ADP analysis can be extremely important; however, context is key. Fantasy owners have to be careful not to take ADP values as the be all and end all. They are just an average and it is equally as valuable to consider both the minimum and maximum values.
Every league is its own beast and all drafts unfold differently. If you start your draft with Clayton Kershaw then you will value certain players and positions differently than if you draft Billy Hamilton early or attack the closer position early. The purpose of ADP analysis is to have a rough idea where certain players are being picked. It is not intended to tell you when to pick a specific player.
Last week, we kicked off our Mispriced Pairs series by taking a look at infielders. Today, our ADP analysis takes us to the outfield. Once again, we will be using NFBC ADP data along with statistical projections from FantasyPros.
Our ADP analysis will show that these pairs of players have an ADP gap that is too large given their strikingly similar Fantasy production. Whenever you go to the store and you are given two basically identical options, you would obviously choose the item with the lower price. Drafting your Fantasy team should be no different. When two players that play the same position offer up the same expected production, you should never pick the more expensive player.
Now that we have laid the groundwork, let see the results of our ADP analysis and three pairs of mispriced outfielders.
2017 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Mispriced Pairs, Outfielder Edition
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
There is no doubt that Joey Bats is coming off a disappointing, injury plagued campaign that saw him limited to just 116 games. Despite his struggles, Bautista still managed to post the seventh best hard hit rate among qualified hitters with a mark north of 41-percent, a new career high. In fact, he placed comfortably ahead of the 16th ranked Trumbo and his 39.3-percent hard hit rate. While the 36-year-old is no spring chicken, it is easy to forget that he is just one year removed from hitting 40 bombs along with reaching triple digits in both runs and RBIs.
When you compare the stats of Bautista and Trumbo over the past two years you can see there is not much separation between the two. With Trumbo back with the O’s, he should continue to be one of the game’s top sluggers. The projection systems also seem to agree that Bautista will return to the same select group as the forecasts for both Trumbo and Bautista look similar to say the least. One could argue that Bautista should be selected prior to Trumbo given their bodies of work; however, with a near 50-point ADP gap it becomes a no-brainer to be patient and choose the man that plays for Canada’s team.
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals
McCutchen appears to be slowing down as he is no longer the stolen base threat that he was in the past. He used to be a shoo-in for 20 bags a year, but he has only swiped 17 bags over the past two campaigns combined. Last year, McCutchen also posted his career worst strikeout rate, career low walk rate, career worst popup rate, and lowest hard hit rate since 2011. There is no question that McCutchen is still a solid Fantasy asset to any team, but he just isn’t the 5×5 stud that he was in the past.
When you compare the numbers over the past two seasons, the aggregate totals are skewed due to the fact that Piscotty only appeared in 63 games in his rookie campaign in 2015. Last year, Piscotty outperformed McCutchen in four of the five major roto categories. In fact, home runs were the only statistic where McCutchen held the upper hand and that was by a mere two long balls.
McCutchen’s name value has provided a premium in his draft price. While Piscotty’s lack of MLB resume and the fact that he doesn’t excel in any one roto category seem to have depressed his stock. Thanks to the 63-point ADP gap, Fantasy owners have an easy decision to make. Pass on the Pirate and nab the Red Bird.
New Zip Code, Same Player
Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals
Dexter Fowler, St. Louis Cardinals
Both of these power-speed outfielders will be playing for new teams in 2017. Eaton likely receives the greatest advantage as the Nationals placed nine spots higher than the White Sox in team OPS last year. Absent that difference, I see nothing but similarities. They will both hit leadoff. They both play centerfield. They should both reach double digits in home runs and stolen bases and they should both approach triple digits in runs.
When you look at their stats over the past two seasons, you can clearly see that despite playing 29 fewer games, Fowler’s numbers compare quite favorably to Eaton’s. While Eaton does hold a fairly significant batting average advantage, it is somewhat mitigated by Fowler’s superior on-base percentage. I would definitely group these players into the same tier and would take advantage of the over 60-point ADP gap by passing on Eaton and waiting for Fowler.
When you are playing Fantasy Baseball, you need to be buying the numbers and not the name on the jersey. ADP analysis allows you to attach a cost to a Player A’s expected production in comparison to Player B’s expected production. This process will ensure that the cheapest price is attained.
With both infielders and outfielders completed, our ADP analysis will now search for mispriced pairs of pitchers. Be sure to check back in with the So-Called Fantasy Experts for this and all of your preseason Fantasy Baseball coverage.
Data courtesy of www.fangraphs.com
|2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit|
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- 2018 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Mispriced Pairs; Pitcher Edition - March 13, 2018
- 2018 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: 5 Mispriced Pairs; Infielder Edition - March 5, 2018
- The Fantasy Lookout: A Look Towards 2018; Sleeper And Bust Edition - September 20, 2017