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Week 3 Hitting Planner: Fresh Off The DL And Turning Things Around

Week 3 Hitting Planner
Photo Credit: Al Case

Before getting into the Week 3 Hitting Planner, let’s go over some injury news.

Padres Center Fielder, Manny Margot, was hit in the ribs against the Rockies and finds himself on the DL.

Nolan Arenando has also been suspended 5 games for his actions in a brawl as a result of the Margot injury.

Catchers’ Travis D’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki are both on the DL for the Mets as well.

Week 3 Hitting Planner

Weather Forecast

Boston, New York City, and Washing D.C. are all expected to see rain on Monday, but storms should not play a major factor in the Week 3 Hitting Planner. Minnesota could see some snow on Wednesday, but overall all week should be much warmer than the last across the states.

Park Factor

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SunTrust Park, in Atlanta, has been getting hot. With an above average Park Factor in every category except triples (PF .278), expect lots of runs as the Braves come home in the Week 3 Hitting Planner.

Kauffman Stadium continues to be a hitters haven. The Royals home park not only sits atop the 2018 Park Factor leaderboards for runs, the stadium had the largest week to week increase in HR PF. Kauffman went form a 0 HR PF last week to a 6 HR PF (best in MLB) this week. Unfortunately, the Royals are away from home in the Week 3 Hitting Planner.

Stolen Base Report

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Saying the Mets have struggled to throw out baserunners would be an understatement. Teams have attempted 13 steals against the Mets so far this season with a 92% success rate. The White Sox are second in stolen bases allowed with 11, but they have also caught five base stealers on the season.

The Tigers and James McCann came back down to earth last week allowing two stolen bases in four attempts. With the slow Orioles coming into town in Week 3, McCann shouldn’t have too many attempted base stealers to worry about.

 

Under-The-Radar- Players

Nick Williams, PHI (at ATL, vs. PIT)

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Nick Williams crushes righties. He’s sporting a 96.2 mph average exit velocity against righties since April 4 and with only two lefties in the Braves and Pirates rotation (Sean Newcomb and Steven Brault respectively), he should continue to excel in his platoon. Brave’s starters allow 1.3 HR/9 versus left-handed batters, which should allow Williams to add to his 2018 home run total in the Week 3 Hitting Planner.

Allowing 35.8% of contact to be fly balls, the Pirates pitching staff sits in the middle of the pack for the MLB, but Citizens Bank Park still has an above average HR PF. As warmer weather moves up the eastern coast, Philadephia could see highs in the mid-60s later in the week, which Williams will welcome as he’s historically played better in the warmer months.

Jed Lowrie, OAK (vs. CHW, vs. BOS)

Only two-second basemen have hit the ball harder than Jed Lowrie over the past ten days (Yoan Moncada and Javier Baez). His past 33 PA resulted in a .448 batting average, three home runs, and nine runs batted in. While he won’t steal you many bases (if at all), Lowrie will produce in every other standard category.

The White Sox continue to sport the leagues worst xFIP as a starting rotation (5.03 xFIP). This should give Lowrie and the Athletics plenty of chances to score runs. The Red Sox starting rotation poses a tougher matchup for the A’s infielder, but they are allowing 40.4% of their contact to be fly balls.

Tim Beckham, BAL (at DET, vs. CLE)

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One of last year’s surprise breakouts, Tim Beckham started the year on the wrong foot. From opening day until April 7, he had a .215 wOBA and a 30 wRC+. Since the April 7, he’s sporting a .326 wOBA with a wRC+ of 107. A 47.1% hard contact rate bodes well for matchups against the worst (DET 42.5% FB%) and seventh worst (CLE 39.2% FB%) starting rotation in terms of allowing fly balls.

Franchy Cordero, SDP (vs. LAD, at ARI)

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With Manny Margot on the DL, Franchy Cordero slid right into the vacancy in center field. Since being activated himself off the DL, Cordero hasn’t made any soft contact. Sporting a 66.7% hard contact rate and a 99.2 mph average EV means his late-week matchup against Arizona might be too tasty to pass up. With a high of 93 degrees, balls will be flying in the hot desert heat of Chase Field in the second half of the Week 3 Hitting Planner.

His near elite Sprint Speed (29.5 ft/sec) should play up in his early-week matchup against the Dodgers. Dodgers backstops have only caught two of nine attempted base stealers. Cordero should produce in every standard Fantasy category in the Week 3 Hitting Planner.

Aaron Hinckley

Aaron Hinckley

An aspiring stay at home dad, Aaron is a graduate of Mercer University who is a self proclaimed analytical nut and master grilled cheese maker.
Aaron Hinckley

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