Thanksgiving weekend was a good time for my Start or Sit picks and I hope to continue the momentum into my Week 13 Start or Sit predictions.
After a couple of down weeks, I now have two above-par weeks in a row. The picks finished 10-5-1 but with only one major win. This week, we will hope to find a few more wide gaps in the rankings.
This week there is a couple of old running backs that are ready to hit the December wall.
As always, if a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 84-65-1 for the year heading into the Week 13 Start or Sit plays, with 46 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 13 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 13 Start or Sit
(All rankings are based off of the SCFE Staff Consensus PPR Rankings as of 11/30)
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (QB13)
What got lost in the quagmire of the 14-5 Tampa Bay win over Seattle last week was how strongly Jameis and Mike Evans started the game. They made Richard Sherman look pedestrian. I know it tailed off, but that was more because Seattle just could not move the ball. San Diego will be able to put up some points, so Jameis will have to keep up. The Chargers have given up the sixth most passing yards per game and I think Winston finishes as a Top-5 option this week to kick off the Week 13 Start or Sit predictions.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (QB15)
Say what you want about whether Cousins is a “good” quarterback, (I side with the situation makes him look good) but he has been about as consistent as you get for Fantasy purposes. He has only one game with less than 260 yards, and that was against the Browns as they were blowing them out and he already had three touchdowns. In his past four games, he has multiple touchdowns in each and has thrown for 449 yards or more twice. Arizona just got torn apart by Matt Ryan and they have all but given up on the season. Cousins is a Top-5 option as well this week.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles (RB26)
With Giovani Bernard out, Hill has taken on a more complete running back role. Hill had a career high six catches for 61 yards last week against Baltimore. The Eagles are pretty solid against running backs, so don’t expect a massive day. There just are not enough three-down backs in the league for Hill to be outside of the Top 20.
Tim Hightower, RB, New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions (RB29)
The past couple of weeks have shown that there is more than enough Fantasy Production to go around the New Orleans backfield. As Mark Ingram has been an absolute stud, Hightower still has 100 total yards in four of the past five games. The one game he did not, was against arguably the best defense in the league, Denver. Hightower has become a balanced back, with 50-plus yards receiving and rushing in both of the last two games. The Lions defense against Fantasy running backs looks good, however it is misleading. They have given up almost 1,000 rushing yards, but only two touchdowns. I feel like regression is coming here.
Shaun Draughn, RB, San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (RB44)
Draughn has turned into a PPR-machine for San Francisco. In the last three games that he has finished, Draughn has averaged almost five catches a game and caught two touchdowns. He might not be a must-start in a 10-team standard league, but if you are in a deeper PPR league with an extra flex, you could do worse.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (WR26)
I guess some people have not been paying attention to Hill. He has at least 10 PPR points in the last three games, including his monster 32.5-point Sunday night performance. I know, Jeremy Maclin might be back. But for a team completely void of big-playmakers, Hill will have a role. He is without a doubt a WR2.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (WR33)
Watkins came back quite strongly after his eight game absence with three catches for 80 yards. The most impressive statistic is he did this on just 25 snaps. That number is expected to bump up to about 40 plays against the Raiders, who have given up over 2,000 yards to opposing wide receivers already this season. If you were able to pick Watkins up off of the waiver wire, he is about to pay off huge dividends. Watkins is the best play of the Week 13 Start or Sit.
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 30, 2016
Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (WR29)
A lot has been made about Odell Beckham’s amazing start to his career, as he has 252 total catches in his third season. Well his former teammate Jarvis Landry has 258 catches at the same point in his career. Landry has at least three catches in every game this season. In fact, he only has one game with less than three catches since the first game of his career. Now his yardage is down, and his touchdown total obscenely low, but with DeVante Parker breaking out, there should be more room to work with for Landry.
Lance Kendricks, TE, Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (TE17)
Kendricks has become one of Goff’s favorite targets. In both games that Goff has started, Kendricks has seven targets and four catches. If my tight end is getting me four catches, I promise you he will finish higher than 17th at the position.
San Francisco 49ers DST at Chicago Bears (DST14)
With the Browns on a Bye Week, the DST streaming takes a hit. I will go with the 49ers against Matt Barkley. Barkley looked decent last week, but I think he is much worse and ready to show it.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (QB6)
This has more to do with other players I like more than Luck. Although, he is coming off a concussion and was less than stellar the month before the injury. He has only topped 285 yards once since October 9. He will be serviceable, but not a Top-10 quarterback this week.
Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts (RB15)
There will be a theme with my Week 13 Start or Sit running backs on the sit end: age. Matt Forte is a 30-year old running back entering December and on pace for the most carries in his career, almost 300. What is especially alarming is the four game stretch with 87 carries and almost 100 total touches before the Jets’ Bye Week. Some thought that the time off would help, but Forte looked quite aged, rushing for just 27 yards on 13 carries against New England. I don’t care how good the match-up is, I will be staying away from Forte this week.
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (RB23)
The other half of the aged-RB duo and starter in the same game, Frank Gore is three years older than Forte with much more wear on the tires. Gore has not rushed for more than 61 yards since Week 6, and has only scored a rushing touchdown in one game since Week 4. Not only is he old, but the Jets have allowed the seventh fewest rushing yards in the league. December is where old running backs go to die, for Fantasy purposes.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions (WR9)
— Saints News Network™ (@SaintsNews) November 30, 2016
Cooks had the first zero-catch game of his career last week against Los Angeles, in a game in which the Saints scored 49 points. Most pundits think this happening with the reported frustrations he has about it, will result in a massive game this week. I think Sean Payton and Drew Brees don’t play that whining game. In fact, in a game that Drew Brees threw the ball 36 times to 9 different receiving options, there had to be something going on for Cooks to not get a single target. Something else is up, and I am waiting to start Cooks until it pans out.
Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (WR24)
Matthews is dealing with an ankle injury that forced him to leave the Green Bay game early. He already had a decreasing amount of catches and yards over the past four games with zero touchdowns. Carson Wentz is utilizing all of his targets now, especially Dorial Green-Beckham. Both of these trends make me wary of Matthews going forward.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams (TE7)
The Gronk left the game against the Jets after just a few plays, screwing all of his Fantasy Owners. He is questionable again this week, but I’m not sure I would trust him even if he starts. There is too much likelihood that he leaves the game early again and too much on the line this close to the Playoffs.
That’s it for the Week 13 Start or Sit predictions! For any lineup questions, please Tweet me @Tomlin3 or consult our rankings!
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