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Average Draft Position, or ADP is an invaluable tool to use in your Fantasy Football draft preparation.

A player’s ADP gives you a statistic of when he is most likely to be drafted. This can help you formulate your strategy if you are trying to gain the most value with each draft pick.

However, many Fantasy Owners do not use ADP correctly. It sounds stupid, but you can use the factual information provided in an incorrect way.

For example, looking at Standard ADP but you play in a PPR league. Or maybe you are using ADP data gathered from the entire summer to judge when Josh Gordon or Arian Foster might get drafted.

The key is finding the consensus data that is most relative to your league. You also need to realize that ADP is an average: it takes into account all extremes that a player might get taken.

Besides looking at the average spot that the player is taken, you should look at the sources of data (which platforms the drafts are coming from) as well as the high and low spots. For example, Adrian Peterson has a PPR ADP around 8th overall. If you play on Fantrax, his ADP is 6th. On My Fantasy League he is going 14th. The different rankings at the websites can drive these numbers as well as your own draft.

So keep your own league situation in mind as you analyze this ADP report from the beginning of August. I am going to compare the consensus Fantasy Pros ADP from June 29th with the data from August 1st.

2016 Fantasy Football ADP Report

ADP Risers

PPR Standard
Player ADP 6/29 ADP 8/1 Diff. Player ADP 6/29 ADP 8/1 Diff.
Gates, Antonio 142.7 111.5 31.2 Wilson, Russell 75 41 34
Powell, Bilal 144.3 118.5 25.8 Rivers, Philip 139.5 105.8 33.7
Thomas, Julius 118.3 94.3 24 Gates, Antonio 146 125.5 20.5
Foster, Arian 119.3 97.3 22 Newton, Cam 43.5 23.8 19.7
Smith, Torrey 131.1 111 20.1 Dixon, Kenneth 148.5 129.2 19.3
Prosise, C.J. 131.1 112.3 18.8 Blount, LeGarrette 138 118.8 19.2
Palmer, Carson 102.9 84.5 18.4 Rodgers, Aaron 47.5 28.3 19.2
Dixon, Kenneth 143.9 125.5 18.4 Sims, Charles 138.5 121 17.5
Woodhead, Danny 74 55.8 18.2 Jackson, Vincent 148.5 132.8 15.7
Johnson Jr., Duke 75.1 57 18.1 Gore, Frank 89.5 74.7 14.8

 

Observations

  • A common theme you will see with Average Draft Position is quarterbacks rising as the draft season goes on. The majority of “experts” wait as long as they can for their QB and this is what the early ADP is based off. Whenever the more recreational players start contributing, they drive the QB ADP higher.
  • Both lists are filled with veterans who are former Fantasy Studs. This is another effect of the less involved Fantasy Owners taking names they know (Gates, Smith, Jackson, Gore) over the up-and-coming players.
  • Danny Woodhead and Duke Johnson’s fast-rising ADP is probably due to people not realizing just how good they were in PPR formats last season (3rd and 23rd among backs last year).
  • Arian Foster is rising faster with PPR Average Draft Position because he was originally seen as the 3rd-down back in Miami. This could change more drastically as his training camp looks better and better.
  • I only included the Top 150 from the first set of data, which Josh Gordon was not within. Currently, his ADP is all over the place, ranging from 77 on one site, to 134 on another. He will definitely keep rising though.

 

ADP Fallers

PPR       Standard      
Player ADP 6/29 ADP 8/1 Diff. Player ADP 6/29 ADP 8/1 Diff.
Williams, Karlos 74.3 122.3 -48 Ebron, Eric 109.5 162 -52.5
Perriman, Breshad 140.9 175 -34.1 Aiken, Kamar 116 156.8 -40.8
Johnson, Chris 146.3 173.5 -27.2 Williams, Karlos 68 105.5 -37.5
Booker, Devontae 135.6 161.5 -25.9 Thomas, Michael 120 155.8 -35.8
Gostkowski, Stephen 120 145.7 -25.7 Riddick, Theo 89 124.4 -35.4
Thomas, Michael 128.6 151.3 -22.7 Perriman, Breshad 133.5 168.5 -35
Hill, Jeremy 52.6 73.3 -20.7 Cruz, Victor 134.5 167.6 -33.1
Riddick, Theo 73.6 92.3 -18.7 Benjamin, Travis 105 133.8 -28.8
Diggs, Stefon 93.6 111 -17.4 Treadwell, Laquon 98.5 123.2 -24.7
Crabtree, Michael 59 75.5 -16.5 Doctson, Josh 111 135.5 -24.5

 

Observations

  • Karlos Williams obviously stands out as he was dealt a 4-game suspension and showed up to camp looking like he was on the Eddie Lacy diet from last year.
  • The uncertainty surrounding the Ravens’ wide receivers is shown here with both Perriman and Aiken taking Average Draft Position tumbles.
  • Rookie receivers are all over these lists. A good amount of “experts” like to tout the rookie receivers so that they can say they were “first” to like them. This drives their early ADP up.
  • Victor Cruz’ inclusion is not surprising as he looks less and less likely to contribute much this season.
  • It appears people are buying the Ameer Abdullah Kool-Aid again as Theo Riddick appears on both lists. Riddick finished as RB18 last year in PPR and finished with 830 yards on just 123 touches.
  • The Eric Ebron free fall is surprising. I really have no clue why he has fallen so far, but I think he is a solid value now.

Wide Gaps

These are players whose consensus ADP does not tell the whole story. They have large gaps between their ADP on different sites/platforms, which can be misleading.

Rounds 1-4 Rounds 5-8
 Player Name High Low Diff.  Player Name High Low Diff.
Donte Moncrief 64 38 26 Sterling Shepard 122 83 39
Larry Fitzgerald 58 40 18 Tyler Eifert 88 50 38
Greg Olsen 53 38 15 Carson Palmer 104 68 36
Aaron Rodgers 52 38 14 Zach Ertz 114 78 36
Jordan Matthews 59 47 12 Corey Coleman 113 78 35
Jordan Reed 42 32 10 Blake Bortles 110 77 33
T.Y. Hilton 33 24 9 Eli Manning 112 79 33
Jeremy Maclin 43 34 9 Tom Brady 100 70 30
Eric Decker 57 48 9 Delanie Walker 77 50 27
Adrian Peterson 14 6 8 Tyler Lockett 86 59 27

 

Observations

  • Naturally, as you get later in the draft, the difference between different platform’s ADP grows exponentially.
  • Adrian Peterson is the only player consistently drafted in the first two rounds with a big disparity.
  • The lists are littered with young receivers on the verge of breaking out, whether they are rookies (Shepard, Coleman) or guys expected to get bigger roles (Moncrief, Lockett).
  • Tight ends seem to cause the biggest disparities in Average Draft Position. All three types of list have included several tight ends. I think this has to do with the different uses for the TE position in regards to roster/scoring. Some leagues start two of them while some give them a full point per reception and everyone else 0.5 points. This is where using an ADP geared toward your league is critical.
  • Josh Gordon should fit here, but his consensus ADP is so out of whack, it is not worth using yet.
  • I would bet Tom Brady has the most variance within the different websites as well. I have seen him go in the Rounds 3 and 4 in mocks, but I can promise he does not slip past me in the 7th.

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