Hopefully everyone made some nice change last week in DFS. Me? Broke even, aside from those gambling rakes. I wish Eli Manning actually did something. I could be sitting on a yacht right now.
This week, with the rash of injuries popping up, the DFS bust pool is looking thinner and thinner. There will be a lot of new names in lineup searches. High upside potential is everywhere. This week will be critical for weeding out the hype.
Last week, I’d give myself a B- for my efforts. Nailed the Russell Wilson call, but whiffed on the Matt Ryan resurgence. Mike Evans performed well against a tough passing defense (with 17 targets) while Randall Cobb put up a DFS bust stinker.
Both Todd Gurley and Theo Riddick were boring, as predicted. Eric Ebron had a TD called back and I high fived myself, though to be fair, I usually do that a few times a day.
So let’s stop wasting time and get down to my Week 3 DFS bust picks.
Week 3 DFS Busts
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams (6,000 DK / 7,600 FD)
With the home opener for the Bucs, one would think Winston would be a sneaky start in DFS. But not me. With Doug Martin on the mend (I don’t like Charles Sims as a starting RB) and Winston’s terrible showing last week, I’m not sure he will be able to overcome the odds against a Rams defense that has only let up one passing TD this year.
I’m looking elsewhere.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Eli Manning (vs WAS), Ryan Tannehill (vs CLE)
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions (7,700 DK / 8,900 FD)
Something just doesn’t look right with Rodgers. Averaging close to 200 yards per game with 3 total TDs on the year. He’s also completing 57% of his passes, which is his first time below 60% since 2006! I know it’s only 2 games, but I believe the offense woes are due to the weakened run game. Or maybe Rodgers is just on the decline.
Similar Cost Alternatives: Ben Roethlisberger (@ PHI), Matt Ryan (@ NO)
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers (5,800 DK / 6,600 FD)
Bell cow? Not a bell cow? Two weeks and two different game plans. His YPC is a meager 3.5 and he hasn’t been involved in the passing game. Sure, he has 3 TDs. Right now, his expected volume at the moment is an unknown.
I think Darren Sproles is heavily relied on against the Steelers as they look to keep Carson Wentz in check, leaving Mathews looking for scraps. Also, I hate how he spells his last name.
Similar Cost Alternative: Latavius Murray (@ TEN)
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals (6,500 DK / 6,700 FD)
Trying a reverse jinx to see if it helps the Bills turn it around. Word on the street is that Sammy Watkins is very doubtful for this week’s game. If he is out? Look for McCoy to be the main focus of the Cardinals defense.
Shady will get his touches, but unless he breaks one, I don’t see him passing 80 total yards with 0 TDs. I’m staying away (though I was never really near) this offense until we see how newly appointed OC Anthony Lynn changes up the offense.
Similar Cost Alternative: Theo Riddick (@ GB), Justin Forsett (@JAX)
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings (7,200 DK / 7,800 FD)
Probably going to regret this one as a DFS bust. Kelvin has been playing at a ridiculous level so far. I expect Mike Zimmer and company to hone in on Benjamin. With a Jonathan Stewart out and no real other threat besides Greg Olsen, he will see tons of attention.
The targets will be there, but the Vikings will do what they can to minimize the damage.
Similar Cost Alternative: Mike Evans (vs LA), Jordy Nelson (vs DET)
Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets (6,000 DK / 7,000 FD)
Plenty of DFS articles are “optimizing” their lineups at his value this week. I like Maclin, but this week I see him with a lower floor than usual. Look, I’m not going to bore you with the Revis Island (or Peninsula, lately) chatter. But he will bore you with 9-12.
People might not consider that a “bust” but I’m looking for much higher of an upside, especially at the flex position where people are starting him.
Similar Cost Alternative: Michael Floyd (@ BUF), Marvin Jones (@ GB)
Jacob Tamme, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (3,200 DK / 5,500 FD)
His surprise production to start the season has everyone baffled. And at this price, people are scooping him up left and right. Not this guy. I see through Tamme’s over-inflated valuation. The Saints have done OK vs the TE this year as well.
Oh, and I’m still mad at him from the giant goose egg he laid in Week 14 in 2012. Why did I start him? Don’t ask.
Similar Cost Alternative: Dennis Pitta (@ JAX)
Minnesota Vikings, at Carolina Panthers (3,100 DK /
The Vikings are off to a strong start, but I’m benching them against the Panthers. Carolina does not turn the ball over and they are one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. I’m not comfortable starting a defense against those odds.
Similar Cost Alternative: New York Jets (@ CAR), Miami Dolphins (vs CLE)
- Week 5 DFS Busts: The Return of Brady? Not Yet. - October 8, 2016
- Week 4 DFS Busts: Your QB/WR Stack Attack is Whack - October 1, 2016
- THAT Fantasy Guy: What’s Wrong With Your Team - September 27, 2016