Consistency is becoming king in Fantasy Football, especially when deciding between comparable players to either start or sit. For the Week 7 Start-Sit predictions, I am focusing on players that I think have repeatable, consistent performances and those that are fool’s gold.
While it is impossible to truly know which players will consistently perform at a high level, we can use the match-up, game flow and previous performance to speculate who will and will not keep their reliable scoring.
What I am really getting at, is we have to figure out which players are receiving knee-jerk reactions on their rankings and which ones are the real deal. Take the names off the players and look at numbers and facts. A 32-year old running back that has not had 100 yards in back-to-back games since November of 2015 is now being ranked as a RB2.
What about a 25-year old back that has multiple catches in 26 or his last 28 games and had 14 catches, 139 yards and three touchdowns the last time he played his opponent this week? Which player would you want in your lineup?
I finished the week with a 12-6 record picking players to succeed or fail at their consensus rankings. I did throw in seven more “major” wins to boost that category a little bit.
While the Aaron Rodgers’ win could be seen due to his injury, I also would have had a major win on sitting Mike Evans if not for Patrick Peterson’s injury. It definitely goes both ways.
As always I am keeping track of my predictions. Going into the Week 7 Start-Sit picks I am 63-40-1 with 40 major wins. Just a reminder, a “win” is correctly picking a start that out-performs his rankings and under-performs as a sit. A “loss” is the opposite happening. A major win is when a guy over- or under-performs by 12 or more spots.
So let’s get to the Week 7 Start-Sit plays. For our Week 7 Start-Sit projections, I am going to focus on guys ranked outside of the Top-24 RB/WRs and Top-10 QB/TEs for my Starts. I will focus on guys inside the Top-20 RB/WRs and Top-8 QB/TEs for my Sits.
Week 7 Start-Sit
(All rankings based off of the Fantasy Pros consensus PPR rankings as of 10/19)
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (QB13)
Taylor has had a less than stellar start to the season as he has yet to crack 19 Fantasy Points in a game. However, I think coming off of a bye week, Taylor will finally break out. Carson Palmer torched the Buccaneers last weekend. With a second long trip in a row, Tampa will be on fumes.
— Michael Vick (@MichaelVick) October 18, 2017
Brett Hundley, QB, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints (QB18)
Let’s pour one out all of my fellow Aaron Rodgers owners. Hundley was not good last week. But with a week getting the starter’s reps, against the Saints at home, Hundley is a quality streaming option this week.
James White, RB, New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons (RB25)
I mean, do you not remember the Super Bowl last year? White should have been the MVP but people got too excited to honor Tom Brady even more.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (RB32)
DeMarco Murray is dealing with a hamstring issue, and as we saw last week Derrick Henry is the finisher for the Titans offense. So in a game that will more than likely see the Titans running the clock out, Henry will have value whether Murray plays or not.
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints (WR35)
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 19, 2017
Hundley will more than likely take the safer throws Sunday, meaning Cobb will be his security blanket. New Orleans has been better on pass defense this year, but is still giving up the sixth most points per game to opposing receivers.
Taylor Gabriel, WR, Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (WR37)
Mohamed Sanu is possibly out again this week, and if he is then I want Gabriel in my lineup. The Patriots have given up the third most catches and the most yards to opposing wide receivers.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks (WR55)
Shepard has become extremely under-valued, even so far as getting dropped in a couple of my leagues. Sneaky fact of the week: Seattle has not been good at all against wide receivers on the road. They are giving up 38.1 PPR Fantasy Points a game to wide receivers on the road, and just 16.6 points at home. If Shepard plays and is healthy, he is the best Week 7 Start-Sit play.
Sterling Shepard practicing again Thursday https://t.co/AfGXbXKESb
— Rotoworld Football (@Rotoworld_FB) October 19, 2017
Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (TE14)
Once again, do we remember the Super Bowl? Hooper had his coming out party in The Big Game last year. The Patriots have given up a score to a tight end in all but one game this year, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins really had two last week. Hooper has at least five catches in consecutive games and I think he makes it three.
Tyler Kroft, TE, Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (TE19)
Since Bill Lazor took over for Ken Zampese as the OC and play caller for Cincinnati, the Bengals have been a completely different offense. This offense is closer to the previous version that saw Tyler Eifert lead the league in touchdowns per game. Kroft gets to take over in his spot for the rest of the year and is definitely a starter going forward in Fantasy.
Dallas Cowboys D/ST at San Francisco 49ers (DST21)
A rookie, in his first start, against a team coming off of a bye week. People are giving C.J. Beathard some praise for almost bringing the 49ers back last week after a three-score deficit. If you really go beyond the numbers, Beathard had about 3-4 other throws that should have been interceptions but were just dropped. I like the Cowboys’ defensive line (now fully un-suspended) to rock Beathard all day long.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (QB6)
Cousins had a monster game last week, leading all quarterbacks in scoring. Yet, Cousins has yet to put together back-to-back solid games this year, failing to pass for 240 yards or more in two straight. This feels like it will be a closer, low-scoring game, leaving Cousins’ ranking too high.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (RB17)
Martin has started his season strong scoring in both of the games he has played with more than 15 PPR Points in each. The Bills provide a different test, as they have given up just 387 rushing yards this season, and just three total touchdowns to running backs.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (RB20)
Adrian Peterson is back to his old self in AZ. pic.twitter.com/sZ1Vq5ne6L
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 15, 2017
Yes, AP looked like the old player he was five years ago in his explosive 134-yard outing last week. Can the 32-year old do it in consecutive weeks with a trip across the Atlantic Ocean in between? Peterson is not going to get 26 carries every week. I think that number will slip down to the 12-15 range. He is definitely not going to be involved in the passing game, as even with Andre Ellington being transparent, Peterson saw zero targets. And I know, the Rams have given up the most points to opposing running backs this year. I just think we are knee-jerking too hard on Peterson, and he needs to prove he can perform consistently.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (WR17)
While Allen is probably still start-able, he is not going to be a high-end WR2. The Broncos only gave up two catches for 22 yards to receivers last week. I know the Giants are banged up at that spot, but that is still ridiculous. I think Rivers slows down on the force-feeding of Allen, and utilizes the rookie Mike Williams a little more.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins (WR18)
Jeffery has had one good game this year against Kansas City. Besides that, he has not cracked 12 PPR Fantasy Points in any another game. His name is carrying his ranking, as Carson Wentz has really become adept at spreading the ball around. Jeffery is touchdown dependent, which is too inconsistent for me.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (TE6)
ASJ has scored in back-to-back games, and really should have three touchdowns over that time frame. The Dolphins have given up just two touchdowns to tight ends this season. The thing with ASJ is within the Jets’ offense he is not going to get you 100 yards. You need him to score. Once again, touchdown dependency is too inconsistent for me.
That’s it for the Week 7 Start-Sit plays! Let me know if you have any other decisions on Twitter, @Tomlin3
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