Week 7 Hitting Planner: How Gamel Got His Groove Back

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Let’s start the Week 7 Hitting Planner with a bit of roster news.

The Padres have recalled Cory Spangenberg from Triple-A and subsequently designated Chase Headly. Hopefully, Spangenberg doesn’t eat into the upstart Christian Villanueva. The Padres overall have a very interesting team to watch in terms of Fantasy success. Keep your eye on Francy Cordero who has an insane mix of power and speed.

Week 7 Hitting Planner

Weather Forecast

Meteorologists project Cincinnati, Chicago, and Detroit to see a lot of rain early in the Week 7 Hitting Planner. The rain should only affect Tigers vs Mariners series early in the week. Those rainstorms project to move southeast to D.C., Atlanta, and Tampa later in the week. New York and Boston may also see some rain, but the Atlanta and the Florida teams look to be getting the worst of the rain in the Week 7 Hitting Planner.

Park Factor

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Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati will still provide that home run thunder for the Week 7 Hitting Planner. The Reds home stadium continues to top the list in HR PF according to ESPN. Since 2010, GABP has only finished outside of the Top 5 in HR PF twice (8th 2010, 7th 2015).

Chase Field in Arizona accompanied GABP for many years atop the HR PF leaderboards, but since the introduction of the humidor in 2018, the stadium seems larger. Not many balls have left the yard and the PF’s show it. The Diamondbacks home field currently plays like a pitchers park being sup 1.00 in all but 3B PF (3.281 3B PF). This pales in comparison to the end of 2017 where the Dbacks finished above average in every category.

Stolen Base Report

With 16 runners caught stealing, the Nationals’ catchers and pitchers keep opposing runnings games in check with a 44% caught stealing rate. Their matchup in the Week 7 Hitting Planner brings the Dodgers and Yankees in town. Neither team swipes many bags, and they both don’t throw many runners out.

Combined, the Dodgers and Yankees have caught 11 runners stealings. 34 runners successfully stole a base on either team this season. That equates to a 24% caught stealing rate. This means the Week 7 Hitting Planner will see the Nationals add to their league-leading 34 stolen bases as a team.

 

Under-The-Radar- Players

Jesus Aguilar, MIL (at ARI, at MIN)

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Hulking Brewers’ first baseman, Jesus Aguilar, crushes the ball. His last 68 PA resulted in a .351/.412/.544 slash with two home runs and 11 runs batted in. He’s cooled off in terms of BA over his last 20 PA, but Aguilar keeps finding himself on-base (.450 OBP).

In the same time span, Jesus Aguilar has lifted his average launch angle to 20 degrees with an average exit velocity of 93.8 mph. With the Twins Pitchers surrendering 36.4% of their contact as hard contact, the second half matchup looks stronger for Aguilar owners, but historically, he’s dismantled the Cardinals. Currently only surrendering 34.3% hard contact, the Cardinals pitching staff gets stingy at times as evident by their 3.36 ERA. Yes, it might be a tough matchup, but over the past three years, Aguilar has rocked the Cardinals with a 165 wRC+ and five home runs.

Ben Gamel, SEA (vs. TEX, vs. DET)

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Owner of some of the best hair in the MLB, Mariners outfielder, Ben Gamel, enters the Week 7 Hitting Planner hot. His last 20 PA resulted in a .333 BA without any power numbers (0 ISO). He has two extra-base hits on the season (a double and a triple) as compared to the 11 home runs he hit last year. In the Mariners’ lineup, a gap hitter like Gamel has a chance to score a lot of run in the Week 7 Hitting Planner.

With the Tigers pitching staff surrender 60.7% of their contact in the air, Gamel has a chance to add to those power numbers. In the same time span, his average exit velocity rose to 91.8 mph on balls in the air (line drives and fly balls). Looking at that same type of contact, a -.117 wOBA-xwOBA denotes a bit of unluckiness. He’s hit five balls in the air over 90 mph in the same time span resulting in a 0 BA. The long-haired outfielder should provide lots of runs and RBI in the Week 7 Hitting Planner.