I’m here today to look at the NFBC Average Draft Position (ADP) Rankings that are published over at NFBC.  

In the table below I will show the NFBC Top 150 player rankings with their average pick (Avg Pick), minimum pick (Min Pick) and maximum pick (Max Pick).

I also provided some notes on the Top 50 players by position.

Also, be sure and check out our positional rankings.

Now that the formality is out of the way, I will look in depth at the rankings.

NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis

Overall Rankings

Let’s take a look at some interesting notes I see in the first 50 players.

Catcher

NFBC Catcher Rankings

The first catcher off the board(no surprise), is Buster Posey. Posey is the consensus top catcher. And if he doesn’t have it already, he will more than likely get 1B eligibility sometime during the season. What blows me away is that Gary Sanchez is ranked as the second catcher and the 48^th overall player.

I love what Sanchez did in his limited time in the bigs last year, but to have him ranked ahead of Jonathan Lucroy seems odd to me. Some will say “well it’s only six spots.” It’s not just the gap between the two catchers, look at the other position players being overlooked in favor of Sanchez. Ryan Braun, Billy Hamilton, J.D. Martinez and Ian Desmond.

You are also passing on an established arm in Chris Archer who could be dealt to a contender during the season. Archer had 19 Quality Starts (QS) last season. Which was good for 21^st in the league. He also had 233 strikeouts in 201.1 innings pitched.

Another surprise is Willson Contreras, who will get outfield eligibility, all the way at 88th. Fantasy Baseball is all about flexibility.

First Basemen

NFBC First Basemen Rankings

No surprise that Paul Goldschmidt is first. Not only is he a power hitter, but he can also steal you bases. That type of player is not usually someone you find at first base. The next names off the board are pretty standard.

Two guys that didn’t make it into the Top 150 that I think could surprise some people are Tommy Joseph and Brandon Belt. Joseph has the full time job this year and did admirably last year, splitting time with Ryan Howard. And Belt, the Baby Giraffe, is coming into his own with the Giants. I would not be surprised to see them both finish ahead of Eric Hosmer, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez.

Second Basemen

NFBC Second Basemen Rankings

The biggest surprise here is Trea Turner going as the second 2B and 10th player overall. I love Turner’s skills, I’m just not sure he should be going as high as he is. I go into more detail here.

The same reason I believe Turner is going too high, is a reason why Jose Peraza could be a good poach later in drafts; steals. He’s got the starting gig and should get some reasonable home run numbers in Great American Ballpark. He could be a steal as the 12th second baseman off the board.

Third Basemen

NFBC Third Basemen Rankings

We are splitting hairs with the top third basemen. Kris Bryant is the reigning MVP, Manny Machado has Shortstop eligibility and Nolan Arenado is the NL home run co-champ with Chris Carter.

Maikel Franco could out perform his number 14 ranking.

Players that could jump to the 10-15 range include Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos. Ranked as the 19th and 20th third basemen of the board. I see both players doing better than Jake Lamb this year.

Shortstop

NFBC Shortstops Rankings

I have no problem with four of the Top 5. However, can Jonathan Villar replicate his steal numbers? I’m not sure that he can.

The next wild card is Trevor Story at six. He was having a very nice season before his injury. Playing in Coors Field helps, and I cannot say to grab anyone behind him before he goes off the board. I would say just try and manage expectations.

Someone who could soar up the ranks is Orlando Arcia, who made his major league debut last seasonand is also one-year younger than Francisco Lindor. Let’s take a look at their 5 years in the Minor Leagues

As you can see, Arcia was the better player in the minors. Lindor has adapted to become a very good hitter. Maybe this is the year Arcia breaks out, but with a 230 pick gap between them, you can get real value here.

Outfielder

NFBC Outfielder Rankings

It is no surprise that Mike Trout is the consensus number one overall pick. He should be. The only real complaint I have in the Top 10 is Giancarlo Stanton. I understand what his power potential is, but he just cannot stay healthy. He’s been susceptible hamstring and quadricep injuries. Those can be chalked up to conditioning, even though he is a physical specimen. The two injuries out of his control were the hit by pitch in the face and the left hamate bone fracture.

Meanwhile, Stanton is going 38th overall. While being the eighth outfielder off the board might be a discount to some, I would look elsewhere at that current cost.

Other players that could make some noise in the rankings are Ian Desmond, Stanton’s teammate Christian Yelich, David Dahl and Andrew Benintendi.

Starting Pitcher

NFBC Starting Pitcher Rankings

There are not a whole lot of problems at the top. The biggest questions in the Top 15 is Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco’s health.

Looking toward the bottom of the rankings, Jose Quintana, Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey stand out. In fact, it seems more likely that Quintana gets dealt during the season. With his QS numbers (tied for sixth in the league with 23 last season), if he’s moved to a team that gives him run support, look out.

Next question is can King Felix can bounce back or is his decline real. His innings, strikeouts and K/9 are down across the board.

The final question is how will Harvey bounce back from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery? If he can come back to 80 percent of what he used to be, he could be a nice grab in the middle of your draft.

Relief Pitcher

NFBC Relief Pitcher Rankings

No real surprises at the top. Bullpens are always changing, but a couple names to keep an eye on are Wade Davis, Alex Colome, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Brandon Maurer.

Davis is coming back from a forearm strain. Regardless, the Cubs thought he checked out well enough to send Jorge Soler for him in a trade this off-season.

Alex Colome and David Robertson are potential trade candidates.

Jeurys Familia is coming back from suspension and, as a result, may lose his job altogether to Addison Reed in the interim.

Brandon Maurer will be trying to hold onto the job as he will have Carter Capps breathing down his neck.

So there are my thoughts on the NFBC ADP Rankings. Who do you believe is ranked too high, or someone who will outperform their current ADP? Let us know in the comments.

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Derek Harvey

Derek is an avid fantasy player, playing keeper and dynasty formats for two decades. This is his first year writing about fantasy sports. Have any questions about dynasty football, baseball or basketball? Ask me on twitter @derek_harvey.

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