Week 17 DFS Sleepers and Busts: Going Out With A Bang
I swear the NFL zooms by quicker than any other sport. Week 17 DFS Sleepers and busts column! Feels odd, last game of the year.
It has been a fun football season and the real fun hasn’t even begun.
This week is all about the researchers. Some teams have clinched. Some teams have not. Every coach has a different mentality. Some like to rest players, some don’t. Some who are out of the race want to see what they have for the future so they play their young guns to see what they have. Again, can’t stress this enough, especially this week to double check your lineups and to check up on Twitter from team beat reporters to get last minute information related to how long players will be playing in some of these ‘meaningless’ games.
|Tyrod Taylor, 34.2 DK, 31.2 FD||Demaryius Thomas, 5 DK, 3.5 FD|
|Mark Ingram, 25.3 DK, 24.3 FD||Jordan Reed, 1.6 DK, 1.1 FD|
|Colin Kaepernick, 27.1 DK & FD|
Solid Buys and Fades
|Cameron Brate, 8.2 DK, 7.7 FD||Bilal Powell, 9.4 DK, 8.4 FD|
|Drew Brees, 16.1 DK & FD|
Swing and Miss
|Malcolm Mitchell, 5.9 DK, 4.4 FD||Kirk Cousins, 29.8 DK & FD|
|DeAndre Hopkins, 7.3 DK, 5.8 FD|
Lets get right into it for the last regular season week shall we.
Week 17 DFS Sleepers and Busts
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (5,600 DK, 7,600 FD)
All based on matchup for Blake Bortles as he takes on the Indianapolis Colts defense to finish up this NFL season. The Colts defense has played better as of late but they are still rank tied for third worst in the league in terms of interceptions. I find that to be the key stat because of Bortles’ struggles with protecting the football.
In his last three meetings against the divisional opponent, the dude has six touchdowns to zero picks. With Andrew Luck putting up points as of late, sporting at least 25 points in 3 of the last 4 games, I think we may get a high scoring game once again. Does this last game just scream garbage time or pad your stats. I mean, I can hear the screams. Fire up the champ of garbage time.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (5,700 DK, 7,400 FD)
Had a real tough time finding that second sleeper at quarterback just in part because of tough matchups and figuring out who’s going to be playing all 60 minutes at that position. If you look at Carson Palmer’s last few games, his numbers are just fine. Much better than to start this season.
In 3 of his last 4 games, he has a QBR over 105, over 61.5% of his passes completed and over 280 passing yards. In that 4 game stretch he has thrown 8 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. The Rams have faced upper echelon quarterbacks in recent weeks but, I still don’t trust the secondary. The front seven could get after Palmer but dump offs to David Johnson could be what makes you cash.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (7,200 DK, 9,100 FD)
Tom Brady lands number one in terms of price on FanDuel this week. That’s even by $300 over Aaron Rodgers. I still don’t see Tom Brady outperforming his price on DraftKings.
Before I get into why I hate Tom Brady for this week, you’ve got to understand that I may be the biggest Patriots honk in the world and my affection for him is not normal. It was very tough to put the great, Tom Brady on this list.
More based on where this game is being played more than anything. Did you know that since 2011, Tom Brady’s most touchdowns thrown IN Miami is two? Did you also know that in those four games since 2011, his touchdown to interception ratio is 4-2? His highest QBR in those four games occurred in a game back in 2013 where they lost and it was at 85.7. I may not be able to sleep tonight having put Brady on this list.
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants (6,500 DK, 7,900 FD)
A defense that has allowed four touchdowns and picked off five passes in four games will absolutely land the opposing quarterback in Kirk Cousins on the busted list. Now, what’s more impressive is the quarterbacks that they have faced in that span as well; Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz. Three of those four are legit quarterbacks that were shut down against the Giants.
This defense gives up the second fewest Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. It helps when you have allowed only two quarterbacks this season to eclipse over 20 standard Fantasy points. I do really like Kirk Cousins but he has also really struggled in his last four games, totaling only four touchdowns to three interceptions.
Running Back Sleepers
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (5,100 DK, 6,400 FD)
I want to have as many players in this game as possible on Sunday. This matchup has the highest over/under point total in Week 17 by far, sitting at 56.5. Both sit in the bottom 10, defensively in terms of points allowed this season. The Saints also give up the fifth most Fantasy points to running backs and get this, they have allowed seven running backs to total over at least 43 receiving yards. One of them being Tevin Coleman, back in Week 3.
Don’t mind me while I spew off his stat line in that game; 12 carries for 42 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and caught all three of his targets for 47 yards. His running mate had himself a day as well so don’t be scared about the RB situation, they have been doing this all season. Why stop now.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (4,900 DK, 5,200 FD)
The Carolina Panthers didn’t sense the Jacquizz Rodgers show the last time these two faced in Week 5 where he ran the ball 30 times for 101 yards and had five catches for 28 yards receiving. Interesting to see the price not jacked up similar to what they have done for Jets running back, Bilal Powell.
