Before getting to my Week 7 Start or Sit options, last week I hit on a couple of big wins. Cole Beasley ended up as a Top-7 receiver. Carlos Hyde, Eddie Lacy and Derek Carr all disappointed.
There were definitely misses as well though. Delanie Walker, I am looking staright at you.
Overall, it was a solid 7-6 week with 4 major wins. For my Week 7 Start or Sit, I am focusing on the “Thunder” portion from a couple of Thunder/Lightning dual backfields.
What I mean is the time shares involving a pass-catching quicker back compared to the road-grading bigger back. What I have started to realize is that predicted game-flow and scoring outcome can help decide which of these backs will have the better day.
As always, if a guy outperforms his ranking as a Start, then it’s a win. If he does so as a Sit, then it’s a loss. Vice versa for the under-performing. If someone outperforms/under-performs their ranking by 12 or more spots, it will be a Major Win. By these metrics, my Start or Sit predictions are 36-26-1 for the year, with 24 Major Wins.
Once again, for our Week 7 Start or Sit purposes I am going to focus on guys that are ranked outside of the Top 24 RB/WRs and Top 10 QB/TEs for my “starts,” and inside the Top 20 RB/WRs and Top 8 QB/TEs for my “sits.”
Week 7 Start or Sit
(All consensus rankings are based off of our Staff PPR rankings for each position.)
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Oakland Raiders (QB12)
While Blake Bortles has not exactly had a strong start to the season, I can see him breaking out this week. Oakland has given up the most passing yards in the league this season and I can see this game turning into a shootout.
Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints (QB15)
New Orleans has given up 319 yards or more in every game but their blowout loss to Atlanta. The Chiefs got a big win last week at Oakland and I think they are about to get on a roll.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (RB28)
I wrote in my Week 7 Running Back Rankings Reaction post that I think this is a Jeremy Hill week for the Bengals. Cincinnati should get ahead of Cleveland and pound the ball against them.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (RB27)
On the other side of the field, I have Crowell getting back into the groove this week. Ezekiel Elliott and James White have shown that the Bengals will give up Fantasy Points to running backs. Although Duke Johnson had more production last week, Cleveland will try to get Crowell going again this Sunday.
Quincy Enunwa, WR, New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens (WR41)
With Geno Smith starting and Eric Decker out, the overwhelming consensus is that Brandon Marshall will get a ton of targets. Don’t you think Baltimore is thinking that as well? The thing is, there will be points to be had against the Ravens who are giving up the second most Fantasy Points to opposing wide receivers and got absolutely torched by Odell Beckham Jr. last week. I think Enunwa is the beneficiary of the attention Marshall will draw.
Kenny Britt is heating up 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KUVKNZzeHD
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 18, 2016
Kenny Britt, WR, Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants (WR34)
Fun fact: the only players with 30-plus catches and at least four receptions in every game are Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Demaryius Thomas… and Kenny Britt. He also has at least 67 yards in all but one game and is starting to find the end zone. He is a must-start for the time being.
Adam Humphries, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers (WR58)
Vincent Jackson is now out for the season and it looks like Tampa will be without both their top backs as well. Mike Evans is sure to draw the majority of attention from the 49ers’ defense. San Francisco has also given up the second most receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers this season.
Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (TE16)
Dwayne Allen is questionable for this weekend. Even if he plays, he will probably be somewhat limited. Doyle is on pace for almost 160 Fantasy Points or 10 points per game. That would have been a Top-10 option at the position last season.
Baltimore Ravens DST vs. New York Jets (DST10)
The Ravens Defense is available in the majority of leagues and you get to face Geno Smith this week. Pick them up if you are a streamer.
Brian Hoyer > Aaron Rodgers?
Here’s what the numbers say.
— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2016
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (QB7)
I have Rodgers outside of my Top 12 for the first time since I have ever ranked players. There is something off about him: whether it’s an undisclosed injury or personal matter, it is affecting his play. Combine that with a short week against a deceivingly good Bears pass defense, and I am sitting Rodgers if I have a better option.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (RB18)
After stringing together a few strong outings, Bernard is ranked as high as 14th by a couple of our rankers. As I already pointed out, I think he takes a step back and Jeremy Hill takes the reins against Cleveland.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles (RB20)
McKinnon has yet to crack 46 yards rushing or 11 yards receiving in a game. He also has just one touchdown. Philadelphia’s rush defense is in the top quarter of the league. At what point does this make him a starting worthy player?
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (WR20)
Edelman has just one game above 75 yards and not a single 80-yard performance. He has yet to catch a touchdown and has just 65 yards in the two games with Tom Brady, combined. I think there might be too many mouths to feed for the diminutive former quarterback to be a consistent starter anymore.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles (TE8)
Philadelphia has given up just eight catches for 93 yards to tight ends all season. Rudolph did not have a strong showing his last time out with just two catches and 15 yards as Sam Bradford gets more and more comfortable with the full offense.
That’s it for your Week 7 Start or Sit plays! If you have any lineup questions, shoot them to us on Twitter @Tomlin3 or @SoCalledFanEx.
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