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We’re trying something a little different for the week 7 Fantasy Football stock watch because we are getting tons of questions about what is happening with Jacksonville.

One export out of Jacksonville was the band Limp Bitzkit. But the way Jacksonville Jaguar players have been performing this year for their Fantasy owners, it is leaving their teams limp and looking like some other kind of biscuit.

Fortunately for the Jags, the team has won their last two games, but getting off to a miserable 0-3 start did not do much to delight their fans. Plus, despite some juicy match-ups, many JAX Fantasy Football players are still not producing.

Some might point to the defensive side of the ball. The JAX defense was supposedly revamped. Despite giving up only the eighth most yards per game, JAX is currently still in the bottom half of the league in giving up points. So once again, Blake Bortles and company seem to be playing catch-up. Could it be something else?

A regression of course was obviously expected after players like Allen Robinson and Bortles made “the leap.” But it’s one thing to regress back. It’s another to plummet below sea-level. Let’s look at the stock of some of these players and determine whether they are worth buying, selling, or holding, starting with one of the lowest ranked skill players on the team, Julius Thomas.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Stock Report

Tight End

Julius Thomas

It seems like it has been a long time since these days, doesn’t it?

 

Thomas got off to a good start this season when he caught five passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. The following week he didn’t score, but still caught four passes for 71 yards. So what happened since then? Thomas missed the Colts game, had a bye, and played Baltimore and Chicago, neither of which give up a lot of points to TEs.

I would actually try and buy Thomas if you can as his stock is incredibly low right now. Thomas scored nearly a touchdown every other game last year. And given that Oakland gives up the sixth most Fantasy points to TEs, don’t be surprised if he gets back on track this week.

Others however might not be so lucky….

Wide Receiver

Allen Hurns

 

Hurns has failed miserably so far to match his 1,000-plus yard 10-TD season he had last year. Hurns is way behind pace on both stats and just on pace to meet his reception total from last year.

The good news is that Hurns is on pace to exceed his target total from last year. However, that would be the optimistic view. The cynic in me questions why hasn’t he done more if he’s getting more targets.

If you can get another WR3 for Hurns, I would sell him as quickly as you can. Of course we need to talk about the other Allen too…

Allen Robinson

 

Robinson’s stock is slowly trending downward, just like his weekly yardage totals. Those owners that drafted him in the first round can probably relate to the picture above as Robinson and their playoff chances seem to be going up in smoke.

But should Robinson owners really start a “fire sale”?

The answer is flat out no. Robinson had a field day against Baltimore in Week 3 as he easily topped 20 points when he caught seven passes including two touchdowns. The talent is still there and Robinson owners should expect a rebound, especially if Blake Bortles can improve a little bit. Speaking of Blake…

Quarterback

Blake Bortles

One thing Blake Bortles was able to do last year quite well was finish….

 

However, many have said his second half performances seem lacking compared to last year. And if you look at the chart of second half stats below, they’re correct!

 2nd half stat 2016 2015
Rating 87.4 97.5
Yds/Attempt 6.8 7.7
1st % 31.6 36.3

However, if we dig deeper and split it out by quarter, there is only a slight difference between the fourth quarter play of Bortles this year versus last. The significant difference is really in the first quarter:

1Q Stats 2016 2015
Rating 39.1 85.1
Yds/Attempt 5.5 7.6
1st % 25.8 33.1

Of course the inability to find any kind of sustained success in the first quarter is what is putting Bortles and Jacksonville in a hole. Should Bortles somehow be able to improve first quarter stats, I would expect his numbers to greatly improve.

Additionally, the Jags opponent this weekend is Oakland. Oakland has given up over 312 yards passing per game, more than any other team. Don’t be surprised to see Bortles top 300 yards this weekend.

Oakland has also given up the eighth most Fantasy points to RBs, which brings us to the muck that is the Jaguars backfield.

Running Back

T.J. Yeldon

 

The kind of volatility Yeldon has displayed is one that drives brokers and Fantasy owners mad.

Yeldon, thought to be the lesser of the two Jacksonville backs, had a strong first week. He carried the rock 21 times, including over the stripe and also caught four passes. The following two weeks totaled he couldn’t even muster a 70-yard combined yardage total. Of course the following week he came back strong topping 117 combined yards. And then last week after the Jacksonville OC said that Yeldon had “taken ownership” of the role of the Jags No. 1 back, he got out-touched by Ivory 13-7 and provided his owners with just 26 yards of offense.

What is a Yeldon owner to do? Well, “if in doubt, check the pedigree out.”

In his three years at power house Alabama, he had over 3,800 yards from scrimmage and nearly 40 TDs. That’s good enough for me. I’m not necessarily buying or even starting Yeldon. But he is an absolute “Hold.”

Which brings us to Ivory and his “hold” on the Jaguars backfield…

Chris Ivory

Let’s cut through the dirt (ha-ha): Unlike this woman, his owners are not getting a “good feeling with Ivory.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lp9KcB2zisY

 

Unintentional comedy aside, what Ivory has done this year is no laughing matter. He missed the first two games of the season due to injury. Not exactly shocking given that Ivory has averaged under a dozen games a season during his six year career. And yes, he got the TD last week. But through three games he’s averaging all of 25 yards a game. And given that he has not carried the ball more than a dozen times, his 2.4 YPC average is not going to cut it.

It’s almost dirty dumping Ivory on anyone. But talk up the snap difference mentioned above and sell Ivory as quickly as you can. Even if he matches his previous season high of seven rushing touchdowns, is that really something on which you’re willing to bank? Sell.

Done reading about falling and rising player values? Looking for something else? Maybe try My Playbook to figure out who is going to pop or drop next.

Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg

Mark Strausberg remembers making Jerry Rice his first round selection as well as taking a flyer on a young pitcher named Doug Drabek. His Fantasy analysis has spanned multiple sports including football, baseball, basketball, and even golf. A FSWA finalist, his fantasy analysis has been featured in various outlets including but not limited to SI.com, USA Today national magazines, Yahoo! and RotoExperts.
Mark Strausberg

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