Tight end busts are similar to busts at the quarterback position. The majority of the time they will not completely sink your team.
Outside of Rob Gronkowski, most Fantasy Owners will not take a tight end until round five or later. Some might even make it their last position player.
Last season we saw the emergence of some younger players that has made the tight end pool as deep as NBA Free Agents’ pockets are now.
Because of this development, there are definitely a few players that are being over-valued, and therefore likely to be busts.
Let’s get to some of those players now.
2016 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts
I can safely say that Jordan Reed will not be on a single one of my Fantasy Teams. I will avoid him as if he is a Donald Trump rally.
Reed is going as high as the middle of the third round in ESPN drafts, with an overall ADP of 35. On the surface this seems like a good price for a 26-year old coming off a 952-yard, 11-touchdown season. I am on the opposite end of the spectrum.
I think he is the second most over-valued player at this point in the draft season (after David Johnson). Reed has missed 14 games over his first three seasons. The majority of these missed games are due to severe concussions. It’s one thing if a guy like Jamaal Charles is unlucky enough to tear each of his ACL’s. It is completely different with concussions, which are a progressive injury: they keep getting worse.
Beside the fact that I don’t trust the fourth-year Redskin to stay on the field for more than two-thirds of the season, I don’t trust his production. Reed played 20 games in his first two seasons, totaling 964 yards and just three touchdowns. So the real question is if 2015 was an outlier or the new normal.
A big factor in making the decision on Reed is how you feel about Kirk Cousins. Will Cousins be able to build upon a solid first season as a starter? I am on the side that there is major regression coming for their whole offense.
Most importantly, I think Reed’s 10 Red Zone touchdowns are due for a steep drop-off. With their first-round pick Washington took TCU receiver Josh Doctson. Doctson scored 25 touchdowns over his last two seasons as a Horned Frog with SEVENTEEN career Red Zone touchdown receptions.
Doctson is Dez Bryant-esque in the end zone. His ability to contort his 6’2’’ frame will make him the key Red Zone target for Washington this season.
If Reed loses out on even a third of his Red Zone production, along with regression in overall yardage from Kirk Cousins and the high probability of an injury, then you are looking at a borderline non-starter at the position, instead of a Top-2 guy.
- Early Look Ahead to the 2019 Fantasy Football Season - December 31, 2018
- Week 14 DFS Strategy: Deciphering the New Starting Running Landscape - December 9, 2018
- Week 13 DFS Strategy : The Quest For 170 Points And A Win - December 1, 2018