Week 16 DFS Sleepers and Busts: My Savage Christmas

By on December 23, 2016
Week 16 DFS Sleepers and Busts Photo Credit: Karen

Now, here comes the third and final batch of Fantasy players who unfortunately didn’t make it to the finals in season long leagues.

I hope you have come to cope with all of us and take a look at the Week 16 DFS Sleepers and Busts article.

It is an interesting slate of games this weekend, as we have 12 games on Christmas eve, two games on Christmas and one on Monday night.

The piece for this week does include players for both, the Christmas eve games, as well as Christmas day.

Lets look at last weeks picks.

                                         Big Hitters

Sleepers

Busts

Tyrod Taylor, 15.9 DK & FD T.Y. Hilton, 7.5 DK, 6 FD

                                 Solid Buys and Fades

Sleepers

Busts

Hunter Henry, 12.7 DK, 11.2 FD Ben Roethlisberger, 14.9 DK & FD
Larry Fitzgerald, 11.7 DK, 7.2 FD

                                    Swing and Miss

Sleepers

Busts

Blake Bortles, 8.2 DK & FD Andrew Luck, 18.8 DK & FD
Kenneth Farrow, 6.3 DK, 4.3 FD DeMarco Murray, 19.1 DK, 16.6 FD

Before I get into this weeks sleepers and busts piece, I just wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and good luck this week in DFS! Lets roll.

Week 16 DFS Sleepers and Busts

Quarterback Sleepers

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (5,700 DK, 7,600 FD)

 

Matchup. Check.

Price. Check.

All we need to know, move along. Kidding, but the matchup is a big part in Colin Kaepernick being an interesting play in Week 16 of the NFL season. He is the ultimate matchup guy. If you look at his game log, the big numbers you see are against very poor defenses and the stinker games have come against tough defenses.

Sign me up for a matchup against the Rams! This defense is last in almost every passing category on the season and especially since Week 11. 12 touchdowns to only one interception which is the worst ratio in that span. They are second worst in completion percentage at 71.2% and they are the worst in QBR at 120.0. The Rams defense isn’t the only bad defense in this game. The 49ers aren’t much better, so as we have seen all year long, Kaepernick will have to continue to make some plays in this ugly game.

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (5,400 DK, 7,500 FD)

The price is a bit steeper on FanDuel, but I believe he exceeds his price on both sites on Sunday. In three games since 2015, Taylor has five touchdowns to zero interceptions and has completed 66% of passes in those games. In two of the three games, Taylor has had over seven carries and scored a rushing touchdown in one. In all but three games this season, he has had at least five rushing attempts.

We have also seen this year at home, Taylor has run much better and more efficiently. He has managed 5.1 Y/A on the road while at home he has a 7.5 Y/A mark. This is also a Dolphins defense who allowed Marcus Mariota to run for 60 yards on seven carries and a touchdown. Kaepernick also ran for 113 yards on 10 carries. We have seen them have problems with running quarterbacks this season and why should that stop this weekend?

Quarterback Busts

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (6,800 DK, 7,800 FD)

 

We have seen Kirk Cousins have a fantastic season this year and that is just great, but we can’t hand out a cookie this week to captain Kirk. Since Week 13, the guy has just three touchdowns to three interceptions. You add two lost fumbles on top of that and you have yourself an average quarterback, which is makes sense based on price. The yards are nice but you have got to stop committing turnovers captain Kirk.

The Chicago Bears defense has been no joke in the second half of the season. Since Week 11, the Bears are in the Top 10 in terms of completion percentage, passing touchdowns, and passing yards allowed. The quarterbacks in that span include Marcus Mariota, Colin Kaepernick, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. Three of those four have been elite quarterbacks this season.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7,400 DK, 8,500 FD)

You can’t roll with Drew Brees who is the second or third highest in terms of price on both sites this weekend. His stats against the Buccaneers over the last few years are quite interesting as well. I am sure that Brees will not be focused on his recent history with the Bucs but could it be in the back of his mind? I hope so, because I am writing about him being on the bust list! Anyway, check these numbers out.

In his last five meetings with the Bucs, he has six touchdowns and 10 interceptions… Other than his QBR of 113.1, in his other four games he has never surpassed an 80.5 QBR. His last matchup came just two weeks ago when he failed to throw a passing touchdown. We saw Brees throw three passes to the wrong team as well.

If the Buccaneers want to win again, we may see the same formula of 35 rushing attempts compared to just 26 passing attempts for Jameis Winston. Ball control will keep Brees of the field, which is never good for the Saints and more importantly, it is why he makes the bust list.

 

Running Back Sleepers

Kenneth Farrow, San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (5,000 DK, 6,100 FD)

I did get some flak for my call last weekend as Kenneth Farrow made the sleeper list, but hey, what are you going to do? He got what I thought he was going to get, at least in terms of touches. He got 17 touches (15 rushing, 2 receptions) but couldn’t get anything going. I understand, but just look at this matchup! Since Week 11, only the Miami Dolphins have a worse rushing yards per attempt. The Browns are sporting a god awful 5.59 Y/A. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns in that span and the most rushing yards allowed at 743 in four games… That is 185.75 yards per game.

Melvin Gordon is due back this season at some point, but playing on a short week, I don’t see any chance he plays. We didn’t see him at practice on Wednesday, so it’s just not a great sign. I could see more work given to Farrow in this one because of the game flow. I expect the Chargers to be up big in this one, which will allow Farrow to get some more runs later in the game. I want Farrow in every lineup this weekend.

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4,400 DK, 6,300 FD)

 

He mainly makes the list based off of his price on DraftKings. In his game last week against the Cardinals, he managed 17 carries for 78 yards and two catches for 14 yards, which is a solid day of work for Mark Ingram, I would say.

