My first week of Weekly Value Based Drafting is the books, and there are definitely some positive signs to take away from it. To look more at how I break down my strategy, please check out the Week 1 article where I go into more detail about the process.
My strategy using the Value Factor for each player produced the top scoring quarterback of the Sunday/Monday games, Carson Palmer. The second QB I gave you, Alex Smith, actually gave you the third most points. Both of those guys were had for $7,700 and $6,600 respectively.
As far as running backs go, my elite picks did out score their high cost brethren. Matt Forte finished with the second most points and Eddie Lacy came in with the ninth most. The lower cost backs I suggested did not perform quite as well, but we will get back to that.
My wide receiver and tight end picks were solid, but not spectacular. Randall Cobb found the end zone and Larry Fitzgerald outperformed his expected projections. Martellus Bennett and Jordan Cameron both had solid weeks; they were just overlooked by the breakouts of Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Tyler Eifert.
So let’s look at the breakdown.
Week 2 Daily Fantasy Football: Value Based Drafting Targets
What We Learned
I think the biggest takeaway is to definitely take the lower cost quarterback with the good match-up. Not only do you get a lot of bang for your buck, but this route last week gave the top-three scoring QBs at low values.
I also think going with two of the elite, higher priced running backs may be the best strategy as well. Alfred Blue and Lamar Miller seemed like solid value plays, but you just cannot get the same production that you can out of the Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy tier.
As far as the pass catchers go, I think you have to go with one stud and the rest value plays. I just missed on Julio (he was my next highest VF) and that would have given me an outstanding week.
As it stood, using my suggestions you could have scored over 130 points with Palmer, Forte, Lacy, Cobb, Fitzgerald, Colston, and Bennett. I am adding the Thursday games in this week and if there is more progress, I’ll throw in the kickers and defenses next week.
(All prices and scoring are by FanDuel settings and the Value Factor (VF) is a number that basically gives you projected points per thousand dollars)
Value of the Week
Brandon Coleman, VF : 3.70
Coleman had a tough matchup last week but still produced 12.1 Fantasy points on FanDuel. Most importantly, he had only one fewer target than Brandin Cooks and his match-up is much friendlier this week with a Buccaneers defense that gave up a perfect QB Rating last week to a rookie.
Jameis Winston, VF : 4.00
Cam Newton, VF : 4.00
Winston and Newton are facing the two defenses that got torched by Palmer and Smith last week, New Orleans and Houston. At just $6,600 and $7,700 respectively, these two should give value beyond their price with such juicy match-ups.
Chris Johnson, VF : 4.94
Carlos Hyde, VF : 5.17
Matt Forte, VF : 5.24
Marshawn Lynch, VF : 5.30
As you can see, the running back Value Factors are much higher this week as FanDuel has a little more information to go on in their pricing. Chris Johnson is the best cheap option at $5,700 and getting to run against an awful Chicago defense.
Forte should catch a ton of passes this week as the Saints running backs combined for 15 catches and 154 yards last week against Arizona. Lynch will be getting the Packers, of which Forte scored 25.1 points against them last week.
Carlos Hyde seems to be mis-priced still at just $7,000. This could be the last week that you get him at anything less than eight grand.
Antonio Brown, VF : 4.81
Julio Jones, VF : 5.01
Terrance Williams, VF : 5.01
Pierre Garcon, VF : 5.03
Antonio Brown will probably be one of the best values every week just because the price cannot be high enough for him to disappoint. He simply is the most consistent wide receiver in Fantasy Football by a significant margin.
Jones is probably second on the consistency list and he will be opposite Brown as your elite target each week.
Williams and Garcon are the beneficiaries of injuries to the top targets in their respective offenses. With Dez Bryant on the shelf, Williams should see a significant increase in targets and blow his price of $6,300 out of the water.
Garcon will be without his deep-threat sidekick DeSean Jackson and is still only priced at $5,400.
Heath Miller, VF : 5.72
Jason Witten, VF : 5.90
Witten will be the other key beneficiary of the Bryant injury and we saw the beginnings of it with his two touchdowns after Dez went to the locker room. Heath Miller had a strong week with 12.4 points and I think he will continue getting his high volume of targets until Martavis Bryant is back.
Overall, the big games by the cheaper tight ends has pushed their value down. There were more tight end touchdowns last weekend than any other week in NFL history. This is why I want to stick with proven veterans to avoid the one-week wonders.
My All-Value Team
QB: Jameis Winston
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Marshawn Lynch
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Brandon Coleman
WR: Terrance Williams
TE: Jason Witten
K: Josh Brown
D/ST: Baltimore Ravens
I will be using the Forte/Lynch pairing on most of my teams and then splitting them in half between Jones and Brown for my elite receiver. I have Winston projected only slightly lower than Cam Newton, but he is $1,100 cheaper.
I will also be going all-in with Coleman on every team, then adding a split between Williams and Garcon. I will probably pair Williams with Witten to cover my bases in what should be a high-scoring Cowboys/Eagles game.
For my kicker, I like Josh Brown this week. I was at the Cowboys/Giants game and their offense does not look strong in the Red or Grey Zones, which should mean plenty of field goals. For my defense, I like going against the Raiders who will either have a hurt Derek Carr or a bad Matt McGloin.
Once again, the best strategy for using the Weekly Value Based Drafting will be in heads up or double up contests. I will be mix and matching my value plays again in these types of games after finishing last week +$11 off of just risking $20 total. Be sure to check out our weekly RB picks as well.
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