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Week 5 DFS picks: Mike Evans Plus GPP Picks

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

The week 5 DFS picks are a little different this week because I am including a player from the Thursday night games.

Between the featured image and the title, I am sure you can guess whom it is. With the suspense gone, let’s jump right to the Week 5 DFS picks.

Obvious Week 5 DFS Cash Game pick

Mike Evans ($7900 DK $8900 FD)

I usually don’t feature players from the Thursday game, but it only helps underscore how much I like Evans this week. Let’s start with the price, since he’s far more attractive on Draft Kings than he is on Fan Duel. On Fan Duel he is very high priced, tied with Odell Beckham for the high salary of the week. Yet I still think he definitely outproduces Beckham. On DK, he’s the fifth highest priced WR and I think he outproduces every one above him. Why am I so confident? For starters, this game is a Thursday night game in Tampa. Last year when Tampa hosted on Thursday night, Evans had his best game of the year hauling in 11 catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Of course that was against the porous Atlanta secondary.

But it’s not like the Patriots secondary is stopping anyone this year either. The Patriots are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to WRs at an average clip of 40 per game. The most generous however is Tampa Bay, which means gameflow should favor the receivers, including Evans, as well. With 32 targets through three games, I expect Evans to be targeted early and often. And oh yeah, Evans happens to be one of the more talented wide receivers in the game. Most of the Patriots secondary is under 6 feet and even their tallest DB is only 6’1. At 6’5, expect Evans to present tons of match-up problems and easily return value on your cash game investment.

Week 5 DFS GPP Pick

Marshawn Lynch ($5100 DK $6100 FD)

There is no surprise Lynch has less than 25 yards receiving. But he has yet to crack the century mark rushing and is coming off just 30 yards rushing combined the last two weeks. That definitely has a beast-like smell, yet one that resembles that of decaying meat. But sniff again. Can you taste the rainbow? I can.

First off, with Derek Carr out, Jack Del Rio is going to lean on his running game a little more. So that means more carries for Lynch. Secondly, people hear the Ravens defense and often think of the run-stuffing defenses of the past. But the loss of Brandon Williams to this team has been understated. The Ravens are currently the 9th most generous run defense and over the last two weeks they are actually giving up more fantasy points to running backs than any other team. Beast Mode will be in full effect.

Draft Kings Week 5 DFS GPP Roster

QB Aaron Rodgers ($8100)

I know I’m going to be making deeper picks later and with no one jumping out as bargain, I’ll take the best bet on the board. He happens to be the most expensive too at $1K more expensive than the next options, which will hopefully drive his ownership down. Dallas is giving up over 20 points to quarterbacks each of the last three weeks. I expect Rodgers to push that number close to 30.

RB Todd Gurley ($8000)

 

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There’s a myth out there that this Seattle team can’t be run upon. They can. With 50% more average DK points than the next closest RB, Gurley will smash that myth this weekend.

RB Lynch ($5100)

See above.

WR Jordy Nelson ($8100)

I’ll take Jordy for the stack thank you.

WR Marqise Lee ($4400)

Last week’s smackdown of Baltimore was about Joe Flacco’s ineptitude, not the Steelers defense. The Pittsburgh secondary can be beat and Lee will do so.

WR Deven Funchess ($5600)

Last week was not a fluke. Detroit’s secondary is nothing special.

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TE: Antonio Gates ($3300)

The Giants stink. The Chargers are having miserable season too, but something tells me that Philip Rivers will find his favorite target in the end zone as this season becomes their last.

Flex Frank Gore ($4400)

It ain’t sexy. But Gore is still getting the bulk of carries and the 49ers run defense stinks. There’s some nice value here.

DST Raiders ($2900)

Earlier in the week I talked about Flacco’s inabilities. The Raiders should get at least three sacks and 1 interception. And that’s the minimum.

Fan Duel Week 5 DFS GPP Roster

I am doubling up on Rodgers ($9500), Jordy Nelson ($8600), Gore($6000) and Lynch ($6100). In general, I’m not loving the pricing on players this week on either site. I like these four players to register a small profit on both sites, but if you think there is better value elsewhere, I encourage you to go that route. That being said, let’s start with a player whose price I like much more on Fan Duel this week than Draft Kings for the rest of my lineup….

WR Davante Parker ($6100)

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On Draft Kings, Parker and his salary is nestled between Bryant and Randall Cobb, making him one of the top ten most expensive options. That sounds a little high, and on Fan Duel, he’s nestled between John Brown and Allen Hurns. Draft Kings has him too high, Fan Duel has him too low. He’s going against Tenneessee’s second most generous defense in giving up fantasy points to WR. That’s an obvious buy situation.

WR Larry Fitzgerald ($6700)

You know who’s right behind Tennessee in giving up fantasy points to wide receivers? Philadelphia. Fitzgerald, like Parker, is overpriced on DraftKings and under-priced on Fan Duel. I’m buying here too.

TE Zach Ertz ($6600)

When he stops putting up double digit Fan Duel points, I’ll stop starting him. Until then, he remains a fixture in my weekly lineup.

DST Eagles ($4600)

Taking both Fitzgerald and the Eagles might seem dumb. I agree that the Eagles might get burned on a few deep passes, but Carson Palmer has become an absolute statue in the pocket. I’d be surprised if the Eagles don’t register at least four sacks this weekend. I’ll take that high floor.

K Greg Zuerlein ($5300)

I was high on Zuerlein before the season began. Since I will still have some salary left over, I’ll  gladly pay for the top kicker this week.

That’s all for this week. Good luck in your week 5 DFS games!

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Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.
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