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Week 4 DFS Strategy : Look to Vegas to Find the Value

Week 4 DFS Strategy
Andy Dalton Photo Credit : Keith Allison

As we cycle our senior writers through the weekly pieces, it is my turn for the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) post. Mark has done a great job, but my take on the Week 4 DFS strategy might look a little different.

The first few weeks of this Fantasy Football season have seen a rash of minor running back injuries. We have seen Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Jay Ajayi and even LeVeon Bell to an extent be mid- to late-week scratches. This led to their primary backups being a solid cheap play for DFS strategy (except you Latavius Murray!!!).

For the Week 4 DFS strategy, we do not have that luxury. Fournette, Cook and Ajayi look to be back in action. Mixon and Bell’s backups have been priced up accordingly. We will have to dig a little deeper to find the value gems in the Week 4 DFS strategy.

I like to look towards Las Vegas. Vegas knows more than anyone when it comes to these games and if you think I am wrong, check out how high those towers are these days. You can get a feel for the game script (how the game will flow) from the spread and over/under set for the game. With the Week 4 DFS strategy, I am going to use Vegas’ numbers to my advantage to find value.

I am going to give you my best lineup for the week along with some other players to consider at each position. For the Week 4 DFS strategy, I am using the prices off of Draft Kings. The information is up-to-date as of September 27th.

Week 4 DFS Strategy

Quarterback

Andy Dalton, $5,400, Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Dalton has multiple touchdown passes in each game this season. He gets the fourth-worst Fantasy Defense against quarterbacks on a fast track in Atlanta, in a game that has the third-highest over/under for the week. I think the Bengals could get behind early (they are nearly a touchdown underdog) and Dalton gets multiple touchdowns and 300 yards again for a cheap price.

Others I Like: Andrew Luck, $5,500; Russell Wilson, $5,600; and Baker Mayfield, $5,300

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott, $7,700, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions

Lamar Miller, $5,000, Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

As bad as the Cowboys’ offense seems, Zeke is tied for the league lead in rushing yards. He is definitely not the problem, as much as Dak-apologists want to think so. Anyway, he gets the struggling Lions’ defense who Matt Patricia has lead to allowing the fourth-most Fantasy Points to running backs so far. In a home game, I think Dallas rides Zeke for over 100 yards easy with a score.

Miller was not great last week, but that changes with a great matchup in Week 4. The Texans get a reprieve with the Colts defense (sixth-worst against running backs) in a game that I think they run away with.

Others I Like: Dion Lewis, $4,400; Phillip Lindsay, $4,500; Chris Carson, $4,600; and Kerryon Johnson, $4,400

Wide Receivers

Jarvis Landry, $7,400, Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders

Sterling Shepard, $4,900, New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

Allen Robinson, $5,900, Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When Tyrod Taylor was throwing Landry the ball last Thursday, he was 1-5 with 12 yards. When Baker Mayfield looked Landry’s way, he was 7-9 for 91 yards. In just a little over a half of football. Mayfield is going to look Landry’s way early and often, and the Raiders are the fifth-worst team against Fantasy wide receivers.

With the highest over/under for the Sunday games, there should be a ton of points scored in the Giants/Saints game. The Saints have given up the most Fantasy Points in the league to opposing wider receivers, especially out of the slot where Shepard was mostly working last week.

Robinson has quickly become Mitch Trubisky’s favorite target. The former Jaguar has 28 targets his way over the first three games. Now he gets a Tampa team that is giving up the third-most Fantasy Points to opposing wide receivers in what should be a decently high scoring game with an over/under of 46.

Others I Like: Quincy Enunwa, $4,300; Tyler Boyd, $4,600; Randall Cobb, $5,100; and Mohamed Sanu, $3,600

Tight End

Austin Hooper, $2,900, Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals

As I already mentioned, there should be a good deal of points scored in this game. Hooper has at least three catches in each game of the young season. The Bengals are giving up the fifth-most points to Fantasy tight ends and with Calvin Ridley’s emergence paired with Julio Jones, the middle of the field should open up for Hooper.

Others I Like: David Njoku, $3,200; Jack Doyle, $3,700; and Ben Watson, $3,300

D/ST

Arizona Cardinals, $2,600, vs. Seattle Seahawks

Either side in this game is fine for your Fantasy Defense as the over/under is set at a meager 37 points as of now. These two teams are 1 and 2 in terms of points allowed to Fantasy Defenses.  Seattle has allowed the most sacks and Arizona has committed the second-most turnovers. I am going with the home team Cardinals because I would rather have that remaining $600 for my Flex starter.

Others I Like: Seattle Seahawks, $3,200; Chicago Bears, $2,600; and Green Bay Packers, $3,500

FLEX

Saquon Barkley, $8,100, New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

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In Weeks 1 and 3, the Giants were in close, hard fought games the whole contests. Barkley rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in those weeks. In Week 2 against Dallas, the New York was behind two scores almost the entire game. Barkley caught 14 or 16 passes thrown his way for 80 yards.

No matter the game script, Barkley has shown that he will put up numbers. What he has not been in though, is a high-scoring shootout. I think we see that with the Saints this week and Barkley will show his full Fantasy potential. He is my top play for the Week 4 DFS Strategy, as I see over 150 total yards, 8 receptions and a couple of scores.


That’s it for the Week 4 DFS Strategy! Hopefully you can use these plays to make some money this weekend!

Michael Tomlin
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Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.
Michael Tomlin
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