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Week 6 Hitting Planner: All Eyes To The Man On Deck

Week 6 Hitting Planner
Photo Credit: Erik Drost

Let’s start the Week 6 Hitting Planner with some injury news.

Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson has been placed on the 10-day DL, but more on this a little later.

The Twins have also placed catcher Jason Castro on the 10-day DL. Both injuries will lend playing time to young players eager to capitalize in the Week 6 Hitting Planner.

Week 6 Hitting Planner

Weather Forecast

It seems like the heat of summer will be on full blast in the Week 6 Hitting Planner. A heat wave will make its rounds across the U.S. with Phoenix projected to reach highs of 104. There are a few storms being projected to hit in the middle of the week in Minneapolis. Luckily, the Twins hit the road for the Week 6 Hitting Planner. Miami also projects to get some rain towards the end of the week, but with a retractable roof, they will still play.

Park Factor

Need to pick up some home runs? Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati will be your best bet in the Week 6 Hitting Planner. The Reds’ home stadium currently sits atop the 2018 HR Park Factor rankings with 1.817. The next closest HR Park Factor is .309 points worse. The Reds host both the Marlins and the White Sox this week. All three pitching staff give up over 1.04 HR/9.

Progressive Field, home of the Indians, sits second in terms of Runs PF with 1.547. They only have one series in the second half of the Week 6 Hitting Planner. Luckily, the Royals come to town sporting a 4.71 xFIP (2nd worse in the MLB).

Stolen Base Report

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Entering the Week 6 Hitting Planner, the landscape of batteries has not changed much. The Mets still struggle to stop runners advancing having now allowed 29 stolen bases this season. The Marlins catching core and pitching staff lead the MLB in SB with two runs saved already this season. They also lead the MLB in runners caught stealing with 14. They will face the Cubs (29thi n SBs) and Braves (4th in SBs) this week.

The White Sox fall right behind the Marlins in terms of runners caught stealing with 12, but fall on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of stolen bases allowed with 21. The White Sox are also second in terms of bases stolen on offense with 29. They face the Pirates (33% Stolen Base allowed) and the Cubs (30% SBA), so look for the Sox to run ramped on the base paths.

 

Under-The-Radar- Players

Mitch Garver, C, MIN (at STL, vs. LAA)

Since April 26, Twins catcher Mitch Garver ranks 11th among qualified batters in terms of exit velocity with an average EV of 96.3 mph. With the injury to Jason Castro, Garver will take over the full time catching duties. He’s played well in limited playing time (38 PA) with a wRC+ of 101.

His matchup with the Angles could be what puts Garver on the Fantasy Baseball map. The Angles pitching staff surrenders hard contact 36.8% of the time while also allowing 1.02 HR/9. Add Garver’s ability to barrel (14% Barrel%) and lift (21 degree avg launch angle) the ball and all of the lights will be on a potential season-long breakout by the Twins new catcher.

Tyler Naquin, OF, CLE (at TEX, vs SEA)

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Currently, Tyler Naquin handles the strong side of the Indians Right Field platoon. The lanky lefty’s combination of speed and power will be on full display in the Week 6 Hitting Planner with favorable matchups against the Rangers and Mariners. Both pitching staffs sport HR/FB ratios above 14%, but Naquin makes most of his contact on the ground. In fact, over his last 15 PAs, Naquin’s .967 OPS comes without hitting a fly ball.

In the same sample size, he’s split his contact evenly between line drives and ground balls. He makes the most out of his ground balls with his 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed, but with his average launch angle on line drives rising to 12.9 degrees, Naquin could take advantage of this week’s matchup with a small power boost.

Johan Camargo, 3B, ATL (at TB, at MIA)

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With Swanson on the DL, the Braves should hand the keys to the position over to utility man Johan Camargo. Currently slashing .280/.400/.680, Camargo inexplicably hadn’t seen much playing time until Swanson went down.

Now with a major opportunity for playing time, Camargo should continue to mash the ball. His .333 BABIP sits near his career average and supports his .280 batting average. With five total home runs in 66 PA across Triple-A and the MLB, Camargo’s power outage at first seems unsustainable (eight homers in 2017), but upon closer inspection, he’s made an outstanding effort to lift the ball.

In his 2017 MLB action, Camargo only hit 52.4% of his contact in the air (30.9% FB%), but currently, that number has ballooned with his FB% at 58.8% now. Both the Rays and Marlins both surrender over 37.5% of their contact as fly balls, so the Braves interim shortstop should be in for a huge Week 6.

Aaron Hinckley

Aaron Hinckley

An aspiring stay at home dad, Aaron is a graduate of Mercer University who is a self proclaimed analytical nut and master grilled cheese maker.
Aaron Hinckley

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