It was not exactly a stellar showing for yours truly last week. While my record stayed above .500, some of the predictions were so far off that it made it feel much, much worse. Hopefully, I can flip the script like Eminem in my Week 6 Start-Sit predictions.
Whenever you say to sit both the TOP and SECOND-highest scoring quarterbacks, your column is in for a rough day. Thanks to some luck, I had some of my plays squeak past their ranks (or in the case of one player, finish exactly on it) to avoid an awful weekend.
I finished the week with a 9-8-1 record picking players to succeed or fail at their consensus rankings. I did throw in six more “major” wins to boost that category a little bit.
This week I am focusing on a few different games. My brother and I gamble a little bit (ahem) and the reason we have begun kicking ourselves is due to not seeing certain game-flows.
“Rookie quarterback in the first start against a backup quarterback of a mediocre offense without a running back? We should have bet the under!”
“Aaron Rodgers in his favorite stadium (SB Win) against a banged up defense without its best player? We should have bet the over!”
Now we are focusing a little more on over/under where it is less about seeing the trends or advanced statistics and more about common sense on how the game will play out. This can be utilized in Fantasy Football as well.
It seems obvious, but avoid the low-scoring games and buy shares of the high-scoring affairs. Now obviously you won’t sit LeVeon Bell because it might be a low-scoring bout with Baltimore, but for the Week 6 Start-Sit plays I am not giving you the obvious. Now I have selected a few games that I think will either be really high or low scoring to base the majority of the Week 6 Start-Sit predictions on.
As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 6 Start-Sit picks I am 51-34-1 with 33 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and underperforms as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.
So let’s get to the Week 6 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 6 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.
Week 6 Start-Sit
(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 10/12)
Josh McCown, QB, New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (QB19)
New England is still giving up 25% more points to opposing quarterbacks than the second-worst defense. It is as if Bill Belichick took a page out of the Mike Leach handbook. “We might not stop you much, but we just plan to score every time we touch the ball.” There will be opportunity galore for the Jets’ players this week.
Jay Cutler, QB, Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (QB29)
Just to show you how much no one believes in Cutler: there are only 28 teams playing this weekend due to byes. So at this point, Cutler is ranked behind a quarterback not even starting. This should be an easy win, but I will make the gut call that Cutler has his best day as a Dolphin yet (it’s not like it will be hard to top).
Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers (RB27)
Thompson has fallen off of everyone’s radar due to a bad week against Kansas City and a bye week. Now that everyone is in agreement that the Chiefs look like the best team in the league, that game does not seem so bad. Let us not forget he was averaging almost 25 PPR points per game the first three games of the year. Speaking of the number three, that is the number of the week for the 49ers’ defense. They have given up the third most Fantasy Points to opposing running backs, the third most
Speaking of the number three, that is the number of the week for the 49ers’ defense. They have given up the third most Fantasy Points to opposing running backs, the third most catches to running backs and the third most yards to opposing running backs. He is my top start for the Week 6 Start-Sit predictions.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (RB32)
— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2017
Again, a back that has his stats skewed by playing the Chiefs. Outside of that weird, zero-carry outing, Blount has been a model of consistency, volume-wise. He has at least 12 carries in every other game and at least 67 yards in his last three. He has a high floor and should slide safely in your RB2 or Flex spot.
Matt Breida, RB, San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (RB41)
Kyle Shanahan has used the dreaded “hot hand” term describing his backfield recently. I usually feel that that means the coach wants to use the back-up more but is needing an on-field reason. Look for Breida to provide that reason against Washington.
Jermaine Kearse/Robby Anderson, WR’s, New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (WR33/47)
The Patriots have given up almost 1,000 yards already to opposing wide receivers. Someone has to catch the ball wide open for the Jets so I’m banking on these two to both have solid games.
Jaron Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WR42)
It was just a bad game flow/script for Brown last week, as the Cardinals could never get in a rhythm. Arizona is a different offense at home, and in his two home games this year Brown has put up 10.7 and 18.5 PPR Points.
Should Kirk Cousins have even been throwing to Josh Doctson late against the Chiefs?
Someone says nohttps://t.co/Qe5H8HwfXC
— NBC Sports Redskins (@NBCSRedskins) October 4, 2017
Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers (WR61)
With the extra week of preparation and healing, I think the former Frog breaks out. I know, he “dropped” the game-winner against Kansas City, but I still think it was a tough play. It also shows Cousins’ confidence in him.
A.J. Derby/Virgil Green, TE’s, Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants (TE19/37)
The Giants have given up the second most catches, the most yards, the most touchdowns and the most Fantasy Points to opposing tight ends. Both of these Bronco tight ends should be useful in deep leagues.
Green Bay Packers D/ST at Minnesota Vikings (DST14)
Somehow the Sam Bradford/Case Keenum combo has yet to throw an interception this season. I think that changes this week. More importantly, if Bradford tries to play, there will be sacks galore due to his statuesque mobility right now.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (QB2)
When Rodgers plays at Minnesota he is not the same player. In the past four trips to Minneapolis, Rodgers has failed to throw for 300 yards or 3 touchdowns. In fact, since Mike Zimmer was hired as the head coach of the Vikings, Rodgers has not cracked 215 yards passing at Minnesota. His average Fantasy output throwing the ball in that time frame: 14.45 points per game.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (RB15)
Martin had a great debut last week with 15.2 PPR Point against New England. Keywords there are “against New England” who has been a sieve on defense. Arizona is much tougher against the run, giving up the fourth-fewest Fantasy Points to opposing running backs.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (RB20)
I think we saw McKinnon’s best game last week against a banged-up Bears’ defense. It will be tougher sledding against a pretty good Packers’ front.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (WR7)
If it feels like I’m picking on certain offenses, I kind of am. Evans has seen his production basically decrease each game this season. Now, he gets arguably the best corner in the game, Patrick Peterson. You probably do not have many better options, but I would stay away from Evans in DFS for sure.
— The Players’ Tribune (@PlayersTribune) October 12, 2017
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (WR17)
Look, I am a huge Thielen fan. I own him in many leagues. But I am not going to go around and act like he is a Top-20 option! Even in a heavy week of byes, he is closer to a WR3/Flex option. I mean he has not even scored a touchdown this season and hasn’t cracked 100 yards since Week 1. He is a solid, high floor/low-ceiling part of your lineup, but not a high-end WR2.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers (TE6)
The one part of this game I do not like is the tight end defense of San Francisco. They are giving up the fewest points in the league against opposing tight ends, with only 107 yards in five games. Reed has not found the end zone nor has he cracked 50 yards in a game yet this season. He is a non-starter until he proves he is 100%.
Thanks for checking out the Week 6 Start-Sit predictions! For any other questions, please hit me up on Twitter, @Tomlin3 !
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