Busts come in two common types: guys that deal with injuries or bad situations and players that get over-hyped due to small sample sizes.
The first type of bust has yielded us flopped seasons from Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, LeVeon Bell and Ray Rice in the past few years.
The second type gives us the remarkable list of C.J. Anderson, Montee Ball, Zac Stacy, and Trent Richardson.
I may be forced to take my chances with proven players avoiding injury, but you better believe I am not going to take the chance of an unproven player with a good, small sample size making the leap to star-status while also avoiding injury.
Let’s review the running back busts.
2016 Fantasy Football Running Back Busts
David Johnson is the epitome of the second type of bust. He had a three game sample in which he was the best Fantasy Back in the league: 472 yards, 11 catches and four touchdowns.
In the three games surrounding his hot streak, in which he also got the majority of the team’s carries, he totaled just 85 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.
I know, that still equals to a 1600-yard pace for about 11 touchdowns, but I am trying to point out the inconsistency in the Cardinals’ running game. I mean, David might not even be the Johnson that starts as the 30-year old Chris Johnson is still in the mix.
A running back competition is developing between Chris Johnson & David Johnson in Arizona: https://t.co/LqsvrHBhUW
— SB Nation NFL (@SBNationNFL) June 2, 2016
I am not saying David Johnson won’t be a starting-worthy running back this season. What I am saying is that using the sixth pick overall (THIRD overall on Yahoo!!!!) on a guy who has three career games with more than 11 carries and might not even start is ludicrous.
As I have lain out before, your first round pick will not win you the league, but it can lose it for you. Even if David Johnson leads the league in points, that does not mean you will win your league’s championship.
However, if he finishes as an unstartable player that you used a premium draft pick on, I would bet good money that you are not in contention.
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