Connect with us

These 2016 Colorado Rockies projections and notes are a part of a series that we’ll be running throughout the month of January and updating right up until Opening Day. You can see all the MLB Team Projections that have been completed or you can use the links at the bottom of this article to go to specific teams.

As far as the team projections go, the Rockies may be one of the most difficult teams. Their entire outfield is on the trading block, meaning I may have to completely overhaul their outlooks. They have players at second and third who had breakout years, but may not be able to repeat. They have a shortstop who may or may not face a suspension for domestic violence, and it looks like they’ll be using a platoon at first base.

Don’t even get me started about trying to project their pitching staff. I’m not sure there’s even a reason to look at their starters. And just to add to the mess, their best closer won’t be back until around the All-Star Break after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

One caveat on all of my 2016 Colorado Rockies projections, as well as all the other teams, is that these are focused only on Fantasy. If a player won’t have value at least in a 12-team NL-only league, you won’t find them here.

On a similar note, my initial projections mostly targets players with clear-cut roles. On the Rockies those clear-cut roles may change quite a bit before the season gets underway. As roles become more clear in Spring Training I’ll add more reserve players and potential minor league call-ups. Enough of my delaying. Let’s get on to the 2016 Colorado Rockies projections. I typed them in pencil, so you might want to check back as Spring Training nears.

2016 Colorado Rockies Projections: Hitters

Pos.
Player
G
AB
H
2B
3B
HR
R
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AVG
OBP
C
Nick Hundley
126
435
123
23
1
13
55
47
26
93
3
.282
.323
1B
Ben Paulsen
128
422
107
22
4
15
54
60
32
123
2
.254
.308
2B
DJ LeMahieu
146
570
151
20
4
5
76
54
39
112
16
.265
.312
3B
Nolan Arenado
155
625
184
42
4
35
93
115
40
118
1
.294
.337
SS
Jose Reyes
100
420
119
22
1
7
59
41
27
54
16
.283
.327
LF
Corey Dickerson
138
528
158
33
5
27
78
80
40
120
2
.300
.347
CF
Charlie Blackmon
155
615
180
31
6
18
90
65
49
108
31
.293
.354
RF
Carlos Gonzalez
128
477
134
25
2
30
73
79
42
121
2
.282
.338
RES
Mark Reynolds
104
269
69
11
0
14
34
38
33
86
2
.258
.344
RES
Cristhian Adames
78
288
75
12
2
3
31
23
19
55
5
.259
.306

Notes on Rockies Hitters for 2016:

  • No one noticed what Nick Hundley did last year and I doubt anyone will be targeting him this year. That’s a bit of a mistake, as Hundley looks to be in line for career-high playing time, and certainly loves hitting in Coors (.335 Home BA). I wouldn’t expect another .300 season from Hundley, but Coors will keep the average a plus and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 15 or more homers. It’s not a sexy pick, but he makes a very nice second catcher in mixed leagues.
  • Ben Paulsen is a decent hitter. Coors Field makes him  a little more than that. He’ll likely be in a platoon with Mark Reynolds in 2016 and that’s a good thing, as he hit just .235 against lefties. Paulsen is not much more than an injury fill-in or utility slot filler in mixed leagues, but he makes for a nice corner option in NL-only formats.
  • DJ Lemahieu was a nice little bargain in 2015; a bargain that I’m staying away from this year. His .301 batting average was bolstered by a .362 BABIP, so his one real strength is very likely to fall back. The .265 I have him projected for is probably his floor as long as he’s in Colorado, but even with a better average, there’s not much more to him. He did steal 23 bases last year, but he stole just 10 in 2014 in one less game. Lemahieu also seems to be the darling of many in the industry. Feel free to enjoy his scrappy play, but he won’t be helping your mixed league teams much at all.
  • The 42 HRs Nolan Arenado hit in 2015 didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, but many people thought he topped out as a 30-homer type. The good news is that 22 of his homers came on the road. I’m not sure Arenado can replicate last season, but his 14.6% strikeout rate means a collapse is unlikely. Third Base is deeper in elite players than it has been for awhile, but Arenado has a legitimate claim to one of the top few slots.
  • How many games will Jose Reyes play in 2016? Your guess is as good as mine. The possibility of a suspension is looming, and he also typically makes at least one trip to the 15-day DL each year. Though his career numbers in Coors are unimpressive, you’ll mostly be happy with Reyes when he takes the field. Consider the above projection a guess. Hopefully we’ll know more about his legal situation before draft day comes.
  • Hopefully the injuries that derailed Corey Dickerson‘s 2015 season have erased him from the memories of many Fantasy owners. He gets lost in the Carlos Gonzalez hype and the consecutive solid seasons put up by Charlie Blackmon, but Dickerson has some pretty nice upside of his own. His struggles against lefties may limit his upside to the 25-28 HR mark, but he’ll also hit for a nice average and score plenty of runs… if he can stay healthy.
  • If you expected Charlie Blackmon to fizzle out after his breakout 2014 campaign, you missed out on a nice year. The 43 steals may be tough to match, but otherwise, there’s no reason to expect any sort of major drop-off from Blackmon… unless he gets traded out of Coors. If that happens feel free to save him for only the deepest formats, as Blackmon is a career .241 hitter outside of Coors.
  • Carlos Gonzalez has as wide a spectrum of possible projections as any player in baseball. Between all the injuries and the possibility of a trade, it’s hard to know just what to expect. One thing that is clear is that his days of stealing more than a handful of bases are done. Even if he stays in Colorado, he may be overrated at this point.
  • I love Mark Reynolds for NL-only leagues in 2016. Coors will mask many of his flaws, and it looks like the vast majority of his at-bats will come against lefties. Reynolds platoon splits are pretty much neutral, but I still think this very clear role plays right into his strengths.
  • There’s not a whole lot of upside to Cristhian Adames, but if he gets full-time at-bats double-digit steals and homers is possible. Unless we hear more on Reyes, I’m not drafting Adames in mixed leagues, but would be interested in NL-only leagues.

2016 Colorado Rockies Projections: Pitchers

Pitcher
G
GS
QS
IP
W
L
ERA
WHIP
SV
HLD
H
SO
BB
K/9
BB/9
Jorge de la Rosa
30
30
15
165.0
8
12
4.45
1.45
0
0
170
132
70
7.20
3.80
Chad Bettis
28
28
15
165.2
10
11
4.07
1.41
0
0
174
138
58
7.50
3.18
Jordan Lyles
25
25
11
127.5
6
10
4.85
1.73
0
0
170
85
50
6.00
3.56
Jonathan Gray
30
30
17
165.0
9
11
3.98
1.35
0
0
167
161
56
8.80
3.05
Jason Motte
60
0
0
57.0
3
5
4.21
1.37
25
6
61
44
17
7.00
2.75
Adam Ottavino
24
0
0
23.5
1
2
3.62
1.24
4
6
23
24
6
9.20
2.30

 

Notes on Rockies Pitchers for 2016:

  • Feel free to try and squeeze some wins out of Jorge de la Rosa, but it’s a dangerous game. Though his career home and away ERS are similar, he did post an away ERA almost two full runs less in 2015. Pitching him on the road in NL-only formats is likely as far as I go with De La Rose.
  • Jonathan Gray is the only Rockies starter I’d even consider for mixed league duties, and he still has plenty to prove. Anything more than a reserve slot is probably reaching.
  • In many seasons the Rockies closer is the only pitcher of Fantasy relevance. Even that’s no sure thing this season. Jason Motte seems to be the primary option to close at the start of the season. When he’s 100 percent he can succeed anywhere, but there always seems to be one ailment or another limiting his success. He’ll work as a third closer early in the year, just be quick with the hook if things aren’t working.
  • Adam Ottavino looked like the long term answer in the Colorado bullpen, but Tommy John paid him a visit. He’s expected back around the All-Star break. He’ll likely get at least part of the closer gig back in short order, but may not be able to pitch on back-to-back days. If you have the reserve roster space he’s draftable, but in many leagues he may be just a mid-season waiver wire option.

Those are the 2016 Colorado Rockies Projections.  Disagree with the numbers? Is there another player you think needs to be included? Let me know about it in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

2016 MLB Projections By Team

NL WEST
NL CENTRAL
NL EAST
LAD
SD
SF
CHC
CIN
MIL
PIT
STL
ATL
MIA
NYM
PHI
WAS
AL WEST
AL CENTRAL
AL EAST
OAK
SEA
TEX
CWS
CLE
DET
KC
MIN
BAL
BOS
NYY
TB
TOR

Follow Me
Latest posts by Doug "RotoDaddy" Anderson (see all)

More in Fantasy Baseball