If I were to tell you that the Saints scored 48 points and three touchdowns were scored by running backs, you would have guessed that at least one of the them went to the big fella. Nope, of course not. I mean, lets not give it to the 215 pound back at the goal line. He lost me a chance to reach the championship in one of my leagues because Ingram failed to reach the end zone. Enough ranting. I wasn’t the only one complaining either. Of course, Twitter and Fantasy owners were complaining as well, but Ingram was frustrated as well.

You may remember the game against the Seahawks where he lost a fumble and never saw the field. His next game, Ingram ran for 158 yards on just 15 carries, one touchdown and one receiving touchdown. Ingram is like the stock market, when he has a bad game, that’s when you start him the next week.

Running Back Busts

Bilal Powell, New York Jets at New England Patriots (6,000 DK, 6,500 FD)

This is a really high price for Powell going up against the top run defense since Week 11 in yards per attempt at 2.99. One of those games does include these Jets, where we saw Powell and Matt Forte split carries. In that game, Powell had 36 rushing yards on eight carries. Only one running back has reached over 10 standard Fantasy points in that span (Kenneth Dixon). The argument can’t really be made that the Patriots are always up in games which forces teams to pass. The YPA (2.99) tells the story of this run defense.

Given that Jets opponent, they will have to pass in order to keep up, thus limiting the run. He is a pass catching back so his points will come through the air, but they will be tough to rely on here.

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (6,500 DK, 7,900 FD)

 

It is funny seeing Todd Gurley’s price be amped up due to the matchup. In about half the games this season, Gurley has had very favorable matchups and what has he done? I knew he was having a bad season but listen to this stat. In only two games this season, Gurley has eclipsed over four yards per carry. On the season his yards per attempt is sitting at 3.2.

Wow, has he been a bust this year or what. We saw Gurley take on this same 49ers defense in Week 1 and he still only had 47 yards on 17 carries (2.8 Y/A). If he hasn’t been able to get it done at all this year, what makes you think he can do anything this week?

 

Wide Receiver Sleepers

Malcolm Mitchell, New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (5,200 DK, 6,100 FD)

I would say that the Denver Broncos game went as we all thought it would. A lot of Julian Edelman and the running game. Prior to this game, Mitchell had over 12 Fantasy points in FanDuel and DraftKings between Weeks 11-14.

The touchdown to interception ratio is not good for the New York Jets since Week 11 or for that matter all year long (27-7 this season and 11-1 since Week 11). Mitchell’s best game came against the Jets in Week 12, as he saw seven targets and caught five of them for 42 yards and two touchdowns.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5,200 DK, 6,600 FD)

 

The Bengals have been better as of late against the pass, but as a Hopkins owner, you have to love the change at QB (Tom Savage). Brock Osweiler was benched midway through the second quarter last week and to that point, Hopkins hadn’t caught a pass. He finished the game with eight catches on 17 targets and 87 yards in a comeback victory.

The price is still a bit deflated based off of what he has shown us all season, but you have got to think that Savage will find a way to get the ball to Hopkins more. Also, who doesn’t like a quarterback on the field with the last name Savage.

Wide Receiver Busts

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (6,400 DK, 6,500 FD)

I just do not like this game whatsoever for Fantasy purposes on both sides of the ball. Kansas City is one of the toughest venues to play at and we saw what the Broncos did last Sunday against the Patriots.

As of Wednesday night, the weather forecast looks very hairy. At game time, the forecast shows an 80% chance of precipitation and winds up to 22 mph. He has zero touchdowns since Week 10, and in his last outing against the Chiefs he caught eight passes on five targets for 60 yards. This is a worse situation this week given the game is on the road and in very tough conditions. No way.

Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts (6,500 DK, 7,200 FD)

One of the calls that could absolutely blow up in my face, but look at his game log! Since his massive game in Week 8, Cooper has failed to haul in more than six passes. The amount of targets aren’t overwhelming either (8, 5, 7, 4, 10, 3). He also has not reached more than 60 yards in that span! Now, the matchup may look very sweet, but the Colts pass defense has been reasonable since Week 11. They have allowed only four touchdowns have also forced five interceptions. We will see how this one goes.

 

Tight End Sleeper

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (3,900 DK, 5,600 FD)

 

Did you know that Mr. Cameron Brate is the fifth highest scoring tight end this year in standard scoring? Ahead of Jordan Reed, Antonio Gates, Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz. Still feel like DraftKings or FanDuel know this. Going up against a Saints defense who has turned back into a mediocre secondary. One of the more safe tight ends on the market against a Saints team, I’ll take that to the bank.

Tight End Bust

Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (5,500 DK, 7,000 FD)

Promise me you will not be that person who sneaks Jordan Reed into your lineup once you hear he is active for Saturdays game. Very short week for the Redskins due to playing this past Monday and that doesn’t bode well for a still lingering Reed shoulder. Head coach Jay Gruden has said that he expects Reed to be out there on Saturday but it is tough to trust how many snaps he plays.

We saw him on Monday night on mostly passing downs and that was it. As I talked about with Kirk Cousins, this Chicago Bears passing defense has been great since the second half.

Josh Carlson

Josh Carlson

Josh recently graduated in 2015 with his Bachelor's in Business Administration, from Husson University. He currently works for Sports Radar covering professional teams in the Texas area. You can also find him blowing money on DraftKings and FanDuel. Always remember the motto: Numbers do tell a story. Find him on facebook as well as twitter @Josh_Carls0n. Yes, that is the number zero in my last name. I love numbers.
Josh Carlson

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