We know Rodgers is going to be given the ball a ton in this one, with BOTH, Doug Martin and Charles Sims out for the finale. This is also a Carolina defense who is fourth highest in yards per attempt at 5.57 since Week 11. They have also given up five rushing touchdowns in that span as well.
Everyone needs to exploit Rodgers’ price as much as they can. For a guy who will absolutely see over 20 touches, that price doesn’t match. DFS lock of the week as a sleeper.
Running Back Busts
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (5,900 DK, 7,300 FD)
Lets keep the lock of the week rolling with Jay Ajayi taking the cake this week for DFS lock of the week as a bust. The one thing we love from Ajayi is the workload each and every week. I mean, look at last weeks 32 carries for 206 rushing yards. He did come out of that game with a shoulder problem and he’s been listed as limited all week.
You can look at Ajayi from the stand point of he could see over 25 carries again due in large part to Matt Moore still under center. You could also look at his role from the stand point of the Dolphins have already clinched. How much does he play with his shoulder not 100% and how effective will he be.
Ajayi is also going up against a Patriots defense who over the last four weeks has not allowed a rushing touchdown and are sitting at a nice 3.38 yards per attempt. What do we think Bill Belichicks game plan is going to be? Stopping Matt Moore or Jay Ajayi? I’ll let you decide that one.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (5,700 DK, 6,700 FD)
Similar to the Patriots, at least in the past, it is tough to rely upon a running back in this offense. The Lions rushing defense has been pretty solid all year long. In terms of rushing touchdowns allowed, they have been phenomenal. Only the New England Patriots have given up fewer rushing touchdowns than the Detroit Lions. (eight rushing TD)
If the Packers win this game, it’s going to be because of Aaron Rodgers, not Ty Montgomery, sorry. Arguably the best divisional game of the weekend in this one.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (5,700 DK, 6,800 FD)
Who would have thought that Davante Adams would be 34 yards away from a 1,000 yard season and have 10 touchdowns through 15 games. What a turn around this kid has had this season. It may be a hunch, but I feel like Adams is going to go off on Sunday.
Again, as I pointed out above on Ty Montgomery, if the Packers win this game, it will be because of Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack. It would not shock me if Adams found the end zone multiple times
Devante Parker, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (4,300 DK, 6,300 FD)
It is a pretty big price discrepancy here. I would prefer him in DraftKings but if you can get him into your FanDuel lineup, it wouldn’t be a bad idea. Matt Moore seemed to trust Parker more than Jarvis Landry in the passing game as he saw one more target. He caught four passes on seven targets for 85 yards and a score.
I know I remember that the last time these two teams played, Parker debuted against them and caught eight passes on 13 targets for 106 yards. Does Malcolm Butler get put in the slot against Landry which would free up Parker even more? I think the Dolphins are forced to throw in this game as the Patriots will likely force Moore to beat them rather than Jay Ajayi running wild.
Wide Receiver Busts
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (5,400 DK, 6,000 FD)
Man have the Vikings really fallen since their 5-0 start to the season and unfortunately they brought Stefon Diggs down under as well. Since Week 11, Diggs’ highest yardage total is 59 yards and he has only visited the end zone once. The one touchdown came last week in garbage time.
Adam Thielen has been at times, the go-to target for Sam Bradford which has obviously hurt Diggs’ value tremendously. The Chicago Bears have been very pedestrian this season but this defense has really shown some promise. All year long and especially in the last four weeks. Two touchdowns to two picks in that span and they have allowed the second fewest passing yards at 710. This game will be an ugly one, that I will guarantee.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders (6,300 DK, 6,600 FD)
I am sorry Broncos fans that Demaryius Thomas makes the bust list once again. I am just not a fan of this guy or any receiver who is soft for that matter. This Denver offense has been a disaster this season. They just have not been consistent whatsoever.
Over the last three games, the Broncos offense has scored 23 points … combined. We may end up seeing Paxton Lynch thrown into the mix on Sunday as the Broncos playoff hopes ended last weekend. We will probably see CB Sean Smith on Thomas as well to match his size. The battle of backup quarterbacks in this one. Oh boy.
Tight End Sleeper
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (3,600 DK, 5,800 FD)
Nice price on DraftKings for Mr. Eric Ebron as what looks like a high scoring game. Was very nice to see a big game from Ebron last weekend as he had struggled big time in recent weeks. Eight catches on 12 targets for 93 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. Have you also seen the tight end position? It’s quite rough.
Tight End Bust
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants (5,100 DK, 7,000 FD)
I get that the tight position is scarce and that this guy is such a difference maker for you, but the combination of matchup and health makes him very risky. Head coach Jay Gruden did say that Reed had gotten more done in Thursday’s practice and that he looks good. Over the last three weeks, the Giants have allowed Jason Witten, Eric Ebron and Zach Ertz to not get over 36 receiving yards. Too risky for me.
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