette (FD $8700 DK $7800)

Earlier this week Doug Marrone addressed the fact that they have been under their league-leading rushing average each of the last three games. “It’s something we have to change. We want to be able to run the football and put ourselves in manageable situations…”

Get ready for a heavy dose of Fournette.

TE Jared Cook (FD $5500 DK $5400)

Lots of interesting ways to go this week at TE. The Giants are still giving up the most Fantasy points to TEs and with Michael Crabtree out, this felt like a pretty safe bet.

DST Chargers (FD $5300 DK $4000)

I like both the top two DST options this week. I think Jacksonville can still meet their price, but I went with the cheaper Chargers because otherwise I was just short in Draft Kings. Plus, can you see the Chargers not getting a pick or two and a few sacks against Deshone Kizer and the Browns? Me neither.

K Greg Zuerlein ($5300 FD)

He’s had 17 or more Fan Duel Fantasy points in four of his last five games. I have plenty of salary left over, no reason not to spend up for the top kicker.

 

Well that’s it for me this week. Hopefully you’ve avoided the kind of beating I took last week, but if you haven’t, just remember to pick yourself up and continue about your business. After all everybody takes a beating sometime….

 

 

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Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.
Mark Strausberg

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