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What do Wide Receiver Busts look like?

Might be easier if we talked about what it doesn’t look like. First off, any WR taken in the 10th round or later might be a disappointment. But that is not a “WR bust.” A WR taken at that point is likely taken as a bye-week replacement or to provide depth. While I think those taking Josh Gordon (current ADP is late 10th round) are wasting their 10th round pick, the cost of doing so is minimal.

While a WR bust is almost assuredly likely to regress, it is not the same as a regression candidate either. For example, the Fantasy community is pretty much in agreement that Doug Baldwin is going to regress this year. Baldwin was the 10th best WR last year, but is currently the 23rd best WR being drafted. His expected regression is already baked into his draft slot. Therefore, I don’t expect Baldwin to be a WR bust.

This doesn’t mean a regression candidate can’t be a bust also. There are other WRs whose regression tendency is already included in their cost, but unlike the case of Baldwin, there is not enough of a “discount” and I consider them a likely WR bust. A WR Bust is the player you are going to look at after the season and really wish you hadn’t picked them when you did.

Here are my forecasted failures:

 

2016 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts

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DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (ADP: 7.9)

Relax, the guy is going to be a Top 20 WR, easily. However, he’s not going to deliver first round value, where his current ADP of 7.9 or fourth overall WR lies.

Hopkins saw a gazillion targets when the Texans started off on a horrible losing streak, but his target output dropped as the Texans defense began to keep them in games. And that was with Jonathan Grimes and Alfred Blue “leading” the Texas ground game. With Lamar Miller now filling that role, expect a lot more running and therefore a lot less targets going Hopkins’ way. He’ll still get his and should be a dependable WR1, but there are at least four WRs after him I like more that cost a lot less.

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DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (ADP: 7.9)

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