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Week 6 DFS Strategy: Using What We Have Learned

Week 6 DFS Strategy
Jameis Winston Photo Credit : Keith Allison

Last week I talked about trying to “hit some singles” to go with my big swings in Daily Fantasy Sports. It did not work out completely how I had hoped, so with the Week 6 DFS strategy I am going to combine my last two weeks.

Two weeks ago I talked about following the Las Vegas over/under lines when choosing your DFS players. It worked out extremely well except for a couple of duds. That led to last week’s strategy.

So I thought I would go for the middle with the Week 6 DFS strategy. Instead of trying to “hit home runs and singles” I am going to focus on “doubles and triples” so to say. Notice that every one of my backs and receivers is going for at least $5,000 on Draft Kings. I am also going to utilize one of the highest game totals of the season.

All of the information in the Week 6 DFS strategy is based off of Draft Kings scoring and prices. I am focusing on just the Sunday non-primetime games since it is the most popular slate. The information for the Week 6 DFS strategy is up to date as of October 11th.

Week 6 DFS Strategy

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,800

Heading into our Week 6 DFS strategy, there have been only two games this season with an over/under of 55 points or higher. The current line in the Tampa Bay at Atlanta game is 57.5. It would be the highest for the season if not for the Sunday night tilt between Kansas City and New England.

Nevertheless, I will be stacking this game heavily. With Matt Ryan being the most expensive quarterback, I will choose Winston as my top pick. I think Atlanta will be leading as well, so Winston should have to throw more. Toss in the fact that the Falcons have given up the fourth-most Fantasy Points to quarterbacks and that Jameis is out to prove something, and this feels like the best bet in the Week 6 DFS strategy.

Others I Like: Matt Ryan, $6,800; Cam Newton, $6,100; Philip Rivers, $5,900; and Case Keenum, $5,500

Running Backs

Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons, $5,400

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts, $5,100

As of right now, the likelihood of Devonta Freeman playing Sunday is “in doubt.” So whether I was hammering the Falcons/Bucs game anyway, Coleman is always a strong play with Freeman out. While the Buccaneers have not given up much on the ground, they are giving up seven catches, 82 yards and .5 touchdowns receiving to running backs this year per game.

The Jets have given up the seventh-most catches to opposing running backs and more than 13 receiving Fantasy Points per game to running backs. Marlon Mack is looking to be out again, and Hines has taken a stranglehold on the running back job in Indy. He has increased his touches and yards in each of the last four games. I think he will become a solid Fantasy contributor for the rest of the season, but is still a bargain now.

Others I Like: Ezekiel Elliott, $7,000; Carlos Hyde, $4,900; Javorius Allen, $4,800; and Lamar Miller, $4,700

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,100

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons, $7,900

John Brown, Baltimore Ravens, $5,500

Obviously I was going to go heavy with my receivers in the high-scoring game of the week. The Falcons have given up the most touchdowns to opposing receivers in the league. Mike Evans is the best Red Zone threat on Tampa Bay.

Julio is on the weirdest non-scoring streak that I can ever remember. Jones has not scored a touchdown since they played Tampa Bay the FIRST time last season, almost a calendar year ago. He has just three spikes in his last 21 games. In that stretch, he has 195 targets. That amount of targets with that few touchdowns is just absurd. Regression to the mean is coming. He has scored in seven of his last eleven games against Tampa Bay, with ten scores total over that time frame.

After a scorching-hot start to the season, it looked like Brown was coming back to earth with a sub-10 Fantasy Point outing last week. However, I was more optimistic than ever because of the season-high 14 targets he received. Brown is a receiver averaging nine targets a week with at least three catches in every game. Only 11 other wide receivers can say that for themselves, yet he is the 22nd most expensive receiver on this slate alone.

Others I Like: Robert Woods, $6,900; Calvin Ridley, $6,300; Demaryius Thomas, $5,800; and Robby Anderson, $4,600

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,700

Embed from Getty Images
Over the past two and a half seasons, Cameron Brate is averaging 5.4 targets, 3.74 receptions, 44.96 yards and .51 touchdowns per game that Jameis Winston starts and finishes. That is 11.3 Fantasy Points per game. In all other games, Brate is averaging 2.5 targets, 1 catch, 10 yards and .11 touchdowns, which comes out to 2.9 Fantasy Points per game. Jameis Winston is back this week starting.

Others I Like: Jared Cook, $5,000; Kyle Rudolph, $4,400; and Geoff Swaim, $2,900

Defenses

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins, $3,300

The Dolphins are giving up the second-most Fantasy Points to opposing defenses. The Bears are the top-scoring Fantasy defense in the league. Khalil Mack is unbelievable. Chicago is just the fourth-most expensive unit somehow.

Others I Like: Houston Texans, $3,500; Indianapolis Colts, $2,500; and Buffalo Bills, $2,200

FLEX

Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders, $5,200

“It’s the every-other decade theory, man!” Except in this instance, it is the “every-other week theory” with Amari Cooper. Just look at Cooper’s game log. In games 1,3 and 5 Cooper had less than four Fantasy Points. In games 2 and 4 he had at least 24.6 Fantasy Points. It’s almost as if Jon Gruden looks at the stat sheet and says, “Maaann, we need to get that Amari Cooper the ball more mannn!” (Chucky grimace and eye dart)


That’s it for the Week 6 DFS strategy! Let’s go make some money!

Michael Tomlin
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Michael Tomlin

Michael Tomlin is an ESPY-nominated, former college football player who stays associated with the game through Fantasy Sports. He has been writing his personal blog, Dirkland.blogspot.com, for three years and it focuses on Fantasy Sports, as well as handicapping. He was born and raised in the DFW Metroplex, and he follows all of the Dallas teams, along with Texas Tech athletics and Manchester City F.C.
Michael Tomlin
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