The most talked about topic in March when it comes to fantasy baseball is Average Draft Position, or ADP. You will here throughout the month what player’s ADP is, whether their ADP is rising or falling, and is their ADP correct with their skills.
Average draft position is the determining factor to whether you think someone is overvalued or undervalued. Often times a player’s ADP can shift from the beginning of March to the end based on Spring Training play, injuries on the team, or other factors.
When I look at average draft position, I not only look at the player’s talent, but also compare that to the other players at the same position that he is being drafted around, and the players at the other positions that are going in the same round. Would I rather draft a particular player, or is another guy at the same position more desirable a couple rounds later? Or when my pick comes around would a player of similar talent at another position be better?
Finding a bunch of overvalued players is a fast way to fall out of contention quickly. Don’t reach too far for someone on your favorite team, don’t try to be too trendy with the young hot shot, and don’t take a tip from your friend. I’m not saying be a slave to average draft position by any means, study your players, and stick to your opinions.
Below are three infielders that I feel are being drafted sooner than they should be. Whether it be because of injury history, a player coming off a career year, or a player that I don’t believe is worthy of the draft position given the position he plays. As always, you can follow me on Twitter @fightingchance.
Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto Blue Jays
There was a time not too long ago where I would have endorsed Tulowitzki as a mid-first round pick. However, it has now been four years since he’s played anything that has resembled a full season, and now he no longer calls Coors Field home.
He was borderline on atrocious in his two months in Toronto, and it appears that his reputation as a product of Colorado might be true.
The injuries have also just taken too much of a toll on him. He has stolen just a single base for three straight seasons, his batting average dropped a whopping sixty points in 2015, and his home run numbers have dropped for three straight seasons.
Shortstop is a shallow position so Tulowitzki will definitely still carry some value, but the risk is far too great to make him a third or fourth round pick where his ADP currently sits and he is incredibly overvalued.
Take a solid outfielder like Justin Upton or Adam Jones, or a strong pitcher like Chris Archer or Stephen Strasburg, all who are being taken around the same draft position as Tulowitzki and your team will be much better for it.
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Carpenter is a nice player. He gives it his all, he maximizes his talent, and he is a gritty “gamer” that everyone wants on their team, their real team.
Unfortunately, there’s no points in Fantasy Baseball for effort or scrappy play and he is overvalued. Carpenter had a season for the ages last year as he hit more home runs in 2015 (28) than he had hit in the rest of his career combined (25).
At 30 years old, excuse me if I don’t believe this was a “breakout year” for him. Third base is probably as strong right now in terms of depth right now in fantasy baseball than I can remember in a very long time. The burst of talented young players have made your choice at third base easier than ever.
Allow me to lay this out for you. Given the rest of his career, I think you can expect Carpenter to hit around .285. I will even give him a slight bump in my power prediction and say he will hit 14 home runs. He should drive in about 75-80 runs and he never steals bases.
He is currently being drafted at least one round higher than Kyle Seager who has had four straight 20 homer seasons, and 50 picks before Maikel Franco who had 14 home runs in half a season last year, and I don’t think that makes sense. Let someone else spend a fifth or sixth round pick on the overvalued Carpenter and get a better player later.
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
This one is a little bit different for me. I’m not going to say that Hosmer is overvalued as far as his ranking in the first base position. I see him as a low level starter, or at worst just below being a starting first baseman.
I just feel he is overvalued as a sixth round pick, and that is where his ADP currently sits. He has never hit 20 home runs and he doesn’t steal many bases. Now while his batting average is more than acceptable, if you aren’t going to hit 20 home runs at first base, your batting average better be over .310.
Even on a terrible Braves team, I’d rather have Freddie Freeman who is being drafted at about the same position. Even better still, I’d rather take a chance on an up and coming young pitcher like Noah Syndergaard or Danny Salazar, both who are being drafted after him.
If you’ve waited this long for your starting first baseman, I’d rather wait and take a guy like Brandon Belt, or take a chance on Mark Teixeira staying healthy, Lucas Duda being consistent, or Carlos Santana not having a dreadful batting average than take Hosmer in the sixth